Where have all the sellers gone?

As I read this New York Times article: Where have all the houses gone? my mind went to Yogi Berra’s line of “it’s deja vu all over again” as I checked my files and discovered that this will be my 5th article with this title – and the first was written in 2013.

Let’s look at the what and the why.

First, the what. This chart shows that inventory has plummeted across the country:

Housing Inventory

The why: That is not so easy to summarize but the NYT suggests that half of the decline is pandemic-related and the other half is “more complicated”.

The pandemic impact:
– Supply is down because “Is this a time you want to open your house up to people?”
– Baby boomers have been reluctant to sell and downsize
– Who wants to move into an assisted living facility or nursing home?
– Millions of homes are still in mortgage forbearance schemes – some of these may otherwise have come on to the market
– Rents are falling as single home prices are rising, an unusual pairing
– Homeowners are fleeing cities for the burbs – and for warmth and low taxes

The non-pandemic effect:
– After the crash in home prices in the Great Recession, many single family homes were bought to rent out – in the last decade some 7 million homes have become rental properties
– New home construction dropped sharply after the Great Recession
– Low mortgage rates (even before the pandemic-driven drop below 3%) – have been cheap for some years, encouraging some homeowners to retain their current home as an investment property when they buy a larger one

The questions:
– When the country is vaccinated and people feel free to move around again will baby boomers resume selling?
– And will this add to demand in areas where their children and grand-children live?
– Is the move to a new lifestyle in a warmer and low tax or tax free environment a short-term reaction to the pandemic or a longer term trend? (I believe it is the latter).
– Will new home construction continue to pick up? Probably, but with the cost of raw materials jumping new home prices will continue to rise.
– Will people feel confident about returning to nursing homes and assisted living facilities; or will they elect to “age in place” with more in-home help?
– Will a new type of development take place, something between living in a single family home and a nursing home?

Comment
I used to work with a Realtor who whenever I quoted national or regional statistics would respond “all real estate is local.” I suspect that a lot of Realtors and homeowners and home buyers have felt that the issues they were facing in recent months and years were local. I used to point out to my friend that while real estate was local, it was also important to be aware of national trends that may have an impact on local markets. That is even more true today.
And while home prices have risen sharply in the last 9 months, it is relevant to consider that as we emerge into a post-pandemic world, we expect to see the animal spirits released which, with the help of major economic stimulus from the latest injection of funds and the likelihood of a much needed investment in infrastructure, should see the US poised for several years of rapid economic growth.
While this will likely drive interest rates and hence mortgage rates higher, that will be for the right reasons.
It would be a brave person who would bet against a continuing rise in home prices in the near future.

Goodbye sub 3% mortgages
It’s 80 degrees in Florida….

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Open Houses weekend February 27/28

Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. Be aware that with such low inventory, many new listings receive offers before the weekend Open Houses.
This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.)

Open Houses

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
Lynn Open Houses

Read these recent articles:
Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

Only One House For Sale in Swampscott under $2 million

The shortage of inventory has been a major topic of conversation both locally and nationally for some time now, but the current situation in Swampscott is extreme.

There are just 5 Single Family Homes for sale (MLS shows 6 but one is listed as both SFH and Condo and is actually a Condo legally). Of those 5 , one is listed at $1.75 million, one at $2.8 million, one at $2.9 million, one at $3.5 million and one at $6.5 million.

Such is the supply/demand equation that when houses at lower prices – and some at higher prices – do come on the market a bidding war breaks out.

Thus, if you may be thinking of selling in the spring, you may want to consider taking advantage of the current market drought and list now, especially with mortgage rates having increased quite sharply from the recent extraordinary lows.

Team Harborside is the leading team for sales on the North Shore and we would delighted to offer you an opinion of the current valuation of your property.

Read these recent articles:
Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

 

 

2020: The Top End comes Roaring Back

One of the surprise of the last 2-3 years – to me at least – has been that there has not been more activity in the top end of the market, even as activity increased at lower levels. But that changed in 2020.
Let’s look at sales by price point:

The number of sales over $1 million increased 39% from 353 to 489:

Million dollar sales

The number of sales over $2 million increased to 60 compared with the prior high of 51

Million dollar sales

 

Sales over $3 million doubled from 10 in 2019 to 21 in 2021, passing the prior peak of 18 in 2007:

Million dollar sales

And there was a rebound in sales over $4 million to 12, also passing the prior 2007 peak of 11.

 

Million dollar sales

These charts support what one would normally expect in a rising market – an increase in top-end sales. It took a COVID-inspired exodus from cities to achieve it on this occasion.

Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: a Town by Town guide
Conforming Mortgage Loan Limits raised for 2021

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com
www.MarbleheadSouth.com

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

New Listings mid-week February 24

Another week with few new listings:

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Click on these links for details:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings

These tables show that inventory is reduced from a year ago, when levels were already low:

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And read these recent articles:
Mortgage Rates are Rising
How Marblehead’s 2021 Property Tax Rate is Calculated
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: a Town by Town guide
Conforming Mortgage Loan Limits raised for 2021

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsFL.com (coming soon)

Open Houses Valentine’s weekend

Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. Be aware that with such low inventory, many new listings receive offers before the weekend Open Houses.
This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)

New Listings before Valentine’s Day

Card? Check. Flowers? check. What else: how about a new home?
New Listings

Click on these links for the New Listings: (more…)

New Listings mid-week February 10

Another storm, another ring for Brady, and another week with few new listings: (more…)

Go PATS (South)

While it might be tempting for New England fans to suggest that this Super Bowl should have an asterisk pointing out that the Patriots were not playing, there is the fact that we shall still get to see TB12 and Gronk (albeit in rather ugly brown uniforms).

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NGSC Sports

One of my over-riding beliefs in life is to acknowledge and celebrate excellence. Larry Bird once said (according to my memory, at least) that he could see little pleasure in putting all the best players on one team. To him, taking a good team and making it into a championship team was the height of achievement. Which is what Brady has done in Tampa Bay. And Bird also said he wanted his team and the other team to play their best and let the better team on the day win.

So, as I write from Naples, aka Marblehead South, let’s root today for a great game between two great quarterbacks and may the best team win. Preferably The Patriots South .

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Open Houses before the Super Bowl (but not before the snow)

Just a few Open Houses again today. (more…)

Lynn house listed at $1.3 million

Until now the highest prices record in MLS for a sale in Lynn was achieved with the 2019 sale of “a beautiful Nantucket colonial that is adjacent to Lynn Woods and Lynnfield conservation land. Although the property is fully fenced, there is a gate to the 2600 acre Lynn Woods reservation for nature lovers.”

The house, which had 4,471 sq.ft. of living space plus a pool house, was listed at $825,000 and sold for $860,000.

But this week a 3,400 sq.ft. house in the Diamond District 32 Baltimore Street was listed at $1,229,900. And three days later the price was increased to $1,299,000.

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Lynn continues to be an up and coming area, with that long waterfront, which is already seeing developments as outlined in this Five projects in the works on the Lynnway article in The Daily Item.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Mariner project gets the go ahead – finally!

The proposal for an assisted living facility to be built on the old Killam Estate has been winding its way through various public hearings and courthouses for more than four years. On Wednesday, Jan. 20 the appeals court ruled that it found no fault with the Superior Court’s decision to allow the special permit issued by the Zoning Board of Appeals to stand.
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Listen to Chris Stevens, editor of the Marblehead Reporter, discuss with Jon Caswell of MHTV the ruling and what happens next:
MHTV discussion on Mariner.

Here is an article in the Marblehead Reporter: Appeals Court upholds special permit for the Mariner.

And here is a link to the The Mariner website.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

Open Houses weekend February 6/7

Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. Be aware that with such low inventory, many new listings receive offers before the weekend Open Houses.
This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)