Mortgage Rates are Rising

On January 9th I published Are mortgage rates about to rise? which started with:
“Following the Georgia Senate election results, which gave control of the Senate to the Democrats, along with the House of Representatives and the White House, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note (10T) – the most sensitive to increased Government spending – jumped from 0.93% on Monday to 1.13% on Friday, based upon the expectation that increased Government spending would lead to more borrowing which would need higher interest rates to attract investors.”

Since then the yield on 10T has climbed further, spending this week around the $1.30 level before closing yesterday at $1.34.

Why does this matter for mortgage rates?  Because the rate on the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is based upon an extra yield – spread – that investors require over that available on 10T. The national average reported on Thursday ( based on rates from Monday-Wednesday) was 2.81%, up from the record low of 2.65% in January, and indications are that the rate will rise again next week.

Here are three charts:
The FRM since the beginning of 2020:

Mortgage rates

The 10T yield:

US Treasuries

 

And the Spread between the two (this chart starts in 2005):

Mortgage rates

For most of the last 15 years the spread has been in the 1.6-1.8% range. The major exceptions have occurred during times of financial stress – in the Great Recession of 2008 and in the pandemic of 2020. But when the stress diminishes, the spread returns to its normal range.

I strongly recommend the weekly Market Trends from HSH.com (click HSH.com to subscribe) for really good commentary on the economy and mortgage markets. In this week’s newsletter they write: “As the economy continues to slowly recover from pandemic-interrupted activity, the process is sure to be an uneven one. However, if there’s an accumulation of solid news in a short period, it would be sufficient to lift interest rates a little bit, expanding the distance from previous record lows. In general, that’s what happened this week, and will be the proximate cause of another bump in mortgage rates next week.

To be sure, interest rates can only rise so far at a time when millions remain out of work, the economy hasn’t yet filled in the output gap caused my pandemic-related interruptions in economic activity and the Fed remains steadfastly committed to low-rate and extraordinary monetary policies. But market-engineered interest rates can still move upward, since these rely on investor perspectives about future levels of growth, inflation and hedges against whenever the Fed may start to trim bond buys and consider raising interest rates.”

For the last year the Federal Reserve has been pouring vast amounts of cash into the monetary system, action that has both driven short-term rates down sharply and contributed to a rise in asset prices as seen in a booming stock market. In recent weeks, the market chatter has been more about when interest rates will rise rather than if. And market expectations can be self-fulfilling.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) published its forecast for mortgage rates this week. While the MBA has a track record of forecasting rising mortgage rates, it is worth noting that the latest forecasts are for the FRM to reach 3.4% by the end of 2021, 3.9% in 2020 and 4.4% in 2023.

While I applaud the bravery of anybody who attempts to make long-range forecasts, I pay little attention to them. HSH, however, has also forecast that the FRM could reach as high as 3.44% this year.

I will conclude as I usually do with this one chart, perhaps the most important one in this article. By any historical standard mortgage rates are extremely attractive. And 15-year mortgages the most attractive of all for those who can afford the higher monthly payment.

Mortgage rates

Mortgage Markets Return to Normal
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

Andrew Oliver

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

New Listings week ending February 19

Here are the latest New Listings:

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Click on these links for details:

Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings

These tables show that inventory is greatly reduced from a year ago, when levels were already low:

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And read these recent articles:
Marblehead record $7 million sale
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

Mortgage rates rise at the fastest pace in months*

On January 9th I published Are mortgage rates about to rise?.

At that time the yield on the US Treasury 10-Year Note (10T) – the benchmark for the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage (FRM) – had risen to 1.13%, compared with a low of under 0.6% last August.

Well, as of this morning, the yield on 10T is standing at 1.29%. The FRM as of last Thursday’s Freddie Mac survey was 2.73%, but will rise this week, possibly sharply.

My January article concluded: “A number of factors will influence the course of interest rates in the coming months, but at this point it looks as though 2.65% may represent the low point for the FRM.”

I will publish an updated review of mortgage rates this coming Saturday.

*This morning’s headline from CNBC

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Pierre Cardin’s $400M ‘Bubble Palace’ in France Up for Sale

“House-hunting in the Cannes, France, area and find modern linearity staid, or downright stolid? Then you may want to take a tour of Pierre Cardin’s 1970s fantasy of a mansion: Palais Bulles, the ‘Bubble Palace’ that the late fashion czar owned for the past three decades. The home is looking for a new owner, and first hit the market in 2017 for $420 million.” The current price is available on request, according to American Luxury article which includes more photos.

Pierre Cardin

“Each of the home’s ten bedrooms received a unique treatment at the hands of a different prominent designer of the era. Lines are graceful, but on the whole surprisingly less extravagant than one might expect. It is large, though; interiors measure in at a whisker less than 13,000 sq. ft. and the property’s living areas are distributed over six levels on a promontory setting overlooking Cannes and Nice.

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To enhance its Mediterranean setting, there are many indoor/outdoor living spaces, as well as a series of swimming pools and water features amid the tropical and semi tropical plantings and lawns. There are over two acres of terraces and gardens to augment this extraordinary house.”

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Well, yes, I suppose one would expect an “extraordinary” house for an “extraordinary” price.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

Open Houses on Valentine’s Day

7 of the 9 SFHs for sale under $1 million in Marblehead have Open Houses today – a perfect Valentine’s gift:

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Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
Lynn Open Houses

And a look at inventory compared with a year ago:

Inentory

How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Are mortgage rates about to rise?
Essex County 2021 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Open Houses Valentine’s weekend

Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. Be aware that with such low inventory, many new listings receive offers before the weekend Open Houses.
This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)

New Listings before Valentine’s Day

Card? Check. Flowers? check. What else: how about a new home?
New Listings

Click on these links for the New Listings: (more…)

New Listings mid-week February 10

Another storm, another ring for Brady, and another week with few new listings: (more…)

Go PATS (South)

While it might be tempting for New England fans to suggest that this Super Bowl should have an asterisk pointing out that the Patriots were not playing, there is the fact that we shall still get to see TB12 and Gronk (albeit in rather ugly brown uniforms).

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NGSC Sports

One of my over-riding beliefs in life is to acknowledge and celebrate excellence. Larry Bird once said (according to my memory, at least) that he could see little pleasure in putting all the best players on one team. To him, taking a good team and making it into a championship team was the height of achievement. Which is what Brady has done in Tampa Bay. And Bird also said he wanted his team and the other team to play their best and let the better team on the day win.

So, as I write from Naples, aka Marblehead South, let’s root today for a great game between two great quarterbacks and may the best team win. Preferably The Patriots South .

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Open Houses before the Super Bowl (but not before the snow)

Just a few Open Houses again today. (more…)

Lynn house listed at $1.3 million

Until now the highest prices record in MLS for a sale in Lynn was achieved with the 2019 sale of “a beautiful Nantucket colonial that is adjacent to Lynn Woods and Lynnfield conservation land. Although the property is fully fenced, there is a gate to the 2600 acre Lynn Woods reservation for nature lovers.”

The house, which had 4,471 sq.ft. of living space plus a pool house, was listed at $825,000 and sold for $860,000.

But this week a 3,400 sq.ft. house in the Diamond District 32 Baltimore Street was listed at $1,229,900. And three days later the price was increased to $1,299,000.

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Lynn continues to be an up and coming area, with that long waterfront, which is already seeing developments as outlined in this Five projects in the works on the Lynnway article in The Daily Item.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Mariner project gets the go ahead – finally!

The proposal for an assisted living facility to be built on the old Killam Estate has been winding its way through various public hearings and courthouses for more than four years. On Wednesday, Jan. 20 the appeals court ruled that it found no fault with the Superior Court’s decision to allow the special permit issued by the Zoning Board of Appeals to stand.
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Listen to Chris Stevens, editor of the Marblehead Reporter, discuss with Jon Caswell of MHTV the ruling and what happens next:
MHTV discussion on Mariner.

Here is an article in the Marblehead Reporter: Appeals Court upholds special permit for the Mariner.

And here is a link to the The Mariner website.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Open Houses weekend February 6/7

Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. Be aware that with such low inventory, many new listings receive offers before the weekend Open Houses.
This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)