Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: Q3 GDP growth
This was the title of the first report I wrote for the Marblehead Reporter back in 2008.*
The phrase came to my mind when I saw these two headlines on Thursday:
“US GDP surged a record 33% in the 3rd quarter as the economy reopened, roughly double the next-biggest jump.” (Business Insider)
“U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected” (CNBC)
Wow! What amazing growth! As CNBC says – and they are financial experts – the economy is booming!
But wait a minute….. 22.6 million people were claiming unemployment benefits when the Government last reported numbers on October 10, compared with just 1.4 million a year ago. How does that square with a booming economy? (more…)
Gorilla invades Marblehead
Tom Saltsman, the Marblehead architect, is famous for creating larger-than-life Halloween installations at his home, 32 Pleasant Street. This year his creation is Kong, a 22 ft tall gorilla. The big ape is crouching in front of Saltsman’s garage. When he awakes this weekend, Kong will make movements and noises. To maintain suspense, Saltsman didn’t want to reveal any more details.
Halloween New Listings
Here are the latest New Listings. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
Open Houses Halloween weekend
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)
Open Houses Sunday October 25
As always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday: (more…)
Open Houses weekend October 24/25
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday. (more…)
New Listings week ending October 23
Here are the latest New Listings. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
New Listings mid-week October 21
These are the latest New Listings. (more…)
Mortgage demand slows, but is still far ahead of a year ago
“Homebuyer demand is incredibly strong compared with last year, but there appears to be a slight pullback this month.
A drop in buyer demand caused total mortgage application volume to fall 0.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
Applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week, the fourth straight week of declines. Purchase demand is down nearly 7% compared with four weeks ago. Volume, however, is still 26% higher than one year ago.
The drop may be seasonal, although not much has conformed to normal patterns in the year of Covid-19. It may be more a factor of the incredibly low supply of homes for sale. Inventory continues to set record lows, especially at the entry level of the market.
Strong demand is outstripping any new supply coming onto the market, thanks to consistently low mortgage rates, which set a new record two weeks ago.
Rates did move slightly higher last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.02% from 3%, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was a full percentage point higher a year ago.((CNBC.)
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Swampscott Q3 2020 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the first 9 months of 2020 increased 4.1%, breaking $600,000 for the first time. Sales were steady, while the median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 7 days. (more…)
Marblehead Q3 2020 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
In Q3, the first full quarter of sales post the COVID-19 slowdown in March and April, the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold jumped to $846,000, more than $100,000 higher than any prior quarter. The median price in the first 9 months of the year increased 5.3% to a new record of $750,000.
Sales were steady as was the median Days to Offer (DTO) at 12. (more…)
Open Houses Sunday October 18
As always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday: (more…)
Salem Q3 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) jumped 13.3% to $490,000. Sales eased a little from last year’s record level, and the median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 7 days. (more…)
Essex County Q3 2020 Housing Market Report
[Click here to download a copy of this report]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2020 (YTD Q3) jumped 11.8% to $532,500, comfortable breaking through the $500,000 level for the first time. Every one of the 34 cities and towns saw a Year on Year increase. Most of the sales decline occurred in the COVID-19 impacted Q2. The median Days to Offer (DTO) was just 10 days. (more…)
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