Marblehead 2015 Median Price revised
Recently, I spotted in the MLS that one SFH listing in Marblehead was still showing as pending several months after an offer had been accepted. I checked with the Registry of Deeds and found that the sale had actually closed last October, but the broker had failed to update the listing in MLS, a violation of MLS rules. (Note, this was not one of the major real estate firms, but an Entry Only listing).
No big deal, you may think, but the addition of just one sale did two things: it lowered the median price for 2015 by $2,500 to $596,500, and it caused me to redo 6 charts and tables. The first was disappointing, the second downright annoying.
Here is the revised Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review. (more…)
Which broker should list my house for sale?
You’ve decided to sell your house. The big question is: which broker should you hire to sell it? And how do you make that decision? I find that possibly the least understood aspect of home buying and selling is the mechanism by which a house is actually sold.
Who actually produces the buyers for houses?
The table below shows the percentage of a firm’s or office’s listings that are sold by an agent in that office: NOT the percentage sold by the individual listing the property, but the percentage sold by any other agent in the same office or firm.
The numbers are for 2015 for 4 local towns plus the whole of Essex County, for the top 10 offices or firms in each market (the top 6 in Marblehead). Offices, the first table, mean each individual office: so firm A may have several offices in the region but this number is for each individual office. The second table is for all a firm’s offices in the region.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
One of my jobs is to look at statistics and decide if they are significant or not. What strikes me about the numbers in this table is their consistency: both individual offices and firms sell roughly 1 in 4 of the houses they list for sale. Which means that some 3 out of every 4 houses are sold, not only not by the individual listing agent, but not by any of the other 20 or 30 or however many agents in her firm!
Does market share matter?
Not obviously. Each city or town has its combination of chains and local brokers. The bigger the area surveyed – as in Essex County – naturally the larger the market share of the firms with multiple offices will be. But the increase in the percentage of listings sold is very modest. As a numbers man I would have to say that I see no evidence that market share is a determining factor in who actually finds the buyer of a house for sale.
So how should you decide who should sell your house?
I was shocked when I first came across these numbers while preparing a presentation to a potential seller. They made me rethink the reasons for choosing a broker. My belief now is that, while there are several factors that go into the decision. The most important factors are the ability to develop a strategic partnership between the seller and the listing broker, the marketing plan presented by that broker, price and presentation.
What should be in the marketing plan?
Putting the listing in MLS and holding Open Houses is not a marketing plan. It is the old way of doing business.
Today, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), over 90% of buyers use the internet in some way during their search and more than 50% use a mobile website or app. Where appropriate, you should expect your broker to have an online presence (including a website exclusively for your home), and a plan for using social media advertising.
Photographs matter! The days of a broker showing up with his own camera, and snapping photos with the lights off or curtains drawn are long gone. You need professional high-resolution photos. At Harborside Sotheby’s our photos have to go through Sotheby’s quality control department.
Other things to look for include floor plans (which can be interactive with photos embedded), a video, which can be narrated, and a professionally produced glossy brochure.
All these things, of course, cost money, but remember that the listing agent is normally getting a commission of 2 1/2% of the sale price. Shouldn’t he be willing to spend a reasonable amount on marketing your house professionally and thoroughly?
My friend from church/synagogue/yacht club/ yoga is a broker: I feel I ought to give her the listing
Ah, the “ought to’s”. How much of our life is driven by ought to’s?
This is often the hardest issue for a seller to face. According to the NAR a full 70% of sellers contacted only one broker before listing their home. One solution is to say to that friend: “I would like you to make a presentation to me to sell my home. Just to let you know, my financial advisor/accountant/spouse has recommended that I get presentations from 3 brokers so I am doing that.”
You may still select your friend, but you will have an out if you decide to choose somebody else. And trust me, every agent has stories of listings they expected to get but didn’t. That’s the nature of a business where there are so many agents. And if you do list with your friend, you will know that you are doing so for business as well as personal reasons.
Who should be targeted by the marketing plan?
The ultimate buyer of the house, right? Well yes, but at least as important, if not more so, are agents of other firms, because they are the most likely source of the buyer for your house. You should ask the agents you interview about their plans for marketing your house to agents of other firms.
Should I list with the broker who suggests the highest price?
One of my favourite sayings is that the market will decide the correct price for your house. It is human nature to want to believe that your house is worth the highest possible price, so it is very tempting to go with the agent who quotes the highest price. And it is not unknown for that one buyer to come along and pay that price. But the chances are greater that a high price will put off buyers.
If other agents think the price is too high – and the ones who competed for the listing and suggested a lower price will – then they are less likely to call their buyers to go and look at the house.
You are the customer
Most of us when we are considering a significant purchase do some reasonably thorough research of the product and alternatives. We might look at several different cars or TVs, read online reviews(from a trusted source such as Consumer Reports), ask friends – and then make an informed decision. Yet 70% of us do not apparently follow the same approach when it comes to selling what is for most of us our biggest asset.
The number one goal of Oliver Reports is to make you an informed buyer or seller of real estate. I hope this article helps you to make an informed decision when you decide to sell your house.
And if you would like me to be one of the 3 brokers you ask to discuss the sale of your home I should be delighted to meet with you.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Only 2 Oceanfront Homes for sale in Marblehead
Recently I published Marblehead sets record for sales over $3 million highlighting the spurt in sales of Oceanfront properties recently.
The pace of sales (and the withdrawal of some properties from the market) means that there are now only 2 Oceanfront homes for sale in Marblehead, one on Ocean Avenue and 11 Crown Way, and both have Open Houses this Sunday.
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If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I use to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Bizarre Open House activity
Last Sunday the temperature was in the single digits after the coldest night in 60 years. It was also the start of school vacation week in New England. And it was President’s Day weekend. And Valentine’s Day.
Being smart people, most real estate agents concluded that there was no point in holding an Open House.
But a bizarre thing happened. At one of the few Open Houses in Marblehead, 16 couples came through. At another there were 12. And both these houses were hosted by Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty (HSIR) agents.
There are two clear messages: buyers are out there, and HSIR agents really work hard for their clients – as well as having the best marketing plans. (more…)
Marblehead sets record for sales over $3 million
After lagging for some time Marblehead set record sales over $3 million, in terms of offers received, in 2015. Indeed, with a further accepted offer this week, we have now seen 6 consecutive months with a sale of a property listed at over $3 million.
I have written several times about the puzzlement that many real estate agents have felt about slow pace of sales at the top end. Last September I wrote Time to buy that Oceanfront property? and included the comment: “Both the stock market and Boston condos have enjoyed a great run in prices in the last few years. One area that has not participated in the recent upturn, however, has been oceanfront property on the North Shore. Maybe Boston condo owners should be asking whether now is time to buy that oceanfront property.”
Since that article was published last September 5 houses in Marblehead on the water have received offers, so I guess at least some Boston condo owners have decided that the answer to my question is YES. (more…)
GE to move to Boston
As has by now been widely reported GE is moving its corporate offices from Fairfield, CT to BOSTON. This is great news for the city, as GE’s move will likely attract other businesses, as explained in the Boston Globe’s GE has selected Boston article.
And, of course, the move will only serve to add demand to the real estate market, both in Boston and nearby towns with ready access to the city. Just to remind GE execs, you can get to the Seaport district – reportedly where GE is looking – from the North via the Ted Williams Tunnel…. (more…)
Marblehead Harbor may get security cameras
The Marblehead Reporter’s article Marblehead harbor is eyed for security cameras describes how, as part of a larger initiative spearhead by the Massachusetts Harbormasters Association that aims to cast a public safety net over the commonwealth’s waterways, cameras may be installed in Marblehead Harbor. (more…)
More sales in Marblehead’s higher end
Many of us were surprised that the higher end did not see more activity throughout 2015, but there was clear evidence of a pick up as the year progressed.
In the last 4 months of the year there were 2 sales over $4 million and 1 over $3 million. 3 sales over $3 million in one year may not sound a lot compared with, say, Boston condo sales at 22 Liberty, but 4 is the most we have had in one year. And a further sale above $4 million closed this week, while there are two more pending sales in the mid to high $3 million range.
Pictured below is 11 Crown Way which has an Open House this Sunday from 12:00 – 2:00.
In my Marblehead 2015 Housing Market Review I commented: “after 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end.”
Since the beginning of December, however, sales have moved to the higher end. Of the 14 offers accepted since then, 1 was listed over $3 million, 2 between $1.5 and $2 million, 3 from $1-1.5 million, and one more at just under $1 million.
Maybe my expectation for activity at the higher end in Marblehead in 2015 was just a case of being a year early. The evidence of recent months suggest that 2016 may be the year when the higher end really does see the increased activity I have been expecting for a while. (more…)
El Nino: warmer than what?
I have written before about how this year’s forecast of warmer than normal weather in the Northeast could be good news for real estate markets, but this week’s brutally cold snap raises the question, El Nino: warmer than what?
I am sure my daughter got bored, as she was growing up, of hearing me say how important it was to understand the difference between relative and absolute. Thus, if the temperature tomorrow morning is say 15 degrees, it will be relatively warmer than today’s 8 degrees, but it will still be absolutely freezing.
Looking for guidance as to what to expect for the next three months I spotted this January-March 2016 outlook from the Weather Company, thanks to wunderground, my favourite source for weather information.
The report mentions the “potential for a significant cold snap in parts of the central and eastern states starting in the middle portion of January”, but goes on “… however, there are several other factors in the atmosphere, operating on shorter time scales, that can, at times, oppose the overall three-month trend.”
OK so now I am starting to struggle with the forecast. It doesn’t get any easier: “An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.”
I know this is blog is meant to be rated G but I could not help noticing the reference to PV – Polar Vortex – in the following: An Icelandic storm .. tugged above-freezing air to the North Pole between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. “The rapid and unexpected destruction of the tropospheric* polar vortex, via the historically strong North Atlantic storm this week, has thrown a significant monkey wrench into the January forecast.”
OK so I think I have this clear. In the Northeast the weather is going to be warmer this winter
unless that Polar Vortex thingy does something or other in which case it will be
colder. And neither warm nor cold spells should be taken as a guide to the weather for the rest of the winter.
I love science: it is so precise.
*I know you know this but just in case it has slipped your mind, “the troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere and site of all weather on Earth. The troposphere is bonded on the top by a layer of air called the tropopause, which separates the troposphere from the stratosphere, and on bottom by the surface of the Earth.”
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review and Marblehead 2015 Condo Market review. Further 2015 reviews will be published shortly.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead Condo market review
The highlights of this 2015 Marblehead Condo market review are that sales recovered back to their 2008 level, while the median price – which must always be treated with caution in a small market such as Marblehead – declined slightly. Note the analysis of sales a little further on in this report. Click here to read my review of the Single Family market.
Sales
In the years from 2000-2006, sales of condos in Marblehead averaged 71 a year; from 2007-2014 that number dropped to 43. The 53 recorded in 2015, while the best since 2008, was still well below the levels from the early 2000s.
Median Price
Because of the small number of sales and seasonal variation (weather!) I do not report on quarterly numbers for condo sales. Marblehead condo market analysis is further complicated by the fact that there are two very different markets: the older, former 2-4 apartment buildings; and the newer, purpose-built (including some harbor front) condos.
Here is a chart of the last 5 years. Note the low numbers for 2012 and the first half of 2015 and then look at the tables below the chart.
The table below shows how in 2012 sales under $300,000 accounted for 62% of the total, while in 2013, 2014 and 2015, sales under $300,000 averaged 42% of the total. That tells us that the median price in 2012 was skewed downwards by the unusually high number of lower priced sales.
2015 was a good example of the bifurcation of the condo market in Marblehead, with a median price of $241,000 in the first half and $340,500 in the second half. So let’s look at the breakdown of sales:
In H1, 10 of 18 sales – 56% – were under $250,000, while in H2 only 8 of 35 sales – just 23% – were in that price range. Here again we see evidence of how the median price can be influenced by the breakdown of sales.
In Marblehead in 2015 sales of condos took place from $120,000 to $1.3 million. What this report confirms is that there is no “condo market” as such in Marblehead, but a number of different types of condos, the number of each of which coming on the market varies from year to year.
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)*
See below for a fuller explanation of ASR, but if sales take place above Assessed Values, then the Ratio will be below 100%. In 2015, the median ASR was 85.8%, which means that the median condo sold for 17% more than its Assessed Value.
Supply
Even Marblehead was not immune to the challenges faced more widely in the condo market during the great recession, when financing became much more difficult for condos, particularly in mixed use and older developments. In July 2009 there were 50 condos for sale in Marblehead, but that number has dropped sharply in the last few years:
Conclusion
The supply of condos for sale in Marblehead has dropped, while there are few new condos being built or converted.That is a formula for higher prices.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead housing market review
This 2015 Marblehead housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I have published a separate Marblehead 2015 condo market review.
In summary, sales were down modestly from last year – at 239 vs 245 – and the median price was up slightly at a new record $596,500, compared with $590,000 in 2014.
It is important to bear in mind that only around 4% of Marblehead’s SFHs change hands publicly in any year, but 4% is a reasonable sample, with sales taking place from $267,000 to $4.6 million.
And there is seasonality in the market, as you will see from looking at the quarterly median price numbers which ranged from $535,000 to $660,000.
Median price
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. The $614,500 median price in the second half of 2015 was a new record, beating the $600,000 in 2014, which was the first time Marblehead recorded a median price of $600,000 in any half-year.
The quarterly numbers show how the market can vary. After 9 months it looked as though we were going to see a median price for the year well over $600,000, but sales in the last quarter were skewed to the lower end. In Q3 the median price finally broke the old record for any quarter, the $645,000 recorded in Q3 2006. Ironically, that quarter was followed by a quarter with a median price of $539,950, a difference of 16%, while in 2015 the change from Q3 to Q4 was 17%.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sales
Sales were modestly down from last year, but were still the second highest total since 2004:
The tables show the breakdown in sales by price for the last three years. First overall sales.
The next tables break down sales in more detail. First, sales under $600,000. In 2014 and 2015, 51% of sales were under $600,000, evidence confirming that the median price (that at which 50% are higher and 50% lower) was also just under $600,000. Note that in 2013, 63% were under $600,000, indicating that the median price was well below $600,000 (it was $535,000).
As prices ( and buyers) moved up so the percentage in the next brackets increased. As in the lower bracket, the main change occurred in 2014 (when the median price increased 10%), while there was little change from 2014 to 2015:
That pattern – the big change from 2013 to 2014, with 2015 being pretty stable, was also seen in sales at $1 million and above. Perhaps the biggest surprise of 2015 was that the top end did not see more sales. There was, however, increased activity towards the end of the year, and I will write a separate report on that segment of the market;
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%.
As we all hope out properties are worth more than the AV we look for an ASR below 100% as a positive sign. Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Let’s look at the ASR in recent years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The ASR has fallen steadily since 2009. At 87.4% in 2015, the median house in Marblehead sold for 14% (100/87.4 – 1) above its Assessed Value. I was surprised that AVs did not increase more for the FY2016 tax bills that have just gone out, but I am confident that AVs will increase in FY2017 by more than they did in FY2016, but that’s a subject for another report.
Outlook for 2016
I am, of course, an optimist, but there are several reasons to expect a strong market in 2016:
– historically, when mortgage rates start to move up, buyers are active, fearing they may miss the low rates
– the winter is unlikely to be as harsh as the last two, so there may not be the same economic slowdown in the first quarter
– the Massachusetts economy continues to do well
– with the boom in Boston, prices here look even more attractive
– and finally, supply, of which there is very little. Currently, there are just 42 SFHs for sale in Marblehead, and only 6 of them (!) are under the 2015 median price!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties update
A while back I published Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront Properties, referring to houses on or oceanside of Atlantic Avenue between Preston Beach and Beach Street.
In that article I pointed out that: “there are a lot of small streets that lead to the water and have 1 or 2 or maybe 3 or 4 houses sitting directly on the ocean at the end. And for the most part these houses sit on the rocky Atlantic coast and are high enough that flooding is not a concern, while many of them face South, have great views of Ram Island and down the coastline, and are well protected from the nor’easters that can impact more exposed areas.”
This section of Marblehead is seeing price appreciation as evidenced by the number of properties with Assessed Values over $2 million. That number was 29 in 2014, 32 in 2015 and has now jumped to 44 in the recently released assessments for 2016.
How much longer will this area be a secret I wonder?
There are two Open Houses today of oceanfront property in this stretch of town:
11 Crown Way from 12:00-2:00
and 2-4 Coolidge Road from 12:00-1:30
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker will actually sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
The Miracle of Christmas in Marblehead
Read The Miracle of Christmas about the 35th annual Old North Festival Chorus concerts this weekend, offered as part of the Marblehead Christmas Walk . The concerts take place at Old North Church, 35 Washington Street. (more…)
El Nino is good news for housing market
Back in July I wrote No snow this winter, a somewhat optimistic comment about the effect El Nino might have on our weather this winter.
Yesterday I read El Nino seen warming Us economy on Bloomberg, with economists quoted as saying “a milder winter supports growth in housing and consumer spending”.
The last two winters have seen unusually cold (think polar vortex) and snowy weather, and in both years the real estate market in New England got off to a slow start. With the economy growing strongly in Massachusetts (forecasts put 2015 growth at 5%), 2016 could be a very good year in the housing market, with the possibility that the gains seen in Metro Boston in the last few years will extend further outwards. (more…)
3 Oceanfront Open houses in Marblehead’s secret neighborhood
Recently I wrote about Marblehead’s Unknown Oceanfront properties in the stretch from Preston Beach to Beach Street.
Today there are 3 Oceanfront Open Houses in this area. They are:
2-4 Coolidge Road, listed at $3.2 million and open from 11:30 – 1:00
11 Crown Way, listed at $3.5 million and open from 12:00 – 2:00
and 40 Ticehurst Lane, listed at $2.26 million and open from 1:00 – 2:30.
If you are in the market for an oceanfront property maybe it’s Time to think outside Marblehead Neck. (more…)
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