Essex County 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a PDF of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in 2019 increased 3.9% to a new record $475,000. The pace of gain increased in H2. Sales increased 2.7%, just reaching a new high.
Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold in 2019 increased 6.7%, to $320,000. Sales increased 1.8%.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2020 Commercial property tax rates: Town by Town guide
While most of us look at residential tax rates, fewer are concerned with commercial tax rates. Yet a healthy commercial business environment can contribute significantly to the attractiveness of a town. The map below shows commercial rates in each of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns, followed by a table comparing residential and commercial rates.
(Click here to download a copy of this map and here to download the table)
There is a bigger variation in commercial rates than in residential rates
The lowest rate for both residential and commercial rates is Rockport’s $10.10, but while the highest residential rate is Wenham’s $18.94, there are 11 towns with commercial rates over $20, with the highest being $28.42 in Salem. 20 towns set the same rate for both residential and commercial, while in 3 towns the commercial rate is more than double the residential one.
Why do some towns have different residential and commercial tax rates?
Cities and towns have the ability to increase the percentage of the total tax bill paid by commercial (and industrial and personal) property owners. The percentage of the value of property classified as commercial varies enormously from town to town.
In Marblehead, for example, where residential property is 95% of the total, a 50% tax shift to commercial would increase the average commercial tax bill from $7,003 to $10,508, while reducing the average residential tax bill by only $189.
Towns with a higher percentage of commercial property are more likely to shift an increased share of the tax bill to commercial owners.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2020 property tax rates: a Town by Town guide
Property tax rates for FY 2020 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County have been announced. Below is a map (which you can download by clicking here), so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns, followed by the tax rates for each town the last five years. The first table shows the tax rates in alphabetical order, while the second lists them from low to high.
Tax rates for each town
Alphabetically (download a copy of this table by clicking here.
From lowest to highest based on 2020 rates (download a copy of this table by clicking here)
Median and Average Tax Rates
The median tax rate for 2020 is $13.68, down from $14.02 in 2018, while the average tax rate has dropped from $13.95 to $13.80. The highest taxed town, Wenham, has a rate 38% higher than the County median, while the lowest, Rockport, is 26% below the median. Or put another way, the highest tax rate in Essex County is 88% higher than the lowest.
How property tax rates are calculated
There are two main points to understand:
The dollar amount raised by property taxes is based on a simple formula: the dollar levy for the previous year plus 2 1/2% (Prop 2 1/2), plus any new growth (e.g. new construction), plus debt service.
The tax rate is then calculated by dividing the dollar amount to be raised by the Assessed Value of all property. For FY 2020 (July 2019-June 2020) Assessed Values are based upon sales during 2018. Sales in 2019 will be used for calculating the FY 2021 tax rates.
20 of Essex County’s cities and towns choose a single tax rate, whereby residential and commercial properties are taxed at the same rate. The other 14 cities and towns choose a split tax rate whereby commercial properties are taxed at a higher rate – in some cases a much higher rate.
A separate report on commercial tax rates can be read by clicking here.
For a walk through the tax calculation read How is Marblehead’s 2020 Tax Rate calculated?
Tax rate changes in 2020
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 22 have announced decreases in their 2020 residential tax rate while 12 have had increases approved. Decreases of 5% or more were seen in Lawrence, Amesbury, Lynn, Swampscott, Merrimac and Methuen, while 5% or larger increases were recorded in Wenham, Essex and Rowley. Bear in mind that a major determinant of the change in tax rates is the movement in Assessed Values. Thus, in a time of rising home prices, a general expectation is that tax rates should be flat to down.
Tax Rates of Neighboring Towns
Where taxes become interesting is when one can compare tax rates in neighboring towns. Many people, especially those moving to the area, whether from Boston or elsewhere, are willing to consider more than one town.There are many factors in the decision about where to live, but tax rates can be a significant influence on the decision, and may become more so with the new limitation on the deduction of property taxes from Federal taxation. Some argue that lower property values offset higher taxes. Frequently, however, residents of highly taxed towns cite taxes as a reason for wanting to move.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory slumps further
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the number for January 2020 -554 – shows the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated, although it moderated slightly in January.
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in January 2020 YOY while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 1 month ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Also bear in mind that the January inventory is always the lowest for the year so while the position is dire, it may not be quite a dire as these numbers suggest.
Nevertheless, the conclusion remains that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory decline accelerates in December
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at less than 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Buyer Demand is Growing
Foot traffic – the number of home showings – is increasing in all areas of the country, with back to back monthly gains for the first time in almost two years, according to this Buyer Demand Growing in Every Region report in Keeping Me Current. (more…)
Housing Inventory declines yet again
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramaticallys swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Is the seller’s market coming to an end?
A really interesting article from boston.com asks the question we’d all like to know the answer to: Is the sellers’ market coming to an end?
Witness for the prosecution
According to the President of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors, reporting that the median Single Family Home (SFH) price in Greater Boston had increased just 1.7% to $605,000 over the last 12 months, while the median condo price had slipped 4.1% to $549,000: “The seller’s market is likely over, or at least the balance has shifted. With sale prices having begun to stabilize, more homes and condos available for sale, and properties sitting on the market longer, home values have most likely peaked in many areas.”
Witness for the defence
According to a report from The Warren Group, in Massachusetts as a whole in September, the median SFH price rose 5 percent on a year-over-year basis to $399,000, but the real action was in the condo market, where the median price jumped 14.3% to $375,000.
Comment
Lies, damned lies and statistics was the first article I wrote for the Marblehead Reporter in 2008.The point I made then, and have repeated many times since, is that statistics can be distorted to suit the argument one is trying to make – rather like the way Opinion Polls slant questions to get the answer the sponsor wants.
In real estate I don’t believe there is an intent to mislead; I think it is often a writer quoting statistics without explaining them.
Having said that, the number one reason that I NEVER quote monthly statistics is that they can vary greatly and IMO are pretty meaningless.
Let’s look at Massachusetts sales to see if I can make my reason clear.
Our starting point is the comment that the median price in September (one month) increased 5% Year over Year (YOY) for SFHs and 14.3% for condos. We are using different sources for numbers (mine from MLS, Warren from public records, thereby including more sales) but the numbers for the month of September are quite similar. But look below at the monthly figures for July, August and September, followed by those for the entire quarter – Q3.
For SFHs the monthly increases are quite consistent.
But now look at condos. Note that I have high-lighted September 2018 when the median price was out of whack at just $340,085. The September 2019 median price was down from July and August but up sharply compared with September 2018 – which was an outlier.
So we look at the quarter – Q3 – and see that the median prices was up 3.2%, similar to the 2.8% for SFHs.
Confession time. I have statistics going back to 2000 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County plus Essex and Middlesex Counties and Massachusetts. In all the years of keeping records the only time I have calculated a monthly statistic was – for this article.
Especially in New England, there is too much fluctuation even from quarter to quarter, in large part because of seasonality caused by….weather. To give another example, I worked with a seller in Watertown and he had a report from another Realtor showing that the median price had dropped by a large amount – something like 20% – for ONE MONTH and suggesting that prices would show a decline in coming months. By showing longer-term data I was able to persuade the seller that the one month figure was meaningless – and in fact the median price increased by double digits in the second half of the year.
So how is the market?
What was long ago called the $64,000 question, when $64,000 still bought something of value.
By now you will understand that I like to use quarterly data and – better yet – Year to Date as we get to 6 and 9 months.
Here’s another table:
For both SFHs and Condos the YTD increase is =/- 2.5% – and in each case Q3 was a little higher than that figure, not suggesting a slowing of the rate of price increases.
But…..MA is a very big place! And numbers for condo median prices are distorted because Massachusetts includes….Boston. In fact, the median price of condos in Boston has dropped 3.1% YTD meaning that excluding Boston the median price has actually increased by 4.6%.
Yes, I know, your head is spinning with all these numbers. And I will add one more. Note that the median prices quoted at the beginning for Greater Boston were $605,000 for SFHs and $549,000 for condos. Compare that with $399,000 for SFHs and $375,000 for Condos in the Warren Group report. In both cases the Greater Boston numbers are about 50% higher than for the State as a whole. The Boston and surrounding towns effect.
Conclusion
As I said nobody is trying to mislead the consumer (or home buyer or seller), but I repeat what I often say to people when they are shown a statistic:”tell me what that means”.
Even if numbers confuse you (and as a numbers wonk that is hard for me to believe….) there is no reason not to ask for an explanation, as they say in prospectuses nowadays, “in plain English.”
For detailed Q3 reports on Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem and Beverly, as well as a town-by-town summary for the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, click
Team Harborside Market Reports.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Q3 2019 Market Summary
[Click Q3 2019 Essex County Market Summary to download a copy of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3 2019) increased 3.7% to $477,000, with the rate of gain increasing in Q3. Sales YTD increased 3.2%.
Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold YTD Q3 2019 increased 5.4%, to $315,000. Sales were essentially flat.
Comment
While the overall inventory at October 1 represented just 2.1 months of supply ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the number varies widely by price: from just 1 month for SFHs under $750,000, 3 months from $750,000 to $1.5 million; and nearly 14 months at prices over $1.5 million.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory decline accelerates in October
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, while the last two months have shown just a modest decline. The condo market sees more supply in terms of new construction and conversions than does the SFH market.
Comment
I will publish a report this weekend analysing whether the decline in inventory is an accurate comment on the market or whether it reflects a faster pace of sales. The preliminary look at median prices for Marblehead and Swampscott for the 9 months to September show prices in both markets increasing by a little under 2%. The market continues to look stable, despite the daily barrage of headline-grabbing news.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory Jumps after Labor Day
My monthly review of housing inventory as of the first of the month is preempted this month because the period after Labor Day usually sees a jump in listings at the start of the “second selling season.”
First let me show the change in the first week after Labor Day for Essex County:
Conventional wisdom is correct: there is a jump in new listings after Labor Day, but note that the number of SFHs for sale as of September 6 is some 12% down from 2018.
How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The next two charts (the first for January to June, the second July to December) show the SFH inventory as of the 1st of the month since 2016. After increasing Year-on-Year (YOY) for 11 consecutive months, from August 2018 to June 2019, YOY inventory has now dropped for the last three months.
Condos
YoY increases were seen for 13 months, from June 2018 until August 2019. September was basically flat from last year.
Comment
With so many different and confusing economic indicators, the one constant in recent months has been the continuing drop in mortgage rates. As highlighted in Mortgage rates drop to 3.5% the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage rate has dropped from almost 5% last Thanksgiving to 3.5% currently.
Since late last year I have consistently written that I expected 2019 to see a slowing, but still growing, economy and a stable housing market. With an election just over a year ago, logic suggests that a compromise with China over trade will be worked out, which should ensure continued growth.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory declining again
Following year over year (YOY) increases for 11 consecutive months until June, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County fell in August for the second month in a row.
Condos
The condo market is the focus on much of the new construction that takes place,and inventory at the beginning of August increased YOY for the 15th consecutive month.
Comment
It is summer, a quiet time in real estate markets, but this summer has seen a continuation of the sharp drop in mortgage rates, from almost 5% last November to 3.6% this week.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Mid-Year 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of the report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold increased a modest 2.2% to a new high of $465,000, while sales were in line with the numbers in recent years.
Condos
The median condo sales price increased 5.1% to $310,000, as the price reached or exceeded $300,000 for the fifth consecutive quarter. Sales eased slightly.
NB Numbers in bold represent record levels
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory growth slows
After 11 consecutive months of Year on Year (YOY) increases in the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFHs) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, July saw a very slight decline – but still a decline, ending the streak at 11 months.
The first chart shows the numbers for the months of January to June; the second for July through December. While inventory is close to 2017 levels, it is still way below 2016 numbers.
Condos
There was no similar slowdown in the growth of Condos, possible because this is the segment of the market which sees most of the new supply, and the YOY number increased for the 14th consecutive month. That new supply helps to see inventory exceed 2017 levels, but it is still well below that of 2016.
Comment
One of my favourite comments is the importance of understanding the difference between relative and absolute. In this case, while there may be relatively more SFHs and Condos for sale than a year ago, in absolute terms the number is still very low.
If we accept “conventional wisdom” that a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers has 6 months of supply, the market is still heavily slanted in favour of sellers. The supply at July 1st in Essex County for SFHs was a little over 2 months while for condos it was a little below 2 months.
But that is the starting point for a more detailed analysis, as conditions vary greatly by price and by town.
Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of supply at different price points for North Shore towns.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory back to 2017 levels
For the 12th consecutive month the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased compared with the same month of the previous year. For the last two months the 2019 number has returned to the levels of 2017.
Condos
The number of Condos for sale increased, compared with the same month of the prior year, for the 13th consecutive month in June.For the last two months the number has been running ahead of 20-17 levels. (more…)
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