January Inventory – how low can you go?

· by · in , ,

After increasing somewhat – albeit from a very low base – in the first several months of 2021, the seasonal drop-off after October after was just as sharp as in prior years – and again this is a reduction from a low level. 2022 is starting off at a seemingly impossible even lower level.

Single Family Homes
The % decline is almost irrelevant. More relevant is the months of supply shown.

Inventory now has less than 1 months’ supply overall and is only over 1 month – but still far below the 6 months deemed to reflect a market in equilibrium – at prices over $1.5 million.

 

Condos
Condo inventory followed a similar pattern in 2021 and starts 2022 at a similar low level.

Mortgage rates
The 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) reached 3.45% this week and is, in my opinion, likely to reach 4% this year. I hope to finish an article on the outlook for mortgage rates this weekend. Every time I get started a new piece of economic or COVID-related news comes out, but it is time for me to set out what I see as the outlook.

Comment
Supply remains the biggest issue for the housing market.
In Marblehead, for example, a town with 6,300 Single Family Homes, there are just 3 – or 0.05% of the stock – currently available for sale.

Thus, the main issue remains supply and demand, which remains heavily skewed in favour of sellers.

And read these recent articles:
How Marblehead’s 2022 Property Tax Rate is calculated
Fall Market Report
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: a Town by Town guide
Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
[email protected]

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
[email protected]
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com