Is this why the housing market is heating up?
The stock market hit an all-time high this week, unemployment dropped to 7.7%, and the Federal Reserve reported that Americans have regained the $16 trillion in wealth lost during the Great Recession.
In contrast, home prices nationally remain, depending on the index, up to 30% below peak levels, while mortgage rates are at all-time lows.
Plus, as I reported last week, home ownership between 2004 and 0212 declined by 3.6% or some 4 million households.
Add to that an historically low level of houses for sale, and what do you get?
In classical economic theory, the relation between supply and demand determines the price of a commodity. As demand for an item increases, prices rise. When manufacturers respond to the price increase by producing a larger supply of that item, this increases competition and drives the price down
Demand is up and increasing
Supply is at historic lows
New housing starts remain well below “normal” levels and can’t be increased quickly
Based on the above, where do you think prices are headed in 2013?
Associated Press; March 7, 2013
WASHINGTON — It took five years, but surging stock prices and steady home-price increases have finally allowed Americans to regain the $16 trillion in wealth they lost to the Great Recession.
(more…)
Home ownership in MA exceeds national average for first time ever in 2012
It came as a shock to me to discover that home ownership in MA had trailed overall numbers for the US ever since 1900 – until 2012 that is.
First look at this table from 1900 to 2010:
Source: US Census Bureau (more…)
There is no housing bubble. Really?
When I saw this headline I wondered if I had done a mini Rip van Winkle and fallen asleep for a few years. But no, it was a headline this week in an article read here referring to Southern California.
As America appears to be ready to go on a national diet after many years of super-sizing I found myself wondering if housing terminology were going through a similar metamorphosis. (more…)
National Year End Housing Data
Last week’s publication of year end confirmed that 2012 was the year of recovery in the nation’s housing market. Here are the key data:
Existing home sales reached 4.65 million, up 9.2% from 2011, and the highest volume since 2007
Total inventory, or houses for sale, fell to 1.82 million, or 4.4 months of supply, the lowest since May 2005. Inventory is down 21.6% from a year ago, when the supply was 6.4 months.
The median price was $180,800 in December, up 11.5% from a year ago: 10.9% for SFHs and 16% for condos. For the year overall the median price increased 6.3%.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 24% of sales in December, down from 32% a year ago. Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 17% and short sales 16%, according to NAR.
New homes sales: 367,000, up 19.9% from 2011.
The median new home price was $243,600, up 7.2% from 2011.
30 year mortgage rate: 3.35% in December, down from 3.96% a year ago.
Sources: National Association of Realtors; Commerce Department; Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates forecast to rise 1% by end of 2013
In my November 27 article Refinancing – don’t make just the minimum payment I wrote: “Don’t assume that rates will either go lower still or that they will necessarily stay this low for as long as the Federal Reserve is currently saying. If the economy does strengthen from here, interest rates my move up sooner than expected.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association has just issued a forecast that mortgage rates will increase gradually as the economy improves and finish around 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
MBA_December_Commentary_82991
More reason to consider buying NOW!
Fannie Mae Housing Survey shows expectations of rise in home prices and mortgage rates in 2013
Consumer confidence in the housing sector grew last month, marked by continued positive attitudes toward home price, rental price, and mortgage rate expectations, according to Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey results. The growing belief held by Americans that these housing indicators will climb in 2013 may inspire a boost in home purchase activity during the coming months.
Listen to a podcast:Fannie Mae housing-survey-podcast-010713
or read the surveyFannie Mae December 2012 national housing survey
November Pending Home Sales rise for 19th straight month
The NAR estimates that sales should increase 8-9% in 2013 to about 5.1 million, with the median price rising 4%.
National Association of Realtors December 28, 2012
Full Story
Case-Shiller: prices rose 4.3% in year to October, above estimates
It is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength.
Last week’s final revision to third quarter GDP growth showed that housing represented 10% of the
growth while accounting for less than 3% of GDP.
S&P/Case-Shiller December 26, 2012
Full Report
November Existing-Home Sales and Prices Maintain Uptrend
Existing home sales in November were up 14.% from a year ago and reached the highest level since November 2009.
The median price rose rose for the 9th consecutive month and is up 10.1% from a year ago.
Housing inventory fell to 4.8 months of supply, the lowest level since September 2005.
National Association of Realtors, December 20, 2012
Full Story
Improving Housing Trends likely to continue into 2013.
A combination of factors, including declining time-on-market, a drop in distressed properties and rising average home prices, are all pointing to a strengthening housing market in the months ahead.
Campbell/InsideMortgage Housing Pulse, December 21, 2012
Full Story
Foreclosures drop 28% in year, lowest since December 2006
The latest data offers “more evidence that we are past the worst of the foreclosure problem brought about by the housing bubble bursting six years ago,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac
National Association of Realtors, December 13, 2012
Full Story
Foreclosure crisis finally appears to be ebbing
Jay Fitzgerald, Boston Globe, December 1
As a result of an improving economy and successful loan modification programs, the foreclosure crisis both in MA and nationally finally seems to be ebbing.
Full Story
“Every Single Thing About Housing Is Flashing Green”
These were the words used by J.P.Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, in a recent interview with CNBC. Dimon pointed out that housing formation was up, inventory down and housing affordability was at an all-time high.
In my mid-year 2011 Marblehead Reporter review I wrote: The biggest restraining factor today is probably confidence, or the lack thereof.”
The following news items indicate that confidence is returning to the real estate market across the country. (more…)
Housing starts unexpectedly increase to 4 year high
Shobhana Chandra, Bloomberg, November 20,2012
New-home construction unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high in October, more evidence of a revival in the industry that’s helping propel the U.S. economy.
Housing starts rose 3.6 percent to a 894,000 annual rate, the fastest since July 2008 and exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists called for an 840,000 pace.
Permits for the construction of single-family homes also advanced to the highest in four years. Full Story
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