Housing Inventory Jumps after Labor Day

My monthly review of housing inventory as of the first of the month is preempted this month because the period after Labor Day usually sees a jump in listings at the start of the “second selling season.”

First let me show the change in the first week after Labor Day for Essex County:

Conventional wisdom is correct: there is a jump in new listings after Labor Day, but note that the number of SFHs for sale as of September 6 is some 12% down from 2018.

How does inventory compare with a year ago?
Single Family Homes (SFH)

The next two charts (the first for January to June, the second July to December) show the SFH inventory as of the 1st of the month since 2016. After increasing Year-on-Year (YOY) for 11 consecutive months, from August 2018 to June 2019, YOY inventory has now dropped for the last three months.

Condos
YoY increases were seen for 13 months, from June 2018 until August 2019. September was basically flat from last year.

Comment
With so many different and confusing economic indicators, the one constant in recent months has been the continuing drop in mortgage rates. As highlighted in Mortgage rates drop to 3.5% the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage rate has dropped from almost 5% last Thanksgiving to 3.5% currently.
Since late last year I have consistently written that I expected 2019 to see a slowing, but still growing, economy and a stable housing market. With an election just over a year ago, logic suggests that a compromise with China over trade will be worked out, which should ensure continued growth.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
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