Massachusetts 2015 Housing Market Review
The Single Family (SFH) market in Massachusetts in 2015 saw a 10% increase in sales and a 3% increase in the median price, returning the latter to within 1% of the 2004 peak.
Sales
The 10% increase in 2015, all of which came in the second half of the year, took sales just above the prior peak in 2004.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median Price
The median price increased a modest 3%, taking it to within 1% of the 2005 peak.
As is quite normal, the highest prices were achieved in Q2 and Q3.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Summary
While it is hard to draw meaningful conclusions from numbers covering 353 cities and towns, the overall picture is of a market that has largely returned to normal.
The Massachusetts economy remains strong – GE’s decision to relocate to Boston will only help – and mortgage rates are once again close to all-time lows.
Barring geopolitical disasters, the outlook for 2016 is for a gently improving market in Massachusetts.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I hire to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
What matters more – the number of sales or the price?
I read a report recently listing the 25 “hottest” real estate markets in Massachusetts, ranked by the percentage increase in sales. This raises the question: what matters more – the number of sales or the price?
One argument is that a big increase in home sales is a strong indicator that it is “becoming a sought-after location for homeowners”—in other words, a “hot” market.
So let’s look at 2015 and compare the hottest 25 with the State overall (note these numbers include SFHs, condos and multi-families, and are the median numbers):
There is always a wide range of price and sales increases or decreases, but I note that only 1 of the 25 hottest towns had an increase in double figures, while 5 recorded decreases in the median price.
Overall, the 25 hottest towns did somewhat better than the State, which is good news – especially for the real estate agents selling those extra properties.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Marblehead Condo market review
The highlights of this 2015 Marblehead Condo market review are that sales recovered back to their 2008 level, while the median price – which must always be treated with caution in a small market such as Marblehead – declined slightly. Note the analysis of sales a little further on in this report. Click here to read my review of the Single Family market.
Sales
In the years from 2000-2006, sales of condos in Marblehead averaged 71 a year; from 2007-2014 that number dropped to 43. The 53 recorded in 2015, while the best since 2008, was still well below the levels from the early 2000s.
Median Price
Because of the small number of sales and seasonal variation (weather!) I do not report on quarterly numbers for condo sales. Marblehead condo market analysis is further complicated by the fact that there are two very different markets: the older, former 2-4 apartment buildings; and the newer, purpose-built (including some harbor front) condos.
Here is a chart of the last 5 years. Note the low numbers for 2012 and the first half of 2015 and then look at the tables below the chart.
The table below shows how in 2012 sales under $300,000 accounted for 62% of the total, while in 2013, 2014 and 2015, sales under $300,000 averaged 42% of the total. That tells us that the median price in 2012 was skewed downwards by the unusually high number of lower priced sales.
2015 was a good example of the bifurcation of the condo market in Marblehead, with a median price of $241,000 in the first half and $340,500 in the second half. So let’s look at the breakdown of sales:
In H1, 10 of 18 sales – 56% – were under $250,000, while in H2 only 8 of 35 sales – just 23% – were in that price range. Here again we see evidence of how the median price can be influenced by the breakdown of sales.
In Marblehead in 2015 sales of condos took place from $120,000 to $1.3 million. What this report confirms is that there is no “condo market” as such in Marblehead, but a number of different types of condos, the number of each of which coming on the market varies from year to year.
Assessed Value to Sales Ratio (ASR)*
See below for a fuller explanation of ASR, but if sales take place above Assessed Values, then the Ratio will be below 100%. In 2015, the median ASR was 85.8%, which means that the median condo sold for 17% more than its Assessed Value.
Supply
Even Marblehead was not immune to the challenges faced more widely in the condo market during the great recession, when financing became much more difficult for condos, particularly in mixed use and older developments. In July 2009 there were 50 condos for sale in Marblehead, but that number has dropped sharply in the last few years:
Conclusion
The supply of condos for sale in Marblehead has dropped, while there are few new condos being built or converted.That is a formula for higher prices.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Sales and home prices rise in Essex County
In the first 11 months of 2015 sales and prices of both SFHs and Condos in Essex County and Massachusetts have increased at generally similar rates:
The sales increase for condos seems to be the one out of sync between Essex County and the State as a whole so I have looked at the breakdown by County, showing that sales were flat in the two largest Counties:
MLS, Oliver Reports
Overall, these numbers confirm the reports all year of a market that has returned to the normal condition of gently rising prices. (more…)
El Nino is good news for housing market
Back in July I wrote No snow this winter, a somewhat optimistic comment about the effect El Nino might have on our weather this winter.
Yesterday I read El Nino seen warming Us economy on Bloomberg, with economists quoted as saying “a milder winter supports growth in housing and consumer spending”.
The last two winters have seen unusually cold (think polar vortex) and snowy weather, and in both years the real estate market in New England got off to a slow start. With the economy growing strongly in Massachusetts (forecasts put 2015 growth at 5%), 2016 could be a very good year in the housing market, with the possibility that the gains seen in Metro Boston in the last few years will extend further outwards. (more…)
Home sales: from feast to famine?
The old saying is that there are three things that matter in real estate: location, location and location.
In the same vein there are three things that matter in real estate statistics: never rely upon one month’s numbers, never rely upon one month’s numbers….well you can guess the third one. (more…)
Essex County Mid-Year Housing Review
In the first half of 2015 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) increased slightly, while sales were basically flat, despite the low inventory. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were steady year on year, but are way down from the levels of 2010-2012.
Median Prices
The median price for the first half of 2015 was $385,000, up from $380,000 in 2014, and close to the 2005 peak of $390,000..
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
AAA rated Marblehead – again
As this For seventh consecutive year Marblehead attains AAA bond rating Marblehead Reporter article points out, Marblehead is one of just 45 of Massachusetts’ 351 cities and towns to be rated AAA by Standard & Poor’s.
S&P cited Marblehead’s “very strong economy, strong management with good financial policies and practices, strong budgetary performance, very strong liquidity and budgetary flexibility, strong debt and contingent liability position, and strong institutional framework” as positive credit factors, according to the Town’s press release.
These factors contribute to a robust real estate market, described thus in the Town’s Comprehensive Financial Report:”… continues to be in the revitalization stage of the real estate cycle as demonstrated by the continued number of “tear downs” and redevelopment of 17 new dwellings. Additionally, smaller subdivisions are in the planning stages. Local realtors continue to maintain that this market has seen the strongest demand since the peak of the market in 2006. Average marketing time for properties is less than 3 months if priced properly. Demand continues to outweigh supply resulting in a seller’s market and an upward trend in values.” (more…)
Essex County town by town home prices compared with the peak
In a week when the National Association of Realtors reported that nationally home price have surpassed their 2006 peak I have looked at median SFH prices town by town in Essex County for the first half of 2015 compared with the first half of 2006.These numbers show that median prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts are back to 2006 levels, but with wide variations from town to town.
Here’s the table: (more…)
Essex County Median Home Prices Town by Town
This report shows Single Family Home (SFH) median prices for each city and town in Essex County for 2015 compared with 2014. Several towns have a very small number of sales, especially in the first quarter, so I have used the half-year prices to calculate the change from 2014.
The second table shows the towns with the largest increase and decrease year over year. Overall, the message is that prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts have edged up 1% in 2015. As always, there are variations from town to town. (more…)
MA condo supply: is it really only 1.8 months?
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report in July contained the following statement: “Massachusetts currently has only 1.8 months’ supply of condominiums available, compared with 6 to 7 months’ supply in a balanced market.”
Really? Wow. As I often point out, statistics are extremely useful if you know the context and can put the numbers into perspective. The above comment, however, does not explain the period being measured. As the months of supply figure is calculated by dividing the number of units currently for sale by sales in a given period, it is necessary to know what the given period is. (more…)
Foreclosure update: down but not out
What we mostly hear about these days are reports such as this Home prices surpass July 2006 peak from the National Association of Realtors.
We don’t hear as much about distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – so I have looked at the trend since the beginning of 2014 in Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole, and then looked at the pattern since the foreclosure crisis really started in 2009.
The message from these numbers, which relate to Single Family Homes, is that while distressed sales have dropped sharply in the last 2-3 years, they still account for more than 1 in 20 of all sales in both Essex County and Massachusetts overall. (more…)
How quickly are homes selling in Boston?
According to a recent report from Redfin, homes in the Boston area (see map below) sold at record speed in May: (more…)
Marblehead pace of accepted offers doubles
I have been looking at accepted offers and this is what I have discovered for Marblehead this year vs last year:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Marblehead: sales jumping, inventory plunging
Since May 15, 23 Single Family Homes (SFH) have received an offer in Marblehead, while there are currently just 67 SFHs for sale, compared with 116 a year ago at this time, a decline of over 40%. But the position for buyers may be even worse than it appears.
One of the numbers I follow is the number of days a property has been on the market (DOM). Last year MLS introduced a new measure, Days to Offer (DTO), which – yes- the number of days a property is on the market before it receives an accepted offer.
A house receives the greatest attention, from both buyers and agents, when it first comes on the market, but as time moves on the listing becomes stale. In an active market such as exists now, a property sees the most activity and interest in the first 30 days.
With that in mind, let’s look at three categories: current inventory, pending sales and sales so far in 2015. In each case I will show a pie chart of the overall picture (at the end of the article are tables showing the breakdown by price band). I’ll summarize and add my conclusions after the charts.
Current Inventory (more…)
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