Marblehead Q3 housing market – on track for new record high
As often happens in a seasonal market, 2016 has seen some large variations in the quarterly median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Marblehead. In Q3, the median price was $618,500. While this was the 5th quarter in the last 8 to see a median price over $600,000, it was somewhat lower than last year’s very high figure.
YTD through 9 months the median price is $612,500, down 1% from last year’s $619,000. Because the majority of the Q4 sales are already under agreement, however, I can be confident that the median price for 2016 as a whole will exceed $600,000 for the first time.
In this report I will look at the Q3 numbers, the YTD numbers and also give a preview of where I think the year will end up.
Q3 prices
The chart and table show the quarterly median prices for the last 6 years.
YTD numbers
An unusually low or high median price in Q4 can impact the price for the full year. That did not happen in 2012-14 when the 9M and full year figures were quite close, but in both 2011 and 2015 the Q4 number was so much lower (based in each year on the mix of sales) that the median price for the full year was over $20,000 lower than the 9M figure.
Sales
Since recovering from the Great Recession sales for the full year have been between 227 and 245. Through 9 months we are at 188, with 43 pending sales, so it looks as though the full year will be in the vicinity of 240.
Available for Sale
While the numbers in themselves are quite small, there has still been a roughly 25% drop in supply from 2014 to 2016.
Outlook for 2016
The 43 pending sales have a median list price of around $680,000. YTD sales have taken place on average at 97% of list price, thus suggesting a median sales price of around $660,000 for the pending sales. Adding that to the 188 sales that have already closed this year would produce a median price for the year of about $625,000. More houses will go under agreement and close before the year end, however, so the final outcome will depend upon the prices of those additional sales.
The existing record for a year in Marblehead is the $596,500 achieved in 2015. A very dramatic swing to lower-priced houses would need to occur in the next few weeks for that record not to be beaten in 2016.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Open Houses Sunday October 9
As promised here are tomorrow’s Open Houses so that you can plan your day, bearing in mind that the vast majority of these OHs will start between 11:00 and 12:00. Note that if you are not a Tom Brady fan, or are willing to DVR the first half, you may find less competition at the later OHs:
This Marblehead beach house is open from 12:00-1:30.
And here is the full list:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
New Listings week ending October 8
A quiet week for new listings ahead of Columbus Day. Also, with the return of Tom Brady, note that the vast majority of Open Houses tomorrow will take place between 11:00 and 1:00 or 1:30. I will publish the list today at 5 p.m. rather than tomorrow morning to allow buyers time to plan their schedule. Get out your running shoes!
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Marblehead’s cheapest Oceanfront property
There are currently 8 Oceanfront properties for sale in Marblehead at prices ranging from just under $3 million to just under $6 million. The cheapest in both list price and price per square foot is 11 Crown Way.
There have been 7 Oceanfront sales in 2016 and, excluding one sale which was based on land value rather than the existing house, the average price per sq.ft. was $667 and the median $677.
Note that the price per sq.ft. for 11 Crown Way does not include the 2,400 sq.ft. carriage house.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Open Houses Sunday October 2
Plenty of choices at today’s Open Houses:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing Inventory down 20%
Housing inventory is down just over 20% from last year in the whole of Essex County and is down by a quarter since 2014. The drop from 2014 to 2015 was quite modest, but has been sharp over the last year. Just 3 of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns show an increase in supply from last year, with 31 showing declines, in many cases substantial ones.
As sales for September are updated in MLS over the next few days I will publish an article showing the inventory in terms of months of supply based upon sales for the last 3 and last 12 months.
Here are the numbers by town:
Comment
Low mortgage rates, an economy growing steadily if not spectacularly and low inventory continue to drive the market in Essex County.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
New Listings week ending September 30
A steady, but slow, stream of new listings this week, with Salem condos the only sector showing a significant increase from last week:
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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