2015 Marblehead housing market review
This 2015 Marblehead housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I have published a separate Marblehead 2015 condo market review.
In summary, sales were down modestly from last year – at 239 vs 245 – and the median price was up slightly at a new record $596,500, compared with $590,000 in 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $267,000 to $4.6 million.
And there is seasonality in the market, as you will see from looking at the quarterly median price numbers which ranged from $535,000 to $660,000.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. The $614,500 median price in the second half of 2015 was a new record, beating the $600,000 in 2014, which was the first time Marblehead recorded a median price of $600,000 in any half-year.
The quarterly numbers show how the market can vary. After 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end. In Q3 the median price finally broke the old record for any quarter, the $645,000 recorded in Q3 2006. Ironically, that quarter was followed by a quarter with a median price of $539,950, a difference of 16%, while in 2015 the change from Q3 to Q4 was 17%.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sales
Sales were modestly down from last year, but were still the second highest total since 2004:
The tables show the breakdown in sales by price for the last three years. First overall sales.
The next tables break down sales in more detail. First, sales under $600,000. In 2014 and 2015, 51% of sales were under $600,000, evidence confirming that the median price (that at which 50% are higher and 50% lower) was also just under $600,000. Note that in 2013, 63% were under $600,000, indicating that the median price was well below $600,000 (it was $535,000).
As prices ( and buyers) moved up so the percentage in the next brackets increased. As in the lower bracket, the main change occurred in 2014 (when the median price increased 10%), while there was little change from 2014 to 2015:
That pattern – the big change from 2013 to 2014, with 2015 being pretty stable, was also seen in sales at $1 million and above. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2015 was that the top end did not see more sales. There was, however, increased activity towards the end of the year, and I will write a separate report on that segment of the market;
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%.
As we all hope out properties are worth more than the AV we look for an ASR below 100% as a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The ASR has fallen steadily since 2009. At 87.4% in 2015, the median house in Marblehead sold for 14% (100/87.4 – 1) above its Assessed Value. I was surprised that AVs did not increase more for the FY2016 tax bills that have just gone out, but I am confident that AVs will increase in FY2017 by more than they did in FY2016, but that’s a subject for another report.
Outlook for 2016
I am, of course, an optimist, but there are several reasons to expect a strong market in 2016:
– historically, when mortgage rates start to move up, buyers are active, fearing they may miss the low rates
– the winter is unlikely to be as harsh as the last two, so there may not be the same economic slowdown in the first quarter
– the Massachusetts economy continues to do well
– with the boom in Boston, prices here look even more attractive
– and finally, supply, of which there is very little. Currently, there are just 42 SFHs for sale in Marblehead, and only 6 of them (!) are under the 2015 median price!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties update
A while back I published Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties, referring to houses on or oceanside of Atlantic Avenue between Preston Beach and Beach Street.
In that article I pointed out that: “there are a lot of small streets that lead to the water and have 1 or 2 or maybe 3 or 4 houses sitting directly on the ocean at the end. And for the most part these houses sit on the rocky Atlantic coast and are high enough that flooding is not a concern, while many of them face South, have great views of Ram Island and down the coastline, and are well protected from the nor’easters that can impact more exposed areas.”
This section of Marblehead is seeing price appreciation as evidenced by the number of properties with Assessed Values over $2 million. That number was 29 in 2014, 32 in 2015 and has now jumped to 44 in the recently released assessments for 2016.
How much longer will this area be a secret I wonder?
There are two Open Houses today of oceanfront property in this stretch of town:
11 Crown Way from 12:00-2:00
and 2-4 Coolidge Road from 12:00-1:30
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker will actually sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
The Miracle of Christmas in Marblehead
Read The Miracle of Christmas about the 35th annual Old North Festival Chorus concerts this weekend, offered as part of the Marblehead Christmas Walk . The concerts take place at Old North Church, 35 Washington Street. (more…)
El Nino is good news for housing market
Back in July I wrote No snow this winter, a somewhat optimistic comment about the effect El Nino might have on our weather this winter.
Yesterday I read El Nino seen warming Us economy on Bloomberg, with economists quoted as saying “a milder winter supports growth in housing and consumer spending”.
The last two winters have seen unusually cold (think polar vortex) and snowy weather, and in both years the real estate market in New England got off to a slow start. With the economy growing strongly in Massachusetts (forecasts put 2015 growth at 5%), 2016 could be a very good year in the housing market, with the possibility that the gains seen in Metro Boston in the last few years will extend further outwards. (more…)
3 Oceanfront Open houses in Marblehead’s secret neighborhood
Recently I wrote about Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties in the stretch from Preston Beach to Beach Street.
Today there are 3 Oceanfront Open Houses in this area. They are:
2-4 Coolidge Road, listed at $3.2 million and open from 11:30 – 1:00
11 Crown Way, listed at $3.5 million and open from 12:00 – 2:00
and 40 Ticehurst Lane, listed at $2.26 million and open from 1:00 – 2:30.
If you are in the market for an oceanfront property maybe it’s Time to think outside Marblehead Neck. (more…)
Marblehead’s 2016 property tax rate
The Board of Selectmen has approved a FY2016 rate of $11.10, up 2 cts from FY 2015. The average SFH tax bill will increase 4% to $7,973 based upon an average assessment of $718,342.
Note that the median SFH assessment for FY16, based on 2014 sales, is $545,000, (up 5.6% from 2015, which was based on 2013 sales.) This compares with a median SFH sales price in 2014 of $590,000. Only a small percentage of houses sell each year but this is quite a large difference and suggests that the median assessment will increase quite sharply next year.
This is the calculation for FY16:
Last February in How your property taxes are calculated I forecast a FY 2016 tax rate of $10.65, so why was I so far out?
Based upon the 10% increase in the median price of SFHs sold in 2014 (the year which is the basis for the FY2016 tax rate) I estimated an overall increase of 8% in Assessed Values. In reality, the increase used by the Assessor was 3.7%. The Assessor, of course, uses data for all the SFHs in Marblehead, not just the 3-4% which sell each year.
The next table shows what the tax rate would have been at different levels of increases in assessed values:
Note that the cost of debt exclusions continues to rise. Debt exclusions are included in the announced property tax rate:
The property tax rate will become official when it is approved by the Department of Revenue.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected]. (more…)
What’s available by price in Marblehead today?
Overall market statistics about the supply of properties for sale are all very well, but most buyers want to know what is available in their price range. The first chart shows what’s available by price in Marblehead today compared with a year ago, while the second chart show sales and pending sales for the first 10 months of 2015. The table shows the average Days on Market (DOM) of today’s inventory by price range.
My comments are below the charts.
Marblehead’s proposed Assisted Living facility: on to the next stage
240 people showed up at the ZBA meeting this week. They heard presentations on the proposed development but were unable to ask questions. The next hearing will take place on Monday, November 23. (more…)
Saturday Marblehead Open Houses
Open Houses are usually held on Sundays but this week there are 4 Saturday Marblehead Open Houses.
Note that both the Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty oceanfront properties in Clifton Heights/Greystone are open today from 1:30 -3:00.
Click 11 Crown Way and 2-4 Coolidge Rd for details. (more…)
Marblehead Senior Living Center meetings
Thee has been a lot of talk about The Mariner, the proposed new Senior Living Center planned for 265 Pleasant Street. (more…)
2 “Unknown” Marblehead Oceanfront Open Houses
Last week I wrote about Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties, referring to houses off Atlantic Avenue from Preston Beach to Beach Street.
Well today, two of those houses – the only two on the market, both listed by Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty – are having Open Houses from 12-2.
The two are: 11 Crown Way and 2-4 Coolidge Road.
Marblehead one of safest towns in Massachusetts
SafeWise has just published this list which shows that Marblehead is one of the safest towns in Massachusetts.
Time to think outside Marblehead Neck
You would like to buy a house on the water, but you have noticed the amount of traffic on the Neck and are concerned with exposure to storms.
So what to do?
The answer is: think outside the Neck.
Read Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfromt properties and you may be surprised to learn that between Preston Beach and Beach Street there are 32 homes (and likely a few more when the FY2016 assessments are announced in December as this area is appreciating) with an Assessed Value over $2 million.
Two of these properties are currently for sale and details can be seen by clicking on 11 Crown Way and 2-4 Coolidge Road.
Crown Way has an Open House today 1-3 and both house will be open next Sunday (if not sold before then).
Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties
A man came to the Open House at 11 Crown Way last weekend and commented that he had driven up and down Atlantic Avenue for years and had no idea that there were oceanfront houses at the end of the streets between Preston Beach and Beach Street. This area does indeed contain Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties.
Last year in an article Marblehead sale over $4 million – guess where? I wrote this:
“There are a lot of small streets that lead to the water and have 1 or 2 or maybe 3 or 4 houses sitting directly on the ocean at the end.
And for the most part these houses sit on the rocky Atlantic coast and are high enough that flooding is not a concern, while many of them face South, have great views of Ram Island and down the coastline, and are well protected from the nor’easters that can impact more exposed areas.”
One of the houses mentioned in last year’s article has sold; the other, 11 Crown Way, has just come back onto the market. And this week another, at 2-4 Coolidge Road was listed for sale at $3.2 million.
How many houses with an Assessed Value over $2 million are there in this stretch?
Last year I identified 29 houses with an AV of $2 million or more and this year I have found 32. I also know that AVs for this area are increasing and I would not be surprised to find another 6-7 creep over $2 million when assessments are announced in December.
People who live in this area know its attractions, which may be why houses rarely come on the market. There are two now – both listed by Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty – so take a look if you want a protected oceanfront property in a great neighborhood.
There is an Open House this Sunday at 11 Crown Way from 1:00-3:00.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker will sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Recent Comments