Federal Reserve increase rates; Mortgage Rates drop
Too often I see a headline like this one: “Mortgage Rates Continue to Slide Despite Fed Hike.” The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) does NOT follow the Federal Reserve’s rate increases!
Look at this chart for the last few months:
Note the correlation between the 10T (red line) and FRM (green) – and the lack of correlation between FFR (blue) and FRM.
Let’s look at this another way, the spread (difference) between the FRM and 10T, and between FRM and FFR:
Over the last 6 months, the spread between FRM and 10T has been in a tight band between 2.69% and 3.04%, while that between FRM and FFR has dropped from 3.04% to 1.42%.
For a more detailed explanation of what drives mortgage rates – and why the FRM will fall at some point – read Why Mortgage Rates Will Fall
And these recent articles: (more…)
Sales Up, Prices Down After 131-Month Streak
Existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S. regions – but they also all saw year-over-year declines.
February median existing home prices fell for the first time in 131 months– almost eleven years – according to NAR. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700), as prices climbed in the Midwest and South yet waned in the Northeast and West.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – climbed 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February. Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022).
Total housing inventory at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.
Properties typically remained on the market for 34 days in February, up from 33 days in January and 18 days in February 2022. Still, most homes (57%) sold in February were on the market for less than a month.
Buyer types (more…)
Essex County 2022 Annual Report
2022 Essex County Annual Report
Detailed report on all 34 cities and towns in Essex County for 2022.
And these recent articles:
Economic and mortgage commentary
What drives Mortgage rates in one chart (more…)
March Inventory shows no improvement
Inventory usually starts the year low and remains that way for the first quarter, a pattern that is repeating this year.
Single Family Homes
Condos
Condo inventory has followed a similar pattern:
Mortgage rates (more…)
Essex County 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After sharp increases Year-over-Year (YOY) in Q2 and Q3, the median SFH price in Essex County showed a more modest increase (YOY) in Q4, and also showed the usual seasonal decline from Q3 into Q4. Overall, the median price increased 5% for the year to $640,000, taking the increase in the last 3 years to 35%. Reflecting the low levels of inventory recently, SFH sales declined 11% in H1 and 18% in H2.
The share of sales over $600,000 increased from 52% in 2021 to 58% in 2022, driving the median price for the year well over $600,000.
Condos
The median condo sale price moved more steadily upwards in 2022, increasing by 11% in both H1 and H2, and by 34% since 2019. Sales fell 11% in H1 but by a startling 27% in H2. It seems likely that the increase in mortgage rates had a bigger impact on Condo sales – often bought as a first home with a significant mortgage – than on SFH sales, where mortgages – especially at the higher-end – tend to be less important with many buyers using cash or a large down-payment. (more…)
Salem 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The SFH Median Price increased 9% in 2022. Sales were higher than in 2021, but otherwise were the lowest since 2012.
The share of sales over $600,000 increased from 40% in 2021 to 56% in 2022, driving the median price for the year to over $600,000. There were 11 sales over $1 million in 2022, up from 6 in 2021.
Condos (more…)
Beverly 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The SFH Median Price increased 3% in 2022. while sales dropped to the lowest level since 2011.
The share of sales over $600,000 increased from 54% in 2021 to 60% in 2022, driving the median price for the year further above $600,000. There were 28 sales over $1 million in 2022, down from 41 in 2020.
Condos (more…)
Marblehead 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in 2022 increased 10.4% to $938,000, and reached exactly $1 million in the second half of the year. Sales, reflecting a number of headwinds – amongst them, reduced inventory and a doubling of mortgage rates – dropped below 200 for the first time since 2011.
The share of sales over $1 million increased from 34% in 2021 to 46% in 2022, driving the median price for the year to over $900,000.
Condos (more…)
Swampscott 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The SFH Median Price increased 14% in 2022, while sales dropped to the lowest level since 2010
The share of sales over $800,000 increased from 33% in 2021 to 48% in 2022, driving the median price for the year to almost $800,000. 32 of the 117 sales were over $1 million in 2022, compared with 18 in 2021.
Condos
The median Condo sold price increased 2.5%, while sales dropped to the lowest level since 2016. The share of sales over $400,000 increased slightly from 57% to 61% and, therefore, the median price also increased slightly. (more…)
Essex County Town by Town Guide: 2022 Median Prices and Sales; 2023 Tax Rates
Here is a town-by-town guide to 2022 Median Prices and Sales, together with 2023 property tax rates.
Read February Inventory as low as this weekend’s temperature
And these recent articles:
Economic and mortgage commentary
How Marblehead’s 2023 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2023 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Lies, Damned Lies and Inflation “Statistics”* (more…)
January Sales in Marblehead and Swampscott
A small sample for January, but two observations:
1. the number of properties selling above list price was lower overall, and the amount over list decreased – there were no sales at 110% or more.
2. 4 of the properties had price cuts – and all 4 sold for less than their reduced price.
Read February Inventory as low as this weekend’s temperature
(more…)
Open Houses Sunday January 22
Here are today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
Essex County 2023 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Property tax rates for FY 2022 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County have been certified. The first table shows the tax rates in alphabetical order, while the second lists them from low to high.
Tax rates for each town
Alphabetically (download a copy of this table by clicking here) (more…)
How Marblehead’s 2023 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
The formula for calculating the property tax is: take the $ amount of the previous year’s Tax Levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any New Growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt. – to produce the total Tax Levy.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the Tax Levy by the Assessed Value of property – and, crucially, that calculation is based upon prices as of January 1, 2022, using date from sales in calendar year 2021. What that means is that 2022 sales are used for the calculation of the tax rate in FY2024 – not FY2023.
Here are the numbers for Fiscal Years 2022 and 2023, remembering that FY 2023 runs from July 2022 to June 2023. (more…)
New Listings week ending January 13
Here are the latest New Listings:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
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