Classic Marblehead home has beautiful features
Here is the Marblehead Reporter review of 76 Bubier Road
Please call or text me on 617.834.8205 to schedule a private viewing.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday June 9
A beautiful day for today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Magnificent Marblehead Harbor View House: Open House Today
The next phase of your exceptional life starts right here. For those who appreciate refined elegance, this 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom Marblehead home reflects the grace and grandeur of a bygone era.
You have to experience this timeless home in person. There is an Open House today 12:00-1:30 or you can arrange a private tour by contacting me on 617.834.8205 or andrew.oliver@sothebysrealty.com.
Click 76 Bubier Road to go to the website and 3D for a 3D tour inside the house.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Michael Douglas/ Catherine Zeta-Jones take huge price hit
Being rich and famous does not guaranty top dollar when selling property as Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta-Jones are discovering as they seek to sell their Exquisite estate in southern Europe in Mallorca, Spain.
The property was first listed for sale 6 years ago at $60 million. The latest price? Just $32.5 million. So hurry up for the chance to save $27.5 million.
One bonus for the new buyers is a video narrated by Michael Douglas:
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses weekend June 8 and 9
Here are the weekend’s Open Houses. Remember to check at 8 a.m. tomorrow for an updated list of Sunday’s Open Houses.
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings June 7
Here are the latest new listings:
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
Lynn new listings
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“Home prices drop for the 12th consecutive month.” Really?
The above headline is from a recent article written by a mortgage broker. (Not the “really?” That came from me.)
The next headline in the article was: Appreciation slowdown hits the one-year mark.
And then it read: According to new data from CoreLogic, March marked one full year of slowing growth for U.S. home prices. They rose just 3.7 percent between March 2018 and March 2019 (my italics).
Ah, so now we are getting to the truth. The rate of increase has been slowing for the last year, but prices are still 3.7% higher than they were a year ago.
Let’s look at two charts. The first, the point in the headline (however incorrectly worded) shows the rate of growth:
The second shows actual home prices:
Now, when I buy a product, let’s say a pineapple , I ask “what’s the price?” I don’t ask: “how much has the cost of this pineapple gone up in the last year?” Unfortunately, I cannot buy the pineapple at last year’s prices – I have to pay today’s price. Same with houses.
The annual compound rate of growth in national house prices from 2000-2018 was 3.6%. None of us buys a “national average” house nor pays a “national average” price. As buyers and sellers know only too well, many factors – many of them emotional – go into the decision to buy or sell a house. And for the vast majority of people buying a house is buying a home, a place to bring up a family.
I have been saying consistently since late last year that my outlook for 2019 was for a slowing, but still growing economy and, locally, for a stable housing market.
In last week’s article Why are mortgage rates plummeting? I quoted the Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board: “The biggest economic risk of a Donald Trump Presidency has always been that his trade obsessions would swamp the benefits of tax reform and deregulation. For two years he has kept his worst protectionist impulses mostly in check, but as he seeks a second term we are now seeing Tariff Man unchained. Where he stops nobody knows, which is bad for the economy and perhaps his own re-election.”
And here is another quote this week from the same source: “The stock market on Friday rallied as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to counter trade uncertainty. But as we learned in the Obama years, monetary policy alone can’t overcome bad fiscal, trade or regulatory policy. The May jobs report is a flashing yellow light that Mr. Trump needs to settle his trade wars and get back to promoting growth.”
The reason that interest rates and mortgage rates are dropping (the Freddie Mac 30 year FRM was 3.82% this week) is the slowing economy and increasing uncertainty caused by the President’s tariff obsession. Should the economic numbers continue to herald a significant slowdown the Federal Reserve is indeed likely to cut rates to try to stimulate the economy. Last year the Fed increased interest rates in order to prevent the huge tax cuts over-stimulating the economy and causing inflation. I think the Fed did a good job last year and I would expect it again to act to add stimulus to try to counteract the negative impact of tariffs and tariff threats.
I shall end by repeating the last sentence of last week’s article: “The natural tendency and hope is that all these issues will blow over quickly and not have a damaging effect on the economy. But the bond market is sending out warning signals.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week June 5
Here are the most recent New Listings. Note that the number of SFHs for sale in Marblehead has reached a new high for 2019:
Marblehead new listings
Swampscott new listings
Salem new listings
Beverly new listings
Lynn new listings
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Are solar panels right for your home?
The Boston Globe recently published Sometimes solar panels are not a good fit for your home , exploring the benefits – and challenges – of solar panels.
The article included this comment:
Matt Dolan, a broker with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty in Marblehead who has panels on his home, said some developers and homeowners got caught up chasing green building certifications and haven’t been able to recoup their investments.
“People got out too far over their skis with solar and thought anytime you made a green addition to a house that you’d instantly win, and it’s just not the case. A lot of people don’t actually care that much,’’ Dolan said. He pointed to a home that was renovated to LEED Platinum standards a decade ago, complete with solar and geothermal energy. “The reality is it’s a $2 million home that we’re marketing for $1.4 million, because no one is willing to pay an ultra premium just because it has the green credentials.’’
I wrote Solar panels: are they right for you? back in 2015 and followed up in 2016 with Solar roof tiles 2.0 – a major improvement. Alas, like a number of Elon Musk’s promises, solar roof tiles remain just that – a promise. In 2018 a CNBC investigation found only 12 houses with Tesla’s solar roof tiles and one of those cost the homeowner $100,000. Nice idea – shame about the price.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday June 2
Put on your running shoes for today’s Open House bonanza:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open Houses
Lynn Open Houses
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Magnificent Marblehead Harbor View House: First Open House
The next phase of your exceptional life starts right here. For those who appreciate refined elegance, this 5 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom Marblehead home reflects the grace and grandeur of a bygone era.
You have to experience this timeless home in person. First Open House today 12:00-1:30 or you can arrange a private tour by contacting me on 617.834.8205 or andrew.oliver@sothebysrealty.com.
Click 76 Bubier Road to go to the website and 3D for a 3D tour inside the house.
Why are mortgage rates plummeting?
Freddie Mac’s national average 30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage dropped to 3.99% this week, but with interest rate falling sharply later in the week that number is likely to drop further this week, perhaps to 3 7/8%.
Why are rates falling?
Let us look at two charts:FRM and the US Treasury 10 year (10T) yield.
Mortgages are bundled together and sold to investors. Because mortgage are riskier than US Treasuries investors demand a premium to the yield on 10T. This premium is known as the spread. In recent years that spread has averaged around 1.7%. Add that to the 10T yield and you get a pretty good idea of where FRM will be.
This is the what, but now the why. Why are interest rates plummeting?
In broad terms, the yield on 10T reflects two main factors: the outlook for the US economy and the demand by investors for a “safe haven” in a time of uncertainty.
I have written several times in recent months that the outlook for the US is a slowing, but still growing economy, and for a stable housing market. It is clear that the world economy is slowing and also that increased tariffs are contributing to that slowing – and to growing uncertainty.
This blog tries to stick to real estate and economic commentary so I will just quote from an Editorial in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal headed Tariff Man Unchained: “The biggest economic risk of a Donald Trump Presidency has always been that his trade obsessions would swamp the benefits of tax reform and deregulation. For two years he has kept his worst protectionist impulses mostly in check, but as he seeks a second term we are now seeing Tariff Man unchained. Where he stops nobody knows, which is bad for the economy and perhaps his own re-election.”
On the verge of a trade deal with China, the President announced new tariffs. On the day that the new Mexico/Canada/US trade agreement was sent to Congress the President announced new tariffs against Mexico. All these actions, to say the least, create uncertainty. And as the number of countries against whom the President has announced tariffs mounts, so does the possibility that the rest of the world will decide that the US is an unreliable partner and seek alliances amongst themselves.
It may be that the President feels that traditional diplomacy has been to the advantage of other countries (although the US is still the richest country in the world) and that he can use the bully pulpit to change the balance of trade. The danger of using the bully pulpit is that those who are bullied tend not to like being bullied and have long memories. And the Chinese in particular have not only long memories but long time perspectives.
The WSJ article ends: “But then Tariff Man is impulsive and often his own worst enemy. Equities have fallen for six straight weeks and corporate profits are down. The job market is strong, but that isn’t guaranteed if investment starts to lag. Senate Republicans need to get off their sedan chairs and send this President a message on trade, or they may be in the minority in 2021.” And that prospect may well influence the way the rest of the world responds to the latests threats.
The natural tendency and hope is that all these issues will blow over quickly and not have a damaging effect on the economy. But the bond market is sending out warning signals.
Housing Supply by Price in North Shore Towns
Conventional wisdom is that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current inventory represents 6 months of sales. Currently, as shown in the tables below, the overall inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County represents just 3.1 months of supply, indicating that the market still favours sellers.
But overall numbers can disguise large differences in supply at different price points. The first table shows two supply numbers: in Marblehead, Swampscott and Beverly for prices under $750,000 and for prices above that level; in Salem, Lynn and Essex County overall the numbers are for prices under $500,000 and for prices about that level.
Notice how supply increases dramatically at higher price points. The following tables for individual towns break down that supply further.
Marblehead
The market comes into equilibrium above $600,000 and favours buyers above $1.5 million. Note that generally higher priced houses take longer to sell and also often see higher sales in summer months. (more…)
Housing Inventory back to 2017 levels
For the 12th consecutive month the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased compared with the same month of the previous year. For the last two months the 2019 number has returned to the levels of 2017.
Condos
The number of Condos for sale increased, compared with the same month of the prior year, for the 13th consecutive month in June.For the last two months the number has been running ahead of 20-17 levels. (more…)
Open Houses the first weekend of Summer
A host of Open Houses this weekend (check back tomorrow at 8 a.m. for an updated Sunday list): (more…)
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