Closing in on peak prices
The overall housing market is very close to peak levels, which generally occurred in 2005. For both Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole the median price in the first half of 2014 was just 3% below the 2005 peak. (more…)
Plan to visit this spectacular Open House in Marblehead on Sunday
Sunday will be a beautiful day in beautiful Marblehead! (more…)
Marblehead Condo Market – Prices hit record but…..
At first glance, the Marblehead condo market reached a record median price level in the first half of 2014, beating the previous high for the first half by more than $20,000.
But it is always important to keep in mind that the condo market here is small, something which can distort raw numbers. There were 19 sales in the first half of the year. The sale immediately below the median was $328,000 and the one above it $405,000, so one more sale in the quarter could have had a marked impact on the median price. (more…)
Marblehead house prices reach new high for first 6 months
The median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Marblehead reached a record level of $582,500 in the first half of 2014, narrowly beating the previous high of $577,562 in 2006. Note, however, that prices have not yet bettered the levels in the second half of both 2005 and 2006.
The median price for the full year in 2005 and 2006 was $584,000 and $585,000 respectively, so it would appear at this stage that 2014 will see us very close to prior peak levels. (more…)
Accepted offers on Marblehead homes jump 50% in June
Maybe I am suffering from cabin fever on this wet and gloomy 4th, and maybe that makes me write a more dramatic headline than I usually do.
MLS changed the method of reporting properties with an accepted offer in the middle of May 2013, so June 2014 was the first month where we could compare with a year ago. (more…)
Million dollar home sales in Marblehead heading for record
Sales of million dollar homes continued at a brisk pace in the second quarter. YTD there have been 17 sales with a further 15 pending. If all these close, the total will reach 32, within sight of the record 36 in 2005. As there are several months of sales till to come, I think it is a fair bet that 2014 will see a record level of million dollar sales in Marblehead. (more…)
Million dollar homes sales in Essex County – better, but still below peak
Million dollar home sales in Essex County continue to recover from their Great Recession lows, but are unlikely to approach the level of the boom years of 2005-2007. (more…)
A New Inventory Measurement Tool
I am constantly on the look out for new ways to demonstrate the current market (that being what interests most of us) and I have added another calculation to my table: the ratio of pending sales to pending and active combined. For example, if there are currently 50 homes for sale of which 25 have received an offer, my stats will show pending 25 and active 25. The new calculation is the ratio of pending – 25 – to pending and active – 50 – or 50%. Thus the higher the ratio the greater number of houses for sale with an accepted offer and, conversely, the smallest percentage available for sale to a buyer. Note that this calculation should be more reflective of current market conditions than the usual supply figure shown, which is based on sales for the last 12 months. (more…)
Housing inventory remains tight at mid year
While there are about 10% more Single Family Homes (SFHs) currently available for sale than there were a year ago, the inventory as measured by the industry standard of months of supply remains quite tight at 4.4 months in Essex County as a whole, compared with 4.1 months a year ago. A market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
The table below shows the wide range of supply between 3 months or less in Beverly, Lynn, Middleton and Peabody, all the way to 12 months in Manchester and Wenham. (more…)
Do mortgage rates and sales volume really drive home prices?
Conventional wisdom is occasionally right, but I like to query it.
Let’s look at two widely quoted “facts” in real estate: that higher sales are a sign of a healthy market; and that mortgage rates drive prices.
First, I plotted the annual median price of SFHs in Essex County vs the annual level of sales. I think one can say that both sales and prices declined from 2005-2008, but from 2000-2003 prices went up sharply while sales were largely flat, and from 2011-2013 sales jumped but prices were up only modestly. Verdict: some correlation, but no consistent link between sales and prices.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Next I turned to mortgage rates. I keep reading that the reason that sales are down a bit this year is because higher mortgage rates – coupled with higher prices – have made home buying less affordable.
Let’s look at history. I have plotted median prices of SFHs in Essex County against the 30 year mortgage rate.
What we see here is that falling mortgage rates have indeed coincided with periods of rising home prices, as in 2000-2004, but they also fell along with home prices from 2006-2009. And you will note that the absolute level of mortgage rates during the boom years of 2000-2005 ranged from 6-8%, compared with just over 4% today. Verdict: some correlation when mortgage rates dropped from very high levels, but no consistent link since.
Source: MLS, Freddie Mac, Oliver Reports
The decision to buy a home or scale up to a new home is complex. It is driven by a desire to have the security of owning one’s own home, and is influenced by a number of factors: confidence in one’s job and future prospects; confidence in the economy; confidence in the future of home prices.
I asked a respected and well-informed real estate professional yesterday where he thought mortgage rates were today compared with a year ago. He guessed 1/2% higher. The answer? Well according to Freddie Mac, the 30 year mortgage rate this week is 4.14%. A year ago it was 4.46%.
Next week I shall publish my mid-year reviews and these will show that in the first half of 2014 sales were down slightly, the mortgage rate was up, and prices were…….check back next Saturday to find out!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Mid-year housing reviews will be published next week
For once the end of a quarter occurs early in the week – next Monday – so I should have time to write my mid-year reviews and publish them next Saturday. As a follow up to today’s article on the link between home sales, mortgage rates and home prices I will report next week that in the first half of the year sales of single family homes were slightly down, the mortgage rate up – and the median price was also up.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Oceanfront Open House at High Tide
Tomorrow promises to be a glorious day to be on or near the water in Marblehead.
This Open House will take place from 12:30 to 2:15 tomorrow – right on high tide.
Come and see the lifestyle offered by this restored 1850 shingle house with a spectacular carriage house right on the water’s edge.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead condo owners: do you want to sell?
While giving a market update at the Tuesday morning Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty meeting I was struck by how few condos were available for sale in Marblehead over $350,000.
The table below shows sales YTD and pending sales – those with an accepted offer. The last column shows the number currently available for sale.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
These numbers suggest that there is actually quite a good supply of condos under $350,000, but very few available above that price. Clearly, there is demand in the $350-499 range and especially at the higher price level.
If you are thinking of selling a condo in these price ranges now would seem to be a great time to do so.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
$750,000 reduction on Marblehead Oceanfront Compound
The top end in Marblehead is seeing activity. In the last 6 months there have been 1 (private) sale over $4 million and 2 over $3 million, while currently there are 1 over $4 million and 2 over $3 million pending. The highest number of sales over $3 million in any year is 4 in 2007 so 2014 may set a new record.
Now is the time to buy and enjoy summer on the water in Marblehead.
Enjoy the elegance of a bygone era ins this Marblehead Oceanfront restored family compound.
Sun-drenched, South-facing. Views to South Shore. Protected location.
Main house: 6,265 SF, 15 rooms, 7 beds, 4 ½ baths.
Marblehead’s “best located” Carriage house: 2,400 SF: great room, wide planked floors, wide picture window on ocean. Perfect for extended family or weekend retreat.
Great neighborhood. Pool. Private mooring available.Easy access to Logan Airport.
Originally listed at $4.5 million, now $3,749,000.
www.11CrownWay.com
www.MarbleheadEstate.com
www.Facebook.com/11 CrownWay
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Note that the Listing Agent is also the owner of this property.
Which billionaire should buy Marblehead?
A recent Redfin article Which billionaire could buy your city? showed the cities that the wealthiest billionaires could buy. Bill Gates, for example, the world’s richest man (based on disclosed numbers, which rules out Putin and the like who do not disclose their billions), could afford to buy every one of the 114,212 homes in Boston.
The intriguing question is this: who would you like to buy Marblehead? Or more to the point, perhaps, who would you not want to buy Marblehead? (The total assessed value of Marblehead’s real estate is right on $5 bn.)
Rupert Murdoch ($14 bn) could afford it, but would he allow Kris Olson editorial freedom at the Marblehead Reporter?
We are the Birthplace of the American Navy, and have strong American Cup connections, but would Larry Ellison of Oracle ($52 bn) ban traditional sail boats from the harbor and replace them all with high tech vessels?
We don’t have to worry about the traffic nightmare if the Patriots were to relocate to Piper Field as Bob Kraft ($3bn) cannot afford Marblehead.
And surely the best news of all: there is no fear of Donald Trump ($4 bn) taking over and firing everybody.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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