How will a wind turbine affect my home’s value?
A recent study Relationship between Wind Turbines and Residential Property Values in Massachusetts by the University of Connecticut and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory analyzed more than 122,000 home sales between 1998 and 2012 occurring near the current or future location of 41 turbines in densely-populated Massachusetts communities.
While “weak evidence suggests that the announcement of the wind facilities had a modest adverse impact on home prices….. those effects were no longer apparent after turbine construction and eventual operation commenced. The analysis also showed no unique impact on the rate of home sales near wind turbines.” The study “found no net effects due to the arrival of turbines in the sample’s communities.” (more…)
Marblehead Oceanfront Open House Sunday 12-2
THERE WILL BE ONLY ONE BUYER. Will it be you?
Dutch auction: the price is reduced $25,000 every Friday on this 11CrownWay 1850 Marblehead Oceanfront family compound.The first person to hit the bid buys the house! (more…)
Can reverse auction move Marblehead mansion?
Boston.com posted this article today.
Here’s a link to the property’s website 11 Crown Way
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE BUYER
Dutch auction: the price is reduced $25,000 every Friday on this Marblehead Oceanfront family compound. The first person to hit the bid buys the house! (more…)
New mortgage rules raise costs for borrowers
Carl Edwards, V-P Lending for National Grand Bank in Marblehead, made a presentation at the offices of Harborside Realty this week. His main message was that the new rules, designed to “protect” the consumer, would have the effect of increasing the cost of mortgages.
The new rules, which are part of Dodd- Frank: generally require creditors to make a reasonable, good faith determination of a consumer’s ability to repay any consumer credit transaction secured by a dwelling …… and establishes certain protections from liability under this requirement for “qualified mortgages.”
The concept of requiring a lender to determine if a borrower can repay a loan may seem like basic common sense, but with regulation comes additional costs. For example, a borrower with a credit score of 700 making a deposit of 30% on a loan sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will now pay 1.50% in upfront fees. (more…)
Marblehead Housing Review 2013 and Outlook
I concluded my 2012 review with these words: “clearly 2012 was the year when the market nationally turned up. More importantly, perhaps, it also marked the turn in sentiment, with the view becoming widespread that the market has bottomed and is improving, in some cases sharply.”
There is no doubt that 2013 was a year when the headlines about the housing market were dominated by stories of rising prices and bidding wars, with many, many properties throughout the country – and in Marblehead at the lower levels – selling above list prices.
The median price for a Single Family Home (SFH) in 2013 was $535,000,up from $510,000 in 2012 and from $524,950 in 2011. Sales, at 227 were unchanged from 2012, largely because the shortage of available properties for sale, a factor all year, really took hold in Q4.
Let’s look at the numbers. (more…)
Marblehead Condo Market 2013 Review and Outlook
After several years of high inventory the condo market in Marblehead turned around sharply in the second half of 2013.
At mid-year there were 24 condos available for sale after just 12 sold in the first half of the year.
In the second half of the year, however, there were 34 sales, the highest number in any six month period since 2005, and as of today there are just 9 condos for sale in Marblehead, and 3 of those are priced at $625,000 or higher.
The law of supply and demand suggests that 2014 will be a good year for condo prices in Marblehead.
Reasons for the turnaround include:
1. Condos are often bought by first time, younger buyers, who may be feeling more confident about their job prospects.
2. At the higher end, condos are bought by people down-sizing or wanting a summer property.
3. As mortgage rates moved up during 2013, Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs), which are often used by condo buyers, became more attractive as the benchmark interest rate used to price ARMs did not move up as much as that used in pricing 30 year mortgages.
4. The days of converting 2/3 unit apartment buildings and calling them condos are gone. Today’s condo buyer wants a purpose-built or professionally converted condo, and there is a limited supply of these in Marblehead. (more…)
Year end reviews
I shall be publishing year-end reviews over the course of this weekend. The best way to know when they are published is to sign up on www.OliverReports.com to receive email alerts of new articles. Here’s a screenshot showing where you can sign up on the home page.
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Foreclosures and Short Sales plummet in 2013
Foreclosures (FC) and Short Sales (SS) in Essex County accounted for 8% of Single Family Home (SFH) sales in 2013, down from 14% in 2012. In condos FCSS were 10% of the market, down from 21% in 2012.
While Lynn still had the highest percentage of FCSS sales in 2013, the numbers there dropped from 30% to 12% for SFHs and from 49% to 25% for condos.
Here are the numbers by city and town for the North Shore, and for Essex County and Massachusetts overall. First SFHs:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
and for condos:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Sharp jump in home sales in 2013
As the housing market improved in 2013 we heard less about the impact of foreclosures (FC) and short sales (SS) on the market. Because of the well documented pricing difference between FCSS, collectively known as distressed sales, I have excluded FCSS from my analyses of median prices since I first started reporting housing statistics in 2008. I do, however, include FCSS sales in total sales figures.
Overall sales, including FCSS, in Essex County increased 11% for Single Family Homes (SFHs) in 2013 and by 12% for condos. But excluding FCSS sales, non-distressed sales jumped 18% for SFHs and 27% for condos.
Here are the numbers:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
FCSS are often bought by professional investors. Traditional buyers, who want to occupy the home, normally buy non-distressed properties. Thus, despite the inventory shortages, buying by owner occupiers showed a very sharp increase in 2013.
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead
Seasonal slump in housing inventory
Much like the temperature, housing inventory is extremely low at the start of the New Year in Essex County. Overall, the number of available Single Family Homes (SFHs) is down 3% from a year ago, but down a whopping 34% since the beginning of October.
Needless to say, as in everything else in New England, the weather is a major factor in the seasonal slump. How many people went house-hunting after the storm? But with inventory so low, a period of mild weather in the next couple of months could trigger a buying rush much as we saw last winter.
If you are thinking of selling in the spring, it may be a good idea to start getting ready now.
Here are the inventory numbers for each quarter over the last year, earliest to latest. The last two columns show the percentage change year over year (YOY) and since October (Q4). Note that Marblehead’s inventory is down 29% YOY and 41% Q4:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
While condo inventory for Essex County is down 7% YOY (and 28% Q4), on the North Shore it has dropped 20% YOY and 30% Q4. Ipswich and Marblehead have both seen drops of 50% or more YOY. Going the other way is Swampscott, which saw a number of new developments come to market in 2013.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
These numbers confirm last week’s post about the tightness of the condo market in Marblehead, where sales in the second half of 2013 were the highest in any six months since 2005.
In a general article such as this I do not have room to post a more detailed break-down by price or location, so if you have any questions please contact me.
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead.
A Year End Perspective
One of the recurring themes of 2013 has been the shortage of supply of homes for sale, accompanied by wondering when sellers would re-enter the market in larger numbers. The latter question often comes with a reference to the fact that prices have risen, say 10%, in the last year.
Well here’s another thought, one which may not be encouraging for those waiting for supply to pick up before they buy. For most of us, our home is our largest asset. When we believe that its value is increasing we feel good about spending generally and borrowing money to do so.Conversely, during the period when prices were falling, we felt poorer and were less willing to spend.
While home prices are now recovering, they are still below levels of 2006/7, whereas the stock market is at an all- time high.
Many people are feeling a little more secure in their jobs and in their personal finances, but believe their homes are still not worth what they once were – and they are not selling unless they need to move or are trading up or down.
In Marblehead, the median price for 2013 is likely to be the highest since 2007, but still 8-9% below the peak level of 2005/06. 8-9% may sound like a small number but it translates into $50,000 – and that’s real money. And when you read forecasts that prices may rise by “only 5%” in 2014, that’s still $25,000 or more.
The law of supply and demand applies to the housing market. As we approach 2014 it seems that demand is likely to remain strong, while there is no sign that supply is about to increase.Currently there are just 55 homes for sale in Marblehead with only half of those under $1 million.
And that means that prices are likely to rise again.
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead.
A great time to sell a Marblehead condo
Over the last several years the condo market in Marblehead, limited as it is, has tended to see over supply. At many times there have been 30-60 condos for sale. But not now. There are just 10 available, low even for this time of year.
Here’s a table for 2013 data:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
It is possible 1 or 2 of the pending sales will close by year end. What is significant is that after a very quiet first half (12 sales) activity really picked up with 32 sales already in the second half of the year.
Here’s another thing. Condo buyers often take out an Adjustable Rate Mortgage, most commonly a 5/1 where the rate is fixed for the first 5 years, often encompassing the time a young person or couple will live in the condo. And despite higher mortgage rates generally since the summer, the rate on a 5/1 is still about 1% cheaper than the 30 year.
Here are reasons to think about selling now:
1. Supply and demand – very little supply, good demand
2. With the Federal Reserve finally starting to cut back on its bond purchases, and with new rules increasing the fees on mortgages in 2014, rates are almost certainly going up in 2014. ( I know that’s been said for a couple of years, but it happened in 2013 and forecasts are for a further increase in 2014).
If you are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 781.631.1223 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Realty in Marblehead.
Flood insurance (4): vote to delay Act set for early January
According to multiple media reports, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is planning to fast track legislation for a January vote that would require 60 votes and there are reported to be enough support to pass it. The proposed legislation would delay the implementation of the new flood rates for up to 4 years. (more…)
Flood Insurance (3): are the new maps accurate?
As Congress continues to bicker over reforming the Biggert-Waters Act (this week one Republican Senator blocked the unanimous consent required to move forward one Bill delaying the implementation of the new rates) a concern has been raised about the accuracy of the new maps for Massachusetts.
Independent coastal experts say the federal government used outdated wave methodology better fit for the Pacific coast when they drafted the new flood maps. As a result, they say, the government over-predicted flooding that would occur during a 100-year storm for much of the state.
According to this Patriot Ledger article Experts say FEMA cut corners on flood map methodology, the engineering experts claim that FEMA “used a mapping method fit for the Pacific coast, where the wave periods are much longer and the beaches are straighter, instead of developing a correct approach for New England.” (more…)
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