North Shore housing inventory gently rising
Spring and early summer see the greatest number of both listings and sales and the supply numbers at the beginning of June are a pretty good indicator of the current market.
The quick summary is that supply is gently rising, but not enough to change the balance of power which remains firmly with sellers, although as my next post shows this does vary according to the price bracket. (more…)
$80,000 reduction: waterfront Colonial with dock on nearly an acre
Wow! Come and see this beautiful home at 36 Crestwood Road, Marblehead (West Shore Drive to Shorewood Road to Pinecliff Drive to Crestwood Road), reduced to $1,295,000. Open House Sunday 12-2.
“This looks like a model home”, was one comment I heard. “What a beautiful re-do” was another. (more…)
Mortgage rates jump to highest level in a year
According to Freddie Mac the average 30-year rate rose for the fourth consecutive week to 3.81 percent, up from 3.59 percent last week, and nearly 1/2% higher than the 3.35% at the beginning of May. A year ago the rates was 3.75%.
The 15-year rate also increased to 2.98 percent from 2.77 percent.
With much discussion about when and how the Federal Reserve will move to reduce or end the Quantitative Easing policy which has kept interest rates low for an extended time, does the action of the last month indicate that mortgage rates have finally bottomed?
And will home buyers react, as they often do to rising mortgage rates, by rushing to buy now and lock in what is still an historically low rate?
Read Freddie Mac report
Massachusetts median Single Family Home price up 10.5% in April
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released its April report this week.
Other highlights:
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFHs) eased 1% from a year ago, the third straight month of slight year over Year (YOY)declines, caused by the shortage of homes available for sale.
But… April saw a big jump in new listings (it’s called Spring) which, according to MAR, should help the market move closer to being balanced.
Days on Market (DOM)for SFHs was 110 in April 2013, down from 126 a year ago.
Inventory at the end of April was down 27% YOY and represented 5.6 months of supply, vs 9 months a year ago and up from 5.3 months in March.
Read report
Marblehead Waterfront Colonial with Dock and almost an acre: Open House Sunday
Come see this wonderful Colonial on Sunday 12:00 – 2:00 pm. (more…)
Marblehead Oceanfront 2 House Compound Open House Sunday
11 Crown Way, Marblehead. Sunday 12:00-1:30
Two houses on one lot make this ideal for extended family, nursing home alternative or just for a weekend and summer retreat without having to battle the traffic.
This spectacular oceanfront compound offers an elegantly restored, south-facing, sun-drenched 6,265 sq. ft. main home with 15 spacious rooms including 7 bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths.
Plus Marblehead’s most stunningly located carriage house with an additional 2,404 sq. ft. of living space.
Property is uniquely protected from coastal storms.
Access to a private beach. Wonderful neighborhood; private mooring available. $4.5 million.
www.11CrownWay.com
All-time one-day record for homes Under Agreement throughout Massachusetts
Tuesday, May 21st, 2013 saw an all-time record for the number of homes going Under AGreement (UAG). In Marblehead alone the number almost doubled to 69 and the same pattern was duplicated throughout the State.
Does this mean that we should be wondering if Massachusetts is entering a housing bubble, as some were concerned in Los Angeles earlier this year? What is going on? (more…)
Record visits to OliverReports.com this weekend
Maybe it was the subject matter – the upper end of the market – but whatever the reason my blog had a record number of visits this weekend.
If you stumbled on my site by chance, please either “friend” Oliver Reports on Facebook or sign up at www.OliverReports.com for email alerts of new postings.
I publish one or more articles every Saturday on a variety of real estate related topics. My goal is to make the articles short and topical.
As my home page says, Oliver Reports is: “The source for Marblehead and North Shore real estate news.”
And I also publish comments on the Boston market from time to time because of the influence that market has on the entire region.
Where have all the buyers gone?
Wait a minute, don’t I mean sellers? Isn’t the lament – posted here and everywhere else – that the housing market is being held back by the lack of sellers?
Well, yes, that is certainly true at lower price levels. In MHD, for example,there are just 16 Single Family Homes (SFHs) available for sale under $500,000, compared with a total of Sold, Under Agreement and with an Accepted Offer (SUAGAO) of 59 so far this year. That works out to less than 2 months of supply, when 6 months is regarded as a stable market.
But while the market at the higher end is booming in Boston and robust elsewhere, buyers at $1.5 million and above seem largely to have given the North Shore a pass, at least so far.
Here are some numbers I ran yesterday for Marblehead which I found startling. So far this year, the number of SFHs under $1.5 million that had either Sold, were Under Agreement or had an Accepted Offer (SUAGAO) was 124. The number available for sale was just 59, so sales and pending sales were more than twice the available supply.
Now let’s look at SFHs at $1.5 million and above. The number available was 35 – or more than half the number under $1.5 million. But the number that have sold or received an accepted offer (SUAGAO) was….4. Let’s be explicit. If sales at this level were at the same pace as sales below $1.5 million the number of sales and accepted offers would be 73. But it is just 4. (more…)
Waterfront property in Marblehead $1 million below Assessed Value
One of the surprises to me this year has been the relatively low level of activity in Marblehead waterfront property. I know there is quite a lot of supply, but with the top end hitting new highs in Boston and other cities it does seem that there is an opportunity to buy wonderful property at a great price. As my attorney said to me when I closed on my house many years ago: “they can’t make any more waterfront”.
Recently a beautifully elegant waterfront property came on the market for $1 million below its Assessed Value. The house does need some updating – and I know from personal experience how much it can cost to restore an old house – but if you are in the market for a traditional, New England waterfront property, this is well worth a look.
I’d love to tell you more about this house but apparently it would be a breach of ethics for me to do so as I might be deemed to be recommending a property listed by another Realtor. Go figure.
While there may appear at first glance to be a lot of waterfront homes for sale at the moment, the detailed analysis that a buyer at this level would undertake quickly shows that there are several different categories, by location, condition and style for example, that whittle the number down rapidly when a buyer’s criteria are considered.
And as I point out in another post this morning, the buyers at the upper end are active elsewhere. Surely the delights of summer on the water in Marblehead will attract buyers soon!
Detailed home sales for Massachusetts Counties
Please click on the link below to see the breakdown of Sold, Under AGreement and Accepted Offer (SUAGAO) stats by price bracket and County.
Counties_SUAGAO_May_17_2013
Would you like four years of college tuition payments with that mortgage, madam?
What is the difference in interest payments between a 15-year and 30-year mortgage on a $500,000 loan?
Go on, guess. $25,000? $50,000? That sounds like a lot, but it’s not even close. Total interest payments on a 30 year loan at 3 5/8 % come to over $320,000. At today’s rate of 2 7/8 %, the total on a 15 year loan would be just……$116,000. That’s a saving of $204,000 !!! Yay, Harvard for free! (more…)
The Flaws of the Case-Shiller Index
When the Case-Shiller index, the most widely quoted index of housing prices, reported this week Read report that home prices rose 8.6% for its 10-City index and 9.3% for the 20-City index for the year to February, the news was greeted with headlines such as CBS’s “Us Home Prices Surging”.
Well, as the Beach Boys sang a long while ago, “You Know I hate to be a Downer”, but this is a good time to remind everybody that, as I have mentioned regularly in my year end reviews, the Case-Shiller Index has serious flaws.
Dan Green in his The Mortgage Reports (www.TheMortgageReports.com) takes up the argument this week, pointing out that:
“1.The Case-Shiller Index tracks values of detached, single-family homes only
2.The Case-Shiller Index includes sales of discounted, distressed homes
3.The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a 2-month time delay
In this way, the Case-Shiller Index ignores multi-unit homes and condos; and allows its findings to be dragged down by foreclosures and short sale which sell at discounts of 20%; while applying price data from contracts written as many as 5 months ago.
Furthermore, the home index falls apart when we consider its limited scope. All real estate is local, yet the Case-Shiller Index tracks 20 U.S. cities and calls itself a “national” index. There are 3,100 municipalities in the United States. The Case-Shiller Index accounts for fewer than 1 percent of them.” (more…)
Marblehead and North Shore home sales in April
In April the number of Single Family Homes (SFHs) sold in Marblehead was 23 against 17 last year, bring the Year To Date number to 54 compared with 44 last year,
As of May 1 there were 58 SFHs with an accepted offer. Were all these to close by June 30 – which they won’t, but others not yet with an accepted offer will – total sales for the first half of the year would be around 110.
Last year’s sales reached 229, the highest total since the extraordinary 285 of 2004. We are unlikely to challenge the 2004 level but we do seem to be moving back into the 220-240 range of the early 2000s.
Condo sales so far are 6 against 7. A further 8 had accepted offers as of May 1. At this stage it seems quite likely that sales will not match last year’s 42.
For the 17 North Shore cities and towns I track, sales of SFHs increased 6% for the first four months of the year while condo sales were up 12%.
North Shore Housing Inventory remains low in May
Using the same data as in previous months, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFHs) remained pretty steady at 4.6 months supply as of May 1, compared with 4.5 months at April 1. For condos, supply increased from 5.0 months to 5.5 months.
April sees a flood of new properties coming to market for the peak spring selling season so an increase in supply is normal. In actual numbers, there wee 725 SFHs available (that is without an accepted offer) compared with 623 a month earlier, while there were 346 available condos, up from 292 a month earlier.
These numbers make the point that while the absorption rate remains high, there are now more properties available for sale, as one would expect at this time of year.
I am not publishing the tables I have shown in recent months because I have decided to change my methodology. I have been using the Last 3 Months for calculating absorption rates and hence how many months of supply is represented by the available properties. The problem with that is that is that it makes no allowance for seasonality. For example, April’s number of homes for sale – the start of spring selling – was compared with actual sales in January- March, the slowest quarter of the year.
For this month I am using the Last 12 Months believing that this will smooth out some of the seasonality. It’s not perfect, but then neither is the weather in New England and that’s the real cause of the seasonality.
Using L12M, the inventory for SFHs drops to just 3.6 months, with Peabody under 2, and several under 3. Here is the table:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Similarly, condo supply drops to 4.4 months, with Salem, the largest condo market, being one of the tightest. Here’s the condo table:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The equation is unchanged: low inventory + low mortgage rates = higher prices.
Recent Comments