Why home prices will go up in 2015
I have been asked more than once recently when the supply of homes for sale will increase and return to more normal levels.
My answer is that the improving economy, increased job security and higher incomes, unexpectedly low mortgage rates, and the realisation that real estate has not appreciated as much as other asset classes all combine to create a market with more buyers than sellers.
And we know what happens when demand exceeds supply – prices go up. And higher prices are what I think it will take to get more inventory onto the market.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Farewell February: we shall not miss you
“Stay not upon the order of thy going but go” are, according to my memory, the words spoken by Lady Macbeth. But when I checked, I found the actual quotation is:”Stand not upon the order of your going, but go at once.” I don’t wish to criticise Shakespeare but I actually prefer my version.
And either is better than the “modern” text version:”Don’t bother exiting in the order of your rank, but just leave right away.”
How can anybody take the majesty of Shakespeare’s prose and turn it into such prosaic English is beyond me.
It reminds me of the story I heard of a young Rabbi explaining to a man in his new congregation that the rewriting of Psalm 23, in which “my cup runneth over” became “my cup overflows”, was to make the meaning clearer. Unconvinced, the man replied:”Rabbi, my cup runneth over, it’s my toilet which overflows.”
And what, if anything, does this have to do with real estate you may be asking?
Well, I suspect a lot of people are fearing that the snow will be on the ground well into – I won’t say spring, but let’s say April. People will stay indoors, home owners won’t be able to get their houses ready for sale, and the housing market will freeze (ho ho!) up.
How long the snow will remain on the ground is, therefore, a factor in the housing market. Earlier in the week I posted The snow may disappear earlier than you think quoting Dave Epstein (@growingwisdom). Epstein has now posted another excellent article Spring really is coming. Well, that’s not the actual title of the article, but again I like my version better than the author’s.
The article explain how the hours and intensity of sun shine will increase dramatically over the next three weeks. As Epstein says:”This increase in solar radiation will start to rapidly melt the snow and transform our barren landscape.” The transformation may also extend to the real estate market. Whether you are a buyer or seller, it is time to get ready to act.
I had an email recently from a frustrated buyer who has been looking for over a year for a house to buy. He asked what it will take to increase the very low inventory of houses for sale. Here is my answer: Why home prices will go up in 2015.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
The snow may disappear sooner than you think
On this morning of extreme cold, when we may fear that this winter will never end, there is good news from Boston.com’s excellent meteorologist David Epstein (@growingwisdom) in this When will we see bare ground? article. (more…)
The best and worst performing real estate markets
I have read a number of articles recently about the best and worst real estate markets but none of them mentioned Essex County. This article corrects that oversight.
The first table follows the pattern of many articles in looking at the extent of the recovery since 2009: (more…)
How do I know if I have an ice dam?
In recent weeks we have all learned to toss the phrase “ice dam” into our conversation with friends and neighbors, but what exactly is an ice dam, how do we tell if we have one, and what should be do about them?
Here’s an Ice dam guide from today’s Boston Globe.
The most popular tip may be number 7. (more…)
Marblehead housing market: “there’s nothing to buy”
If only the snow would shrink as quickly as Marblehead’s housing inventory.
Buyers are surprising active given the weather:
While sellers appear to have hibernated: there are just 19 houses for sale currently under $1 million. (more…)
Home automation: yes, but can it shovel snow?
Control lights, appliances, garage doors, and thermostats from your mobile device, even when you’re not at home. Get a text message when the front door opens. Monitor security cameras to make sure your kids are home safe.
But can it shovel snow? Not yet. Perhaps Google should focus on developing a product to shovel snow rather than a driverless car. They’d have more buyers in New England.
Here is Crutchfield Labs’ Home automation guide. (more…)
Is it too late to “flip” houses?
Trulia recently issued a report suggesting that house flipping is a declining activity because prices aren’t increasing enough to make it profitable.
As this excellent Huffington Post article points out there are two types of house flip: one based on price appreciation; and one based on creating value by rehabbing a property. (more…)
Marblehead sales history under $1 million
After I published my Record Million Dollar Sales post with numbers for the last 15 years I was asked to do the same for sales under $1 million. Here goes – in chart form!
First, the number of sales. Note that in 2000 there were 54 sales under $300,000. That number slumped to just 1 in 2005 as prices increased. Similarly, the number of sales from $300-499k more than halved in the strong market of the early 2000s, while sales from $500-749k doubled. The trends then reversed during the slump and changed again as the market recovered.
(more…)Have mortgage rates bottomed?
That’s a bit like saying: is this weekend’s storm the last major one of the winter? The answer is….maybe. Nevertheless, mortgage rates have moved up recently, largely reversing the drop experienced in January when geopolitical factors – the usual suspects, Greece and Russia – contributed to a drop in the yield on the US 10 year Treasury from 2% to 1.7%. That yield has now recovered to 2%, and the 30 year mortgage rate is more or less back to where it was at the beginning of the year, depending on which survey you read (see below for details and comments). (more…)
How your Property Taxes are calculated
This is a repost of the article originally published on February 1st.
Third quarter property taxes are due today. This topic interests us all and yet it is probably the least understood aspect of owning real estate. This article will attempt to explain how property taxes are calculated. I will also make an estimate for the tax rate for Marblehead for FY2016.
Let’s get started.
Tax year
The fiscal year (FY) runs from July 1 to June 30. Thus we are currently in FY2015.
What sales are used as the basis for assessments?
Assessments for the FY2015 are based upon values as of January 1, 2014, using data from calendar year 2013 sales.
It is crucial to understand this time lag. Sales occurring in 2014 will be the basis for FY2016 assessments to be announced in late 2015.
How much can taxes increase each year?
Asking this suggests you are familiar with Proposition 2 1/2, which limits the $ amount that can be raised from property taxes to a 2 1/2% increase from the prior year plus any new growth in the tax base such as new construction. Note that Prop 2 1/2 does not apply to debt exclusions or general overrides. And note also that this limit applies to the overall taxes collected, not to individual tax bills.
Click here for a brief explanation of Prop 2 1/2 on the Marblehead Town website.
Now let’s show how Marblehead’s FY2015 tax rate was calculated. Here’s a table:
The starting point is the amount of the levy for the prior year, i.e. FY2014, of $52.46 million. To this is added the allowed 2 1/2% increase and also new growth, taking the total to $54.1 million. Now add on debt exclusions of $4.9 million bringing the total levy for FY2015 to just over $59 million.
For FY2015 the total assessed value of all property – residential, commercial and personal – is $5.3 billion. Divide the tax levy, $59 million, by this $5.3 billion, and the result is a tax rate of $11.08 (per $thousand).
FY2016 Tax Rate estimate
In January this year the Town Administrator presented the FY2016 Financial Outlook to the Board of Selectmen, containing projections for the tax levy for FY2016 as follows:
Now we know how much tax needs to be raised. The tax rate will be calculated by dividing this number by the Assessed Value of all real estate for FY2016, i.e. based upon sales that occurred during calendar year 2014. In 2014 the median price of a SFH in Marblehead increased by 10% while condo prices were stable. I am going to go with an 8% increase in Assessed Values to $5.75 billion.
This will give a FY2016 tax rate of …….. $10.65 vs the FY2015 rate of $11.08. The only other factor would be any additional debt exclusions approved by voters.
Bear in mind that the tax rate will depend upon the actual Assessed Values for FY2016 and these may well differ from my estimate, but I feel that $10.65 is a reasonable number at this stage. [Note: the actual increase in Assessed Values was only 4% to $5.53 billion, so the tax rate was $11.10: $61.3 billion divided by $5.53 billion. This demonstrates that the top line – the amount to be raised by property taxes – is much easier to predict than the denominator, Assessed Values, which in turn have a great impact on the tax rate.]
Are overrides included in the tax rate?
In asking this question of several people I discovered that most assumed that debt exclusions and general overrides were a separate item. They are not. They are included in the tax rate that is announced each year. Here is the breakdown of the tax rate for the last three years with my estimate for FY2016:
What is the difference between a debt exclusion and general override?
Here are some quotes from the MA Department of revenue website:
“An override is a voted increase in the levy limit. The amount of the override becomes a permanent part of the levy limit base.The budgets adopted by town meetings in Massachusetts are affected by the Proposition 2 1⁄2 limitations upon local property tax levies. So-called overrides of these tax limitations,which allow for additional taxing capacity to fund the budget, may only be approved by a general referendum vote of all town residents.”
“A debt exclusion creates a temporary increase in the levy limit to fund the payment of debt service costs for capital projects funded by borrowing. The additional amount for the debt service is added to the levy limit for the life of the debt.”
Thus an override to fund an operating deficit becomes part of the permanent tax levy and increases occur each year from this higher base.
A debt service exclusion is temporary and disappears when the specific debt is repaid.
Marblehead’s FY2016 Financial Outlook stated: ” there is no need to consider any permanent overrides to fund the town’s operating budget. This has been the case now for 10 years.”
What does Marblehead’s debt exclusion cover?
By far the largest proportion (72%) of the FY2015 exclusion of $4.9 million relates to school costs at MHS, Village and Glover. Next at 17% is the Causeway Seawall. The balance of 11% comes from a variety of sources including the new fire truck, Lead Mills, Stoney Brook clean up, and the Landfill/Transfer Station work.
What effect would general overrides have on the tax rate?
Marblehead’s annual budget is around $70 million (property taxes contribute about three-quarters of the total revenue raised). What if MHD had a budget shortfall and asked residents to vote for a $1 million override? The next table shows the impact if this were to happen for three years in a row:
While it is highly unlikely to impossible that this would happen in Marblehead for a number of reasons, you can see the impact sustained deficits could have on a town’s tax rate.
Conclusion
Low tax rates don’t just happen: they are the result of wise and prudent financial management by a town and a concerned and involved citizenry. In Marblehead we have both.
GO PATS !!!!!!!!!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Did you miss my post about property taxes
Judging by the number of post views it appears that many regular readers missed my post last Sunday, just before the Super Bowl started, explaining how property taxes are calculated.
The easiest way to make sure you do not miss posts is to register to receive email alerts of new posts. This ensures that you do not miss articles and allows you to read those which are of interest to you.
To register go to the home page at www.OliverReports.com and on the right hand side, below the page titles you will see this:
Enter your email address, hit Subscribe and click CONFIRM FOLLOW in the email you will receive instantly.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Million Dollar sales jump in Essex County
Sales of Million Dollar homes in Essex County in 2014 jumped by 40% and are within 10% of peak levels of 2005/2006.
Of the 34 cities and towns in Essex County, 30 recorded at least one sale over $1 million in the last 15 years; 20 saw a sale over $2 million; and 18 notched up a sale above $3 million.
For those wanting a town by town break down, here is a spreadsheet with all the details: Essex_County_Million_Sales_2000_14_town (more…)
Record Marblehead Million Dollar Sales
In line with my forecasts during the year, sales of Million Dollar houses in Marblehead reached a new record level in 2014.
Over the last 2-3 years we have seen the normal trend in a recovering market. The improvement started at the lower end has since spread upwards, reaching the upper end in 2014.
At the highest level, however, there are substantial variations. On the one hand are modernized, well-protected houses that are selling at good prices. But houses that need substantial work or need completely redoing, or which have weather-related exposures which are better understood with all the publicity given to flood insurance in the last few years, are selling at what can appear to be bargain levels.
Truly at the top end, buyers need to be aware of what they are getting – and they seem to be. (more…)
Would you like to buy Big Papi’s penthouse?
Fear not, Red Sox Nation, David Ortiz is not leaving town.
While Why Jon Lester may not be returning to the Red Sox proved to be correct, Big Papi is retaining his main house in Weston, while selling – at an asking price of $3.2 million – the Chestnut Hill condo he has been using during the baseball season.
According to Mapquest the journey from Fenway Park to Weston takes 19 minutes, so maybe Ortiz has decided that, with retirement looming, he needs to save the $28,000 a year he pays in taxes on his condo. Or maybe not. (more…)
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