Mortgage rates spike; will housing market collapse?
I have been warning for some time Mortgages rates: how low can they go?, Have mortgage rates bottomed?, Mortgage rates are rising that mortgage rates were likely to rise and this week they did spike, with the 30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) at National Grand Bank in Marblehead increasing from 3.75% to 4%, with the likelihood that the rate will move to 4 1/8% on Monday after movement in the bond market on Friday.
The second part of the headline refers to a number of comments I have heard in the last few days about how the spike in mortgage rates may kill off the still-recovering housing market. It won’t. (more…)
How accurate are online property estimates?
As I have been known to poke gentle fun at Trulia’s “market”analysis for Marblehead (they seem to record only a tiny fraction of sales) it is only fair that I post this excellent Trulia article about the accuracy of online estimates of value.
Source: Zillow
Marblehead: sales jumping, inventory plunging
Since May 15, 23 Single Family Homes (SFH) have received an offer in Marblehead, while there are currently just 67 SFHs for sale, compared with 116 a year ago at this time, a decline of over 40%. But the position for buyers may be even worse than it appears.
One of the numbers I follow is the number of days a property has been on the market (DOM). Last year MLS introduced a new measure, Days to Offer (DTO), which – yes- the number of days a property is on the market before it receives an accepted offer.
A house receives the greatest attention, from both buyers and agents, when it first comes on the market, but as time moves on the listing becomes stale. In an active market such as exists now, a property sees the most activity and interest in the first 30 days.
With that in mind, let’s look at three categories: current inventory, pending sales and sales so far in 2015. In each case I will show a pie chart of the overall picture (at the end of the article are tables showing the breakdown by price band). I’ll summarize and add my conclusions after the charts.
Current Inventory (more…)
Marblehead vs Swampscott
On BostonGlobe.com under Lifestyle, Real Estate, there is a tool to allow the reader to compare two towns. Here is a link to Marblehead vs Swampscott;
The most notable comparisons: (more…)
4 reasons home prices will keep going up
Here are 4 reasons home prices will continue to increase over the longer term: (more…)
Will baby boomers kill the housing market?
Will a flood of baby boomers cashing out their home equity be too much for the housing market to bear? That is the question I was asked recently.
One of the difficulties in trying to make personal decisions, like whether to buy a house today in the town of your choice, based on long-term, national forecasts (for example, boomers cashing in their housing chips) is the risk of missing out on a lot of known positives – i.e., home ownership – in fear of unknown possible negatives.
But let’s look at some of those big questions. See also 4 reasons home prices will keep going up . (more…)
Marblehead buyers spring into action
Y’all were winding me up, right, when I published What’s happening – or not – in the Marblehead market? last week?
Maybe it was all those other factors, but this week saw 10 houses receive accepted offers, after only 4 in the first week of May.
Even more impressive is the range of prices of the houses receiving offers:1 under $500,000; 6 from $500-749,000; 2 from $750-999,999; and 1 at just under $2 million and 1 at just under $5 million.
The Marblehead market is alive and kicking into high gear! (more…)
Million Dollar home sales picking up
Million dollar home sales were flat in the first four months of 2015 compared with 2014, but both years showed a strong increase over 2013.
But the pace of million dollar sales is picking up with 74 pending* sales currently. As usual, Marblehead leads the way: (more…)
Marblehead’s incredible booming market, according to Trulia
I suspect that one day Trulia will get access to accurate information about the Marblehead market and when that happens my fun will come to an end.
Meanwhile….
Source: Trulia
Wow! (more…)
What’s happening – or not – in the Marblehead market?
I am always cautious about reading too much into short-term trends, especially in a market like Marblehead with a small number of sales, but at the same time I do try to report on current market conditions.
And I am puzzled by what has been happening over the last 2-3 weeks – or rather by what has not been happening. And that is houses receiving accepted offers. (more…)
Housing Inventory: better in places but still tight
As we move into the spring selling season we are seeing the traditional pick-up in inventory, although it varies from town to town. Overall in Essex County, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale is 15% lower than a year ago, while the number of condos is down 17%.
Here are the numbers for each city and town. First, SFH: (more…)
Essex County housing inventory: worse than you think
After my article yesterday Marblehead inventory:even worse than you think I have looked at Essex County overall.
There are currently 1352 Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County, down nearly 20% compared from 1660 a year ago at this time. But the position for buyers is even worse than it appears.
Marblehead housing inventory: even worse than you think
There are currently just 49 Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Marblehead, compared with 90 a year ago at this time. But the position for buyers is even worse than it appears. (more…)
Buy or rent? It’s NOT just a financial decision
OK, be warned, I am about to get on my soapbox.
Below I post a link to a recent Boston Herald article quoting a Zillow study comparing the costs of buying vs renting in different cities in the US and in different neighborhoods around Boston and Cambridge.
It’s not that I do no think article like this have some value. They do, encouraging people to think about how long they will stay in a house before making a major financial decision.
No, my problem with articles such as this is that they focus only on the financial aspect of buying a home. (more…)
Trulia vs MLS statistics on Marblehead
I have reported before on my puzzlement as to where Trulia gets its statistics on Marblehead. This is what I received by email today: (more…)
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