Come to this Marblehead Open House and experience Sophisticated Coastal Living
It will be a beautiful day today in beautiful Marblehead! Plan to visit this Open House from 12-2.
www.15Vassar.com (more…)
Marblehead’s Upper End – was 2013 the bottom?
Because of both the small number of sales and the fact that each house can be very different – ranging from tear down to immaculately restored – it is hard to produce reliable data on the top end – which I define for this article as $2 million plus.
But I can try.
I have looked at sales (including for 2014 pending sales) and compared them with the number of houses available for sale on July 18 each year:
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Marblehead Million Dollar Homes – Record Sales and Record Inventory
Sales of properties between $1 million and $2 million in Marblehead in 2014 have already reached 17 with 11 more pending. Assuming all the pending sales close, the year’s total would be 28, matching the previous peak set in 2005.
In all likelihood, therefore, 2014 will see a new record. Along with increased sales we are also seeing more properties for sale, as the following table shows: (more…)
Closing in on peak prices
The overall housing market is very close to peak levels, which generally occurred in 2005. For both Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole the median price in the first half of 2014 was just 3% below the 2005 peak. (more…)
Plan to visit this spectacular Open House in Marblehead on Sunday
Sunday will be a beautiful day in beautiful Marblehead! (more…)
Marblehead Condo Market – Prices hit record but…..
At first glance, the Marblehead condo market reached a record median price level in the first half of 2014, beating the previous high for the first half by more than $20,000.
But it is always important to keep in mind that the condo market here is small, something which can distort raw numbers. There were 19 sales in the first half of the year. The sale immediately below the median was $328,000 and the one above it $405,000, so one more sale in the quarter could have had a marked impact on the median price. (more…)
Marblehead house prices reach new high for first 6 months
The median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Marblehead reached a record level of $582,500 in the first half of 2014, narrowly beating the previous high of $577,562 in 2006. Note, however, that prices have not yet bettered the levels in the second half of both 2005 and 2006.
The median price for the full year in 2005 and 2006 was $584,000 and $585,000 respectively, so it would appear at this stage that 2014 will see us very close to prior peak levels. (more…)
Accepted offers on Marblehead homes jump 50% in June
Maybe I am suffering from cabin fever on this wet and gloomy 4th, and maybe that makes me write a more dramatic headline than I usually do.
MLS changed the method of reporting properties with an accepted offer in the middle of May 2013, so June 2014 was the first month where we could compare with a year ago. (more…)
Million dollar home sales in Marblehead heading for record
Sales of million dollar homes continued at a brisk pace in the second quarter. YTD there have been 17 sales with a further 15 pending. If all these close, the total will reach 32, within sight of the record 36 in 2005. As there are several months of sales till to come, I think it is a fair bet that 2014 will see a record level of million dollar sales in Marblehead. (more…)
Million dollar homes sales in Essex County – better, but still below peak
Million dollar home sales in Essex County continue to recover from their Great Recession lows, but are unlikely to approach the level of the boom years of 2005-2007. (more…)
A New Inventory Measurement Tool
I am constantly on the look out for new ways to demonstrate the current market (that being what interests most of us) and I have added another calculation to my table: the ratio of pending sales to pending and active combined. For example, if there are currently 50 homes for sale of which 25 have received an offer, my stats will show pending 25 and active 25. The new calculation is the ratio of pending – 25 – to pending and active – 50 – or 50%. Thus the higher the ratio the greater number of houses for sale with an accepted offer and, conversely, the smallest percentage available for sale to a buyer. Note that this calculation should be more reflective of current market conditions than the usual supply figure shown, which is based on sales for the last 12 months. (more…)
Housing inventory remains tight at mid year
While there are about 10% more Single Family Homes (SFHs) currently available for sale than there were a year ago, the inventory as measured by the industry standard of months of supply remains quite tight at 4.4 months in Essex County as a whole, compared with 4.1 months a year ago. A market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
The table below shows the wide range of supply between 3 months or less in Beverly, Lynn, Middleton and Peabody, all the way to 12 months in Manchester and Wenham. (more…)
Do mortgage rates and sales volume really drive home prices?
Conventional wisdom is occasionally right, but I like to query it.
Let’s look at two widely quoted “facts” in real estate: that higher sales are a sign of a healthy market; and that mortgage rates drive prices.
First, I plotted the annual median price of SFHs in Essex County vs the annual level of sales. I think one can say that both sales and prices declined from 2005-2008, but from 2000-2003 prices went up sharply while sales were largely flat, and from 2011-2013 sales jumped but prices were up only modestly. Verdict: some correlation, but no consistent link between sales and prices.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Next I turned to mortgage rates. I keep reading that the reason that sales are down a bit this year is because higher mortgage rates – coupled with higher prices – have made home buying less affordable.
Let’s look at history. I have plotted median prices of SFHs in Essex County against the 30 year mortgage rate.
What we see here is that falling mortgage rates have indeed coincided with periods of rising home prices, as in 2000-2004, but they also fell along with home prices from 2006-2009. And you will note that the absolute level of mortgage rates during the boom years of 2000-2005 ranged from 6-8%, compared with just over 4% today. Verdict: some correlation when mortgage rates dropped from very high levels, but no consistent link since.
Source: MLS, Freddie Mac, Oliver Reports
The decision to buy a home or scale up to a new home is complex. It is driven by a desire to have the security of owning one’s own home, and is influenced by a number of factors: confidence in one’s job and future prospects; confidence in the economy; confidence in the future of home prices.
I asked a respected and well-informed real estate professional yesterday where he thought mortgage rates were today compared with a year ago. He guessed 1/2% higher. The answer? Well according to Freddie Mac, the 30 year mortgage rate this week is 4.14%. A year ago it was 4.46%.
Next week I shall publish my mid-year reviews and these will show that in the first half of 2014 sales were down slightly, the mortgage rate was up, and prices were…….check back next Saturday to find out!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Mid-year housing reviews will be published next week
For once the end of a quarter occurs early in the week – next Monday – so I should have time to write my mid-year reviews and publish them next Saturday. As a follow up to today’s article on the link between home sales, mortgage rates and home prices I will report next week that in the first half of the year sales of single family homes were slightly down, the mortgage rate up – and the median price was also up.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Oceanfront Open House at High Tide
Tomorrow promises to be a glorious day to be on or near the water in Marblehead.
This Open House will take place from 12:30 to 2:15 tomorrow – right on high tide.
Come and see the lifestyle offered by this restored 1850 shingle house with a spectacular carriage house right on the water’s edge.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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