Marblehead sets record for sales over $3 million
After lagging for some time Marblehead set record sales over $3 million, in terms of offers received, in 2015. Indeed, with a further accepted offer this week, we have now seen 6 consecutive months with a sale of a property listed at over $3 million.
I have written several times about the puzzlement that many real estate agents have felt about slow pace of sales at the top end. Last September I wrote Time to buy that Oceanfront property? and included the comment: “Both the stock market and Boston condos have enjoyed a great run in prices in the last few years. One area that has not participated in the recent upturn, however, has been oceanfront property on the North Shore. Maybe Boston condo owners should be asking whether now is time to buy that oceanfront property.”
Since that article was published last September 5 houses in Marblehead on the water have received offers, so I guess at least some Boston condo owners have decided that the answer to my question is YES. (more…)
GE to move to Boston
As has by now been widely reported GE is moving its corporate offices from Fairfield, CT to BOSTON. This is great news for the city, as GE’s move will likely attract other businesses, as explained in the Boston Globe’s GE has selected Boston article.
And, of course, the move will only serve to add demand to the real estate market, both in Boston and nearby towns with ready access to the city. Just to remind GE execs, you can get to the Seaport district – reportedly where GE is looking – from the North via the Ted Williams Tunnel…. (more…)
Marblehead Harbor may get security cameras
The Marblehead Reporter’s article Marblehead harbor is eyed for security cameras describes how, as part of a larger initiative spearhead by the Massachusetts Harbormasters Association that aims to cast a public safety net over the commonwealth’s waterways, cameras may be installed in Marblehead Harbor. (more…)
More sales in Marblehead’s higher end
Many of us were surprised that the higher end did not see more activity throughout 2015, but there was clear evidence of a pick up as the year progressed.
In the last 4 months of the year there were 2 sales over $4 million and 1 over $3 million. 3 sales over $3 million in one year may not sound a lot compared with, say, Boston condo sales at 22 Liberty, but 4 is the most we have had in one year. And a further sale above $4 million closed this week, while there are two more pending sales in the mid to high $3 million range.
Pictured below is 11 Crown Way which has an Open House this Sunday from 12:00 – 2:00.
In my Marblehead 2015 Housing Market Review I commented: “after 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end.”
Since the beginning of December, however, sales have moved to the higher end. Of the 14 offers accepted since then, 1 was listed over $3 million, 2 between $1.5 and $2 million, 3 from $1-1.5 million, and one more at just under $1 million.
Maybe my expectation for activity at the higher end in Marblehead in 2015 was just a case of being a year early. The evidence of recent months suggest that 2016 may be the year when the higher end really does see the increased activity I have been expecting for a while. (more…)
El Nino: warmer than what?
I have written before about how this year’s forecast of warmer than normal weather in the Northeast could be good news for real estate markets, but this week’s brutally cold snap raises the question, El Nino: warmer than what?
I am sure my daughter got bored, as she was growing up, of hearing me say how important it was to understand the difference between relative and absolute. Thus, if the temperature tomorrow morning is say 15 degrees, it will be relatively warmer than today’s 8 degrees, but it will still be absolutely freezing.
Looking for guidance as to what to expect for the next three months I spotted this January-March 2016 outlook from the Weather Company, thanks to wunderground, my favourite source for weather information.
The report mentions the “potential for a significant cold snap in parts of the central and eastern states starting in the middle portion of January”, but goes on “… however, there are several other factors in the atmosphere, operating on shorter time scales, that can, at times, oppose the overall three-month trend.”
OK so now I am starting to struggle with the forecast. It doesn’t get any easier: “An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.”
I know this is blog is meant to be rated G but I could not help noticing the reference to PV – Polar Vortex – in the following: An Icelandic storm .. tugged above-freezing air to the North Pole between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. “The rapid and unexpected destruction of the tropospheric* polar vortex, via the historically strong North Atlantic storm this week, has thrown a significant monkey wrench into the January forecast.”
OK so I think I have this clear. In the Northeast the weather is going to be warmer this winter
unless that Polar Vortex thingy does something or other in which case it will be
colder. And neither warm nor cold spells should be taken as a guide to the weather for the rest of the winter.
I love science: it is so precise.
*I know you know this but just in case it has slipped your mind, “the troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere and site of all weather on Earth. The troposphere is bonded on the top by a layer of air called the tropopause, which separates the troposphere from the stratosphere, and on bottom by the surface of the Earth.”
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review and Marblehead 2015 Condo Market review. Further 2015 reviews will be published shortly.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead Condo market review
The highlights of this 2015 Marblehead Condo market review are that sales recovered back to their 2008 level, while the median price – which must always be treated with caution in a small market such as Marblehead – declined slightly. Note the analysis of sales a little further on in this report. Click here to read my review of the Single Family market.
Sales
In the years from 2000-2006, sales of condos in Marblehead averaged 71 a year; from 2007-2014 that number dropped to 43. The 53 recorded in 2015, while the best since 2008, was still well below the levels from the early 2000s.
Median Price
Because of the small number of sales and seasonal variation (weather!) I do not report on quarterly numbers for condo sales. Marblehead condo market analysis is further complicated by the fact that there are two very different markets: the older, former 2-4 apartment buildings; and the newer, purpose-built (including some harbor front) condos.
Here is a chart of the last 5 years. Note the low numbers for 2012 and the first half of 2015 and then look at the tables below the chart.
The table below shows how in 2012 sales under $300,000 accounted for 62% of the total, while in 2013, 2014 and 2015, sales under $300,000 averaged 42% of the total. That tells us that the median price in 2012 was skewed downwards by the unusually high number of lower priced sales.
2015 was a good example of the bifurcation of the condo market in Marblehead, with a median price of $241,000 in the first half and $340,500 in the second half. So let’s look at the breakdown of sales:
In H1, 10 of 18 sales – 56% – were under $250,000, while in H2 only 8 of 35 sales – just 23% – were in that price range. Here again we see evidence of how the median price can be influenced by the breakdown of sales.
In Marblehead in 2015 sales of condos took place from $120,000 to $1.3 million. What this report confirms is that there is no “condo market” as such in Marblehead, but a number of different types of condos, the number of each of which coming on the market varies from year to year.
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)*
See below for a fuller explanation of ASR, but if sales take place above Assessed Values, then the Ratio will be below 100%. In 2015, the median ASR was 85.8%, which means that the median condo sold for 17% more than its Assessed Value.
Supply
Even Marblehead was not immune to the challenges faced more widely in the condo market during the great recession, when financing became much more difficult for condos, particularly in mixed use and older developments. In July 2009 there were 50 condos for sale in Marblehead, but that number has dropped sharply in the last few years:
Conclusion
The supply of condos for sale in Marblehead has dropped, while there are few new condos being built or converted.That is a formula for higher prices.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead housing market review
This 2015 Marblehead housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I have published a separate Marblehead 2015 condo market review.
In summary, sales were down modestly from last year – at 239 vs 245 – and the median price was up slightly at a new record $596,500, compared with $590,000 in 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $267,000 to $4.6 million.
And there is seasonality in the market, as you will see from looking at the quarterly median price numbers which ranged from $535,000 to $660,000.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. The $614,500 median price in the second half of 2015 was a new record, beating the $600,000 in 2014, which was the first time Marblehead recorded a median price of $600,000 in any half-year.
The quarterly numbers show how the market can vary. After 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end. In Q3 the median price finally broke the old record for any quarter, the $645,000 recorded in Q3 2006. Ironically, that quarter was followed by a quarter with a median price of $539,950, a difference of 16%, while in 2015 the change from Q3 to Q4 was 17%.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sales
Sales were modestly down from last year, but were still the second highest total since 2004:
The tables show the breakdown in sales by price for the last three years. First overall sales.
The next tables break down sales in more detail. First, sales under $600,000. In 2014 and 2015, 51% of sales were under $600,000, evidence confirming that the median price (that at which 50% are higher and 50% lower) was also just under $600,000. Note that in 2013, 63% were under $600,000, indicating that the median price was well below $600,000 (it was $535,000).
As prices ( and buyers) moved up so the percentage in the next brackets increased. As in the lower bracket, the main change occurred in 2014 (when the median price increased 10%), while there was little change from 2014 to 2015:
That pattern – the big change from 2013 to 2014, with 2015 being pretty stable, was also seen in sales at $1 million and above. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2015 was that the top end did not see more sales. There was, however, increased activity towards the end of the year, and I will write a separate report on that segment of the market;
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%.
As we all hope out properties are worth more than the AV we look for an ASR below 100% as a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The ASR has fallen steadily since 2009. At 87.4% in 2015, the median house in Marblehead sold for 14% (100/87.4 – 1) above its Assessed Value. I was surprised that AVs did not increase more for the FY2016 tax bills that have just gone out, but I am confident that AVs will increase in FY2017 by more than they did in FY2016, but that’s a subject for another report.
Outlook for 2016
I am, of course, an optimist, but there are several reasons to expect a strong market in 2016:
– historically, when mortgage rates start to move up, buyers are active, fearing they may miss the low rates
– the winter is unlikely to be as harsh as the last two, so there may not be the same economic slowdown in the first quarter
– the Massachusetts economy continues to do well
– with the boom in Boston, prices here look even more attractive
– and finally, supply, of which there is very little. Currently, there are just 42 SFHs for sale in Marblehead, and only 6 of them (!) are under the 2015 median price!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties update
A while back I published Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties, referring to houses on or oceanside of Atlantic Avenue between Preston Beach and Beach Street.
In that article I pointed out that: “there are a lot of small streets that lead to the water and have 1 or 2 or maybe 3 or 4 houses sitting directly on the ocean at the end. And for the most part these houses sit on the rocky Atlantic coast and are high enough that flooding is not a concern, while many of them face South, have great views of Ram Island and down the coastline, and are well protected from the nor’easters that can impact more exposed areas.”
This section of Marblehead is seeing price appreciation as evidenced by the number of properties with Assessed Values over $2 million. That number was 29 in 2014, 32 in 2015 and has now jumped to 44 in the recently released assessments for 2016.
How much longer will this area be a secret I wonder?
There are two Open Houses today of oceanfront property in this stretch of town:
11 Crown Way from 12:00-2:00
and 2-4 Coolidge Road from 12:00-1:30
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker will actually sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
The Miracle of Christmas in Marblehead
Read The Miracle of Christmas about the 35th annual Old North Festival Chorus concerts this weekend, offered as part of the Marblehead Christmas Walk . The concerts take place at Old North Church, 35 Washington Street. (more…)
El Nino is good news for housing market
Back in July I wrote No snow this winter, a somewhat optimistic comment about the effect El Nino might have on our weather this winter.
Yesterday I read El Nino seen warming Us economy on Bloomberg, with economists quoted as saying “a milder winter supports growth in housing and consumer spending”.
The last two winters have seen unusually cold (think polar vortex) and snowy weather, and in both years the real estate market in New England got off to a slow start. With the economy growing strongly in Massachusetts (forecasts put 2015 growth at 5%), 2016 could be a very good year in the housing market, with the possibility that the gains seen in Metro Boston in the last few years will extend further outwards. (more…)
3 Oceanfront Open houses in Marblehead’s secret neighborhood
Recently I wrote about Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties in the stretch from Preston Beach to Beach Street.
Today there are 3 Oceanfront Open Houses in this area. They are:
2-4 Coolidge Road, listed at $3.2 million and open from 11:30 – 1:00
11 Crown Way, listed at $3.5 million and open from 12:00 – 2:00
and 40 Ticehurst Lane, listed at $2.26 million and open from 1:00 – 2:30.
If you are in the market for an oceanfront property maybe it’s Time to think outside Marblehead Neck. (more…)
Marblehead’s 2016 property tax rate
The Board of Selectmen has approved a FY2016 rate of $11.10, up 2 cts from FY 2015. The average SFH tax bill will increase 4% to $7,973 based upon an average assessment of $718,342.
Note that the median SFH assessment for FY16, based on 2014 sales, is $545,000, (up 5.6% from 2015, which was based on 2013 sales.) This compares with a median SFH sales price in 2014 of $590,000. Only a small percentage of houses sell each year but this is quite a large difference and suggests that the median assessment will increase quite sharply next year.
This is the calculation for FY16:
Last February in How your property taxes are calculated I forecast a FY 2016 tax rate of $10.65, so why was I so far out?
Based upon the 10% increase in the median price of SFHs sold in 2014 (the year which is the basis for the FY2016 tax rate) I estimated an overall increase of 8% in Assessed Values. In reality, the increase used by the Assessor was 3.7%. The Assessor, of course, uses data for all the SFHs in Marblehead, not just the 3-4% which sell each year.
The next table shows what the tax rate would have been at different levels of increases in assessed values:
Note that the cost of debt exclusions continues to rise. Debt exclusions are included in the announced property tax rate:
The property tax rate will become official when it is approved by the Department of Revenue.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com. (more…)
What’s available by price in Marblehead today?
Overall market statistics about the supply of properties for sale are all very well, but most buyers want to know what is available in their price range. The first chart shows what’s available by price in Marblehead today compared with a year ago, while the second chart show sales and pending sales for the first 10 months of 2015. The table shows the average Days on Market (DOM) of today’s inventory by price range.
My comments are below the charts.
Marblehead’s proposed Assisted Living facility: on to the next stage
240 people showed up at the ZBA meeting this week. They heard presentations on the proposed development but were unable to ask questions. The next hearing will take place on Monday, November 23. (more…)
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