More signs of buyers at top end in Marblehead
A couple of weeks after I reported a sale over $4 million on Bartlett Street, a house on Ocean Avenue, listed at $4.5 million, has received an accepted offer just 5 days after coming back on the market. This house was on the market last year for 6 months at the same price.
Over the last year I have reported that the higher end was slower in Marblehead and throughout Essex County than it was closer in to Boston, and I speculated that this might be a timing issue. Like the ripple from a pebble thrown into a pond, it takes time for increased demand to move outwards from the epicentre of Boston.
But there is increasing evidence that it is now happening. The table below shows sales (and pending sales) by price range:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Note the sale on Bartlett Street was a private sale and is not included in the above table.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Marblehead to vote on new flood map
At Town Meeting on May 5, Marblehead voters will be asked to approve new flood maps.
Becky Curran, Town Planner, has put together this FAQ about the proposal. Note that this action is to approve the maps. The FAQ clearly explains the separate provisions, which affect flood insurance, in the new Act passed recently to overhaul Biggert-Waters.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Housing market: buyers moving up the price chain
In addition to looking at total sales and median prices I like to look at the breakdown of sales at different price levels. At this stage in the housing market recovery one would expect to see buyers trading up and increasing demand for prices at higher levels.
Although the first quarter in Massachusetts typically sees low sales, the breakdown of them does suggest a trend that I will be watching carefully as we move into the spring and summer.
First, sales in Marblehead. Note the drop in sales under $500,000 and the big jump in sales over $1 million.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Beware first quarter housing market reports
Another one for the “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” file. (And I hope another reason to read my blog regularly to avoid being mislead.)
You may well see a report saying that the median price in Marblehead increased 19% from last year, which is the MLS figure including all sales. My numbers, which always exclude distressed sales, show a 17% increase. But it is important to know that quarterly numbers vary greatly.
Look at these numbers for Marblehead since 2010. They clearly show that Q1 2013 was well below the rest of the year. I am not saying that the Q1 number is not significant (see Buyers moving up the price chain). Just beware that Q1 a year ago was generally a low quarter.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Nahant: the highest median home price in Massachusetts?
Here’s one for the “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” category.
The median SFH price in Nahant in the first quarter of 2014 was….. $2,620,000. Wow!
No I didn’t write this on April Fool’s Day, because it is actually true. But…..there were just 2 sales in Nahant in the quarter (note to my about to graduate daughter: don’t plan a career selling real estate just in Nahant). One was for $340,000 and the other was $4,900,000 (note to daughter: unless you think you can get the $4.9 million sales).
This is an extreme example, of course, but it illustrates why I am very careful about the statistics I publish and try to explain whether or not they are significant. As a general rule, the larger the sample the more reliable the statistic. And if I quote a statistic it is because I believe it to be meaningful.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Housing inventory remains tight heading into Spring
With Spring rumoured to be coming soon (please!) here’s a look at the inventory awaiting buyers.
First Single Family Homes (SFHs). Although supply is a little higher than a year ago in actual numbers, it is slightly lower in terms of months of supply because the rate of sales increased over the last year. For the whole of Essex County supply is just under 3 months, or half the level regarded as a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
The cold winter not only kept buyers indoors but also made it more difficult for sellers to get their houses ready for sale. The economy is improving, albeit still slowly, economic confidence seems to be improving, the stock market is at a high, and the likelihood is that mortgage rates will increase. Coupled with growing awareness that home prices are improving, I believe that 2014 could be a strong year for home prices on the North Shore. (more…)
Two free Marblehead concerts: Sergey Schepkin and Brahms Requiem
For my 200th blog post, I would like to draw your attention to two extraordinary musical offerings coming up shortly. Both will take place at Old North Church, 35 Washington Street , on Saturday, April 5 and Sunday, April 13.
Saturday, April 5 at 8:00 p:m: International pianist Sergey Schepkin will perform works by Bach, Schumann, Debussy and others in a concert to celebrate the restoration of Old North’s Steinway B piano. 
Read Restoration of a Steinway in Marblehead from the Marblehead Reporter.
And on Palm Sunday, April 13 at 7 p.m., the Old North Festival Chorus will perform the rarely heard Brahms Requiem. Written by Brahms after his mother’s death, this Requiem is not the traditional Latin liturgy celebrating the dead, but a full-bodied and full-blooded German celebration of the living. It is a work of epic proportions and this is an incredible musical offering, also free to the public. 
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected]. Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Tom and Gisele selling their LA “fixer – upper”
With real estate investing back in the news and many people looking for a property they can buy cheaply, invest a small amount in finishing touches and flip for a quick profit, I can recommend this LA “fixer-upper”.
Source: American Luxury Magazine
Click here for more photos.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Marblehead sale over $4 million – guess where?
A house in Marblehead sold this week for $4.15 million in a private transaction, according to the Salem Registry of Deeds.
Where was this? The Neck? Fluen Point? Peach’s Point?
The answer: none of the above. It was at the end of Bartlett Street in an area of town, Clifton, that has a number of ocean front properties but is not on the radar screen of many buyers.
The Clifton area runs from the Swampscott town line down to Goldthwait but for the purpose of this article I am going to refer to the coast as far as Ocean Avenue, leading to the Neck. And here is the secret. There are a lot of small streets that lead to the water and have 1 or 2 or maybe 3 or 4 houses sitting directly on the ocean at the end.
And for the most part these houses sit on the rocky Atlantic coast and are high enough that flooding is not a concern, while many of them face South, have great views of Ram Island and down the coastline, and are well protected from the nor’ easters that can impact more exposed areas.
In all I have found 29 properties on this coast with Assessed Values between $2 and $5 million. Two are currently for sale: one on Spray Avenue and one on Crown Way , both under $4 million.
Here’s a map of the area in two sections. First, from Preston Beach to Coolidge Road; secondly, from Coolidge to Ocean Ave.
Source: Town of Marblehead GIS
Source: Town of Marblehead GIS
Disclosure: I am the owner and listing agent for the house on Crown Way. The house on Spray Avenue is listed by J.Barrett & Company
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Why I ignore most articles about “the real estate market”
My mother always told me to focus on quality not quantity. I think of that every day as I read the slew of real estate market “commentaries” that come across my desk and am reminded of the saying that there are no bad statistics, but plenty of bad comments on those statistics.
Here’s a good example.
“Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for February showing weak sales with total home sales falling 0.4% since January dropping 7.1% below the level seen in February 2013. ”
What’s the message here? I’d say it was that sales were “weak”.
The next sentence is: “Single family home sales also weakened dropping 0.2% from January falling a notable 6.9% below the level seen in February 2013.”
I’m not quite sure why a 6.9% drop is “notable” whereas 7.1% in the first sentence was not, but again we have “weak” sales and a “notable” drop.
Not good news for the real estate market you are thinking.
But read on.
“The median selling price increased 9.0% above the level seen a year earlier.”
So let me ask you, madam or mister home owner, which part of this story is more significant to you: “weak” sales, or a 9% increase in price?
I thought so. Me too.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
60 Groups at one Open House
I reported a couple of weeks ago that 160 groups went through a Danvers OH recently. Well, last weekend was mild and 60 groups went through a Swampscott OH in the $400s and an offer was made and accepted that day.
Do you think buyers are surfacing as the weather is improving? So do I.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Senate passes House Flood Insurance Bill: President expected to sign it into law
After the usual round of negotiations the Senate this week passed, on a 72-22 vote, the Bill the House passed last week. The White House said that President Obama would sign it into law.
Here are the details of the Bill from my post last week: Bipartisan Congress votes to roll back impact of 2012 legislation
Reform of the National Flood Insurance program is needed. Here are my suggestions:
1. Do not try to include small, frequent losses caused by flooding throughout the country, and catastrophic major disasters, in one program. The NFIP is well suited for the former, and ill-suited for the latter.
2. Enforce the current requirement that properties in flood zones with federally insured mortgages carry flood insurance. Estimates vary, but the lowest I have seen is that 40% of such properties do not have flood insurance. Why not?
3. Flood insurance should stay with the property rather than the owner so that a sale does not trigger a change in flood insurance premiums (this is in the new Act).
4. Spend the necessary money to ensure that the flood maps used are accurate (they are not in Massachusetts).
After writing several articles on this topic in recent months, I hope that this will be my last for the foreseeable future. It has taken a while but common sense has finally prevailed in Congress. Now there is the opportunity to come up with a lasting solution to the question of flood insurance.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA: heroes or villains?
This week the Senate Finance Committee leaders issued new proposals for winding down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, while the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced that it would not need another bail-out this year.
FHA
With so much going on it is no surprise when we discover that we have missed a news item, but it was only while listening this week to a lecture from Yale Prof. Robert Shiller (of Case-Shiller fame and recent Nobel Prize recipient) that I discovered that the FHA did indeed receive a bail-out in September 2013 as anticipated in my article from late 2012: First Fannie and Freddie: next up FHA?
The FHA’s original role was to provide mortgage credit for low and moderate-income borrowers, but they joyfully joined the frat party that was housing in the early years of this century, including one program which allowed sellers to cover the down payment on behalf of buyers, often by inflating the price of the home.
And with the approval of Congress the FHA backed loans of as much as $729,750 in some areas. I guess it depends on your definition of low to moderate income. By the standards of members of Congress, as the chart below of their median net worth shows, I suppose somebody qualifying for a $700k mortgage would be considered low or moderate income:
Source: Center for Responsive Politics, US News
The Bloomberg article I quoted in 2012 included this wonderful passage: “The U.S. should also consider raising the minimum 3.5 percent down payment to 5 percent or more, because research shows that mortgages with larger down payments are less likely to default.” No kidding!
During the discussion period about the new rules for mortgages Federal banking authorities proposed that borrowers needed to put 20% down when buying a home in order for the mortgage to be considered qualifying. This was watered down in the end, but I cannot help but note that while these discussions were taking place the FHA was offering loans – and still is – with 3.5% down.
Anyway, in 2013 the FHA had to draw down $1.7 billion from the Treasury in order to maintain the mandated level of its reserve funds. One of the main factors quoted by the FHA was losses on low down payment mortgages written in 2007-09. In contrast, this week the FHA announced it would not need another draw down since its capital reserve was now up to $7.8 billion. One of the reasons for FHA’s recovery is the large increase in fees it has imposed.
Senate Banking Committee proposals for mortgage insurance
Also this week the Senate Banking Committee leaders issued a proposal calling for the replacement of Fannie and Freddie with a new system of federally insured mortgage securities in which private insurers would be required to take initial losses before any government guarantee would be triggered. It seems unlikely that any such proposal will pass Congress this year, but at least we are starting to get some proposals that show how the mortgage market may look in the future.
Fannie and Freddie “dividends” now exceed bail out funds received
Separately, the White House Budget Office said that Fannie and Freddie, which have already paid more than $185 billion in “dividend” payments on their $187.5 billion Treasury bail-out, could pay a further $181.5 billion over the next 10 years. And still owe the same $187.5 billion they started with.
This is how the Wall Street Journal described the situation this week:
“By the end of March, the two mortgage-finance companies that were seized by the U.S. in 2008 will have returned $202.9 billion in dividend payments, after receiving $187.5 billion in federal support between 2008 and 2011. The budget projections released Monday by the White House Office of Management and Budget show that the companies could return an additional $163.8 billion through the 2024 fiscal year if the bailout arrangement remains in place.
By that tally, Fannie and Freddie would return $179.2 billion more to taxpayers than they were required to borrow. Last year, the budget showed that taxpayers faced a net gain of $51 billion through 2023.
Even though both companies will have soon sent more in dividends to the Treasury than the amounts they borrow, those dividends don’t reduce the $187.5 billion in stock held by the Treasury. The terms of their government support don’t provide a clear mechanism for them to redeem those shares, and the companies are currently required to send all of their profits to the Treasury as dividend payments.
The Treasury faces lawsuits from nearly 20 investors challenging the dividend terms, which were modified in 2012. They say the government’s collection of the firms’ entire profits amounts to an unconstitutional appropriation of assets and that the Treasury and the firms’ federal regulator engaged in illegal self-dealing when it made those changes.”
Heroes or Villains?
Fannie Mae was established in 1938 as part of FDR’s New Deal to provide local banks with federal money to finance home mortgages in an attempt to raise levels of home ownership and the availability of affordable housing. Fannie Mae – and later Freddie Mac – bought mortgages from banks, thereby making it possible for banks and other loan originators to issue more housing loans.
After the housing crash of 2008-10 Fannie, Freddie and the FHA accounted for some 90% of new mortgages. Over a period of 75 years one or more of these entities has provided liquidity to the mortgage market, enabling among other things banks to issue 30 year fixed rate loans. Like many others all these entities got caught up in the housing boom and like others they suffered losses.
I remain unclear as to why the solution is to dismantle Fannie and Freddie, rather than take on board the lessons learned and put in place controls to make sure that they do not deviate again from their intended aims. I fear that the answer lies more in politics – they are an easy target to blame for the crash – than economics.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Million Dollar home sales also picking up in Essex County
Two weeks ago I wrote about Million Dollar Home Sales picking up in Marblehead.
My thesis has been that the slowness of sales hitherto at the higher end in Essex County was in part at least the usual delay in activity and price increases rippling out from the centre, starting in Boston, moving to the nearer areas such as Brookline and Newton, and then reaching further out.
This week I have been looking at million dollar plus sales throughout Essex County to see if the same trend I spotted in Marblehead is happening more widely. It is.
Here’s the chart and table for 2000 to 2013.
Sources: MLS, Oliver Reports
The number of sales above $3 million has been pretty constant, while in the $1-2 million range there was a sharp drop before a recovery last year. Sales in the $2-3 million range, however, remain well down on the numbers of 2004-06 (but see below.)
Now let’s look at 2014. So far there are 43 sales and pending sales in the $1-2 million, range, 6 in the $2-3 million range, and 1 above $3 million.
And in Marblehead, since my last report, two $1 million plus properties have had offers accepted after being on the market for less than two weeks.
This activity at the higher end despite the brutally cold weather augurs well for sales – and maybe pricing – in 2014.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Flood insurance: Bipartisan Congress votes to roll back impact of 2012 legislation
Both the Senate and House have passed bills on bipartisan votes (Senate 67-32, House 306-91) to reverse the impact of the 2012 Biggert-Waters Act. The Senate now has the option of either accepting the House Bill or seeking to negotiate the differences between the two Bills. Press reports on Friday indicated that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will schedule a vote next week on the House-passed legislation.
While I have heard no reports locally of sales affected by the threat of higher flood insurance premiums,the National Association of Realtors has estimated that some 40,000 sales nationally have been cancelled or delayed because of the confusion over the proposed changes under the 2012 Act. It is not possible to know, however, to what extent such confusion has contributed to buyers deciding not to make an offer on properties in flood zones.Certainly, questions have been asked.
Whereas the Senate Bill basically delays the impact of Biggert -Waters by up to 4 years, the House Bill deals directly with the most important issues.
The main features of the House Bill are:
– the sale of a property will no longer trigger the end of existing premium subsidies
– the restoration of grandfathering, which prevents a property’s rate from being increased if it is mapped into a higher risk zone
– mandating that the rate on any individual property cannot increase by more than 18% per annum.
The House Bill also levies a small fee ($25 for primary residences; $250 for secondary residences and businesses) on policyholders. According to the Congressional Budget Office the fee will make the House Bill revenue neutral, whereas the delays in the Senate Bill would result in the loss of $2 billion in revenues.
Another key feature for us in Massachusetts is that the House Bill requires FEMA to certify that its mapping process is technologically advanced and to notify and justify to communities that the mapping model it plans to use to create the community’s new flood map are appropriate.As I have previously reported, it has been alleged that FEMA has applied Pacific Coast mapping technology to Massachusetts.
The proposed legislation provides a stabilization while a longer-term solution to the finances of the national Flood Insurance Program is sought. The huge and widespread debate in recent months should ensure that the final solution comes after an informed and public process.
Here’s a good summary of the House vs Senate Bills from the Tampa Bay Times.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Recent Comments