Housing inventory remains tight at mid year
While there are about 10% more Single Family Homes (SFHs) currently available for sale than there were a year ago, the inventory as measured by the industry standard of months of supply remains quite tight at 4.4 months in Essex County as a whole, compared with 4.1 months a year ago. A market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
The table below shows the wide range of supply between 3 months or less in Beverly, Lynn, Middleton and Peabody, all the way to 12 months in Manchester and Wenham. (more…)
Do mortgage rates and sales volume really drive home prices?
Conventional wisdom is occasionally right, but I like to query it.
Let’s look at two widely quoted “facts” in real estate: that higher sales are a sign of a healthy market; and that mortgage rates drive prices.
First, I plotted the annual median price of SFHs in Essex County vs the annual level of sales. I think one can say that both sales and prices declined from 2005-2008, but from 2000-2003 prices went up sharply while sales were largely flat, and from 2011-2013 sales jumped but prices were up only modestly. Verdict: some correlation, but no consistent link between sales and prices.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Next I turned to mortgage rates. I keep reading that the reason that sales are down a bit this year is because higher mortgage rates – coupled with higher prices – have made home buying less affordable.
Let’s look at history. I have plotted median prices of SFHs in Essex County against the 30 year mortgage rate.
What we see here is that falling mortgage rates have indeed coincided with periods of rising home prices, as in 2000-2004, but they also fell along with home prices from 2006-2009. And you will note that the absolute level of mortgage rates during the boom years of 2000-2005 ranged from 6-8%, compared with just over 4% today. Verdict: some correlation when mortgage rates dropped from very high levels, but no consistent link since.
Source: MLS, Freddie Mac, Oliver Reports
The decision to buy a home or scale up to a new home is complex. It is driven by a desire to have the security of owning one’s own home, and is influenced by a number of factors: confidence in one’s job and future prospects; confidence in the economy; confidence in the future of home prices.
I asked a respected and well-informed real estate professional yesterday where he thought mortgage rates were today compared with a year ago. He guessed 1/2% higher. The answer? Well according to Freddie Mac, the 30 year mortgage rate this week is 4.14%. A year ago it was 4.46%.
Next week I shall publish my mid-year reviews and these will show that in the first half of 2014 sales were down slightly, the mortgage rate was up, and prices were…….check back next Saturday to find out!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Mid-year housing reviews will be published next week
For once the end of a quarter occurs early in the week – next Monday – so I should have time to write my mid-year reviews and publish them next Saturday. As a follow up to today’s article on the link between home sales, mortgage rates and home prices I will report next week that in the first half of the year sales of single family homes were slightly down, the mortgage rate up – and the median price was also up.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead Oceanfront Open House at High Tide
Tomorrow promises to be a glorious day to be on or near the water in Marblehead.
This Open House will take place from 12:30 to 2:15 tomorrow – right on high tide.
Come and see the lifestyle offered by this restored 1850 shingle house with a spectacular carriage house right on the water’s edge.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Marblehead condo owners: do you want to sell?
While giving a market update at the Tuesday morning Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty meeting I was struck by how few condos were available for sale in Marblehead over $350,000.
The table below shows sales YTD and pending sales – those with an accepted offer. The last column shows the number currently available for sale.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
These numbers suggest that there is actually quite a good supply of condos under $350,000, but very few available above that price. Clearly, there is demand in the $350-499 range and especially at the higher price level.
If you are thinking of selling a condo in these price ranges now would seem to be a great time to do so.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
$750,000 reduction on Marblehead Oceanfront Compound
The top end in Marblehead is seeing activity. In the last 6 months there have been 1 (private) sale over $4 million and 2 over $3 million, while currently there are 1 over $4 million and 2 over $3 million pending. The highest number of sales over $3 million in any year is 4 in 2007 so 2014 may set a new record.
Now is the time to buy and enjoy summer on the water in Marblehead.
Enjoy the elegance of a bygone era ins this Marblehead Oceanfront restored family compound.
Sun-drenched, South-facing. Views to South Shore. Protected location.
Main house: 6,265 SF, 15 rooms, 7 beds, 4 ½ baths.
Marblehead’s “best located” Carriage house: 2,400 SF: great room, wide planked floors, wide picture window on ocean. Perfect for extended family or weekend retreat.
Great neighborhood. Pool. Private mooring available.Easy access to Logan Airport.
Originally listed at $4.5 million, now $3,749,000.
www.11CrownWay.com
www.MarbleheadEstate.com
www.Facebook.com/11 CrownWay
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Note that the Listing Agent is also the owner of this property.
Which billionaire should buy Marblehead?
A recent Redfin article Which billionaire could buy your city? showed the cities that the wealthiest billionaires could buy. Bill Gates, for example, the world’s richest man (based on disclosed numbers, which rules out Putin and the like who do not disclose their billions), could afford to buy every one of the 114,212 homes in Boston.
The intriguing question is this: who would you like to buy Marblehead? Or more to the point, perhaps, who would you not want to buy Marblehead? (The total assessed value of Marblehead’s real estate is right on $5 bn.)
Rupert Murdoch ($14 bn) could afford it, but would he allow Kris Olson editorial freedom at the Marblehead Reporter?
We are the Birthplace of the American Navy, and have strong American Cup connections, but would Larry Ellison of Oracle ($52 bn) ban traditional sail boats from the harbor and replace them all with high tech vessels?
We don’t have to worry about the traffic nightmare if the Patriots were to relocate to Piper Field as Bob Kraft ($3bn) cannot afford Marblehead.
And surely the best news of all: there is no fear of Donald Trump ($4 bn) taking over and firing everybody.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Pending home sales reach record in May
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) issued a report this week Future Indicators showing that pending sales of single family homes (SF) in Massachusetts in May were the highest for any May since records started in 2004, while pending sales of condos were second only to those in May 2005.
After the brutal winter we endured, it is not surprising that buyers emerged with gusto when the weather finally broke.
I can imagine that one of the most frustrating things for a journalist must be seeing a headline for an article which conveys a misleading impression (in general journalists write the story while the headline is written by somebody else). Thus the headline on this article is, in part: Price and Market Confidence Index down.
On reading the article, the median price for SFHs increased in May by 7.4% in May while that for condos was up 8.6%. So to what does the headline apply?
“As more inventory starts to make its way to the market, REALTOR®-member confidence that prices will continue to go up isn’t as strong as it has been,” said Ruffini. “However, buyer demand is strong based on pending sales and hopefully that should start to push the REALTOR® Market Confidence Index up in the coming months.”
Note that this refers to those Realtors who responded to a survey. It does not say that those Realtors think prices are not going up; just that they are not as strongly convinced as they were at this time last year. Since Realtors in general are independent contractors working alone I always suspect that such surveys are more a reflection of that Realtor’s personal business pipeline than a considered, research- driven analysis of the economy and real estate trends.
We have seen a number of press headlines in recent months suggesting that prices are going up more slowly than they were a year or so ago. Suppose prices last year went up from $400,000 to $440,000. That’s a 10% increase. Now let’s assume they go up by $40,000 again this year. Because the denominator is now bigger ($440,000 rather than $400,000) the increase this year is “only” 9%. So the headline writer will say: “price increase slowing.”
A primary goal of my articles is to help buyers and sellers of real estate understand what is really happening. When you see articles about real estate, go past the headline and read the actual reports. And then use common sense. And then you will know “the rest of the story.” And you can always ask me!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
How quickly are Marblehead homes selling?
The peak time for listing homes for sale is the spring and the question we then ask is how quickly those homes are selling.
Just over a year ago the MLS changed the way it reported pending sales which also affected Days on Market (DOM) calculations. For an explanation of the impact of the changes read this article I wrote on the subject.
It is only now that we have a year of comparable data. I have looked at the number of SFHs in Marblehead that have received an accepted offer (or in MLS’s elegant expression “went pending”) month by month:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
74 homes have sold so far this year with a further 54 pending, taking the total sold and pending to 128. If the offer level of last year is repeated – and if we assume that houses that go pending by the end of October close by year end – we’d end the year with about 240 sales, which would be second only to 2004’s extraordinary level this century.
One measure often quoted is DOM, but it is one to which I do not pay much attention. Here’s why. In a strong market with limited inventory, houses that have been for sale for some time may eventually find a buyer. A good example would be the top end in Marblehead, where inventory has been large and houses have sat on the market for some time.
In the last couple of weeks two houses listed at $3.5 million have received accepted offers. These houses were on the market for 410 and 775 days respectively. Finally, they have found a buyer, which is good news. But if their DOM are included in the overall market figure it would offer a misleading impression of activity at other price points.
In summary, I would say that the current market shows steady sales, but there are no stories of multiple offers above listing prices as is common elsewhere. As I reported during the great recession, Marblehead didn’t participate in the crazy boom and largely sat out the consequent slump. This year prices will likely be back to or very near peak levels of 2005/6, but this will happen in a quiet and civilized manner – just like Marblehead itself.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty
Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Are mortgage rates really going to jump this year?
At the start of each of the last two or three years we have been warned that mortgage rates were likely to increase, possibly sharply, in the coming year. Last year, when the Fed announced that it was thinking of ending its purchase of mortgage-backed securities, there was indeed a sharp jump, but since then rates have dropped back again.
So far this year the yield on the US 10 year Treasury, the main determinant of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage, has dropped from 3% to 2.5% and mortgage rates have followed, with the rate reaching 4.12% in Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey. The same geopolitical factors (that would be Russia’s expansionist activities) that have sparked renewed buying of US Treasuries are also restraining economic growth in Europe. There are no signs of renewed inflationary pressures.
Against that background, the yield of 2.5% on 10 year Treasuries compares favourably with that in Germany, 1.4%,or Japan, 0.6%, with only the UK at 2.6% offering a comparable return.
While it is hard to see the reason for mortgage rates to rise, it is also worth bearing in mind that we remain very close to all-time lows. I am including a chart of rates over the last year together with one going back to 1971. (more…)
Salem Power Plant finally closes: cruise ships scheduled for October
The final transmission to the New England power grid is scheduled for 1 second before midnight tonight. The message, according to the Salem News article What next for Salem Power Plant?, will be, in effect: “closed for business.”
According to the Salem News, this is what we can expect to happen in the coming months:
– for about six weeks, the grounds will be made safe – draining oil from machines, disconnecting electricity – for the demolition contractor
– around mid-July sound-proofing fencing will be erected near Derby Street and the demolition of the plant, starting with the oil tanks, will start
– the smokestack that once served units 1-3 will come down, followed by the taller one
– the demolition crew will work roughly south to north along the harbor, and the main plant building will be one of the last things to be demolished
According to Kathy Winn of the Salem Planning department, the deep-water coal dock will be revamped to accommodate cruise ships, the first of which is scheduled to arrive in mid-October. (more…)
Are you following these trends in luxury homes?
On a(nother) dreary Saturday morning, let’s take ourselves away and look at trends in luxury home sale listings. This table shows the changes in terms used in listings of luxury homes (those listed at 4 or more times the median price for their area) from 2012 to 2013 according to Trulia.
Overall, the trend shows increased emphasis on “expansive windows, great views and fitness amenities” and away from “indoor cooking and eating.” (more…)
…and here come the buyers
Last week I commented Here come the sellers on the wave of new houses hitting the market and asked if the buyers were ready. Well, this week we got the answer. Read on to find out what it was. Here is a table showing the number of Single Family Homes (SFHs) which received an accepted offer in recent periods: (more…)
Is the housing boom coming to your Town?
The Boston Globe this week published an article Boston and beyond – another housing boom may be bigger than the last showing that the median price of a home in Cambridge was now 30% above the previous peak in 2005 and suggesting that the boom was starting to move out further from Boston.
In my article this week –and here come the buyers I show how prices in Marblehead have a shot this year at getting back to peak levels. I continue to believe that the strength of the housing market will encourage buyers to trade up to higher levels again, now that they can be more confident that the market is on firmer ground. And the top end continues to see increased activity, with another $3 million plus house receiving an accepted offer this week. (more…)
Here come the sellers – are you ready, buyers?
Each week in Marblehead – and in some other surrounding towns – there is a Broker Tour of new houses coming to the market. This is when selling brokers have the opportunity to show their listings to other agents so that they can recommend the property to their buyers.
It is also a gauge of how much new supply there is. As the spring selling season gears up one would expect the number of listings to increase. It has. And this week there were 18 new Single Family (SFH) and 5 new condo listings on the Tour.It was a hectic morning dashing round to see as many as possible! (more…)
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