Where have all the sellers gone?
I am sure I am not alone in expecting that housing inventory would be higher this (early) spring, given the mild winter and continuing low interest rates,but that has not happened. In this post I look at inventory for both Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos for local towns, Essex County and Massachusetts.
Marblehead, Swampscott, Beverly and Salem
None of these markets has higher inventory than last year – the big snow year, remember? All are sharply down from 2013 and 2014.
Similar story for condos – look at the drop in Salem.
MLS, Oliver Reports
Essex County and Massachusetts
These don’t show well in a chart so here are the numbers, which show a similar, but less pronounced pattern.
Changes in inventory since 2013
The last two charts show the percentage decline in inventory since 2013.
MLS, Oliver Reports
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should list my house for sale?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Swampscott 2015 Housing Market Summary
In addition to my more detailed reports I am publishing this summary showing just the main numbers.
For more details on the SFH market read Swampscott 2015 Housing Market review and for condos Swampscott 2015 Condo market review.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Swampscott housing market review
This 2015 Swampscott housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I shall publish a separate report on the condo market. I have also published a one page Summary of the main numbers.
For the year sales increased 10% to a new record, while the median price increased 5%, but is still some 11% below the 2005 peak. 2005 was, however, an exceptional year (read What happened in Swampscott in 2005?) and the 2015 level was the second highest reported. I suggested in my mid-year review that the shortage of inventory should lead to higher prices in the second half of the year and that did, indeed, occur, with a strong finish to the year in Q4.
Median price
Sales
Sales were a record in 2015, beating the previous peak of 170 in 2004.
Sales at the higher end has been impacted by Swampscott’s high tax rate, so it was encouraging to see a sharp increase in sales above $1 million in 2015:
ASR*
Even though Swampscott had a significant increase in its Assessed Values last year, the ratio of AV to Sale Price (see below for an explanation) increased only to 90.5%, meaning that the median sales prices was 10% (100/90.5) above the new Assessed Values.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
Swampscott continues to see new development and conversions, and its proximity to Boston, whether by commuter train or the T from Wonderland, ensures that the market remains attractive to those who accept the trade off with higher taxes.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall.
Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What happened in Swampscott in 2005?
While housing markets in Boston and places like Cambridge have been hitting new highs for the last 2-3 years, it takes time for higher prices to ripple further out. When the final numbers are tallied, the median price in Essex County in 2015 will be within about 1% of its peak, with many towns already reaching new highs. In Swampscott, however, the median price is still 11% below its peak, leading me to ask: what happened in Swampscott in 2005?
Price mix of sales
Only a very small percentage – 5% or less – of SFHs change hands each year, so while the median price of those that do sell can and does provide a good indication of the market, there is always the possibility that sales in any year will not be reflective of the overall housing market. It is for the same reason that we see quarterly fluctuations in median prices when sales in any quarter are skewed to a particular price range. These fluctuations do, however, tend to even out over time.
I looked at the sales in Swampscott for 2005 and compared them with the years either side. This is what I found: the biggest difference was that sales under $400,000 – which were 34% of the total in 2004 and 39% in 2006 – were only 20% in 2005. Conversely, sales over $500,000 were 53% in 2005, compared with only 35% in 2004 and 34% in 2006.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
My conclusion is that 2005 was an outlier in terms of its sales mix. Had 2005 seen a more normal mix of sales, then the median price would have been somewhere in the mid $400s and we would now be talking of a market close to its previous peak.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Prime Swampscott development opportunity
I have just listed almost 4 acres of prime development land in Swampscott close to the High School and Commuter Train, and only 12 miles from Logan Airport. Possible ocean and Boston views.
Click Prime Residential Development Opportunity to download the brochure. (more…)
How Swampscott has combined its High School and Senior Center
I read an interesting article this week in CityLab.com about how Swampscott had combined its High School and Senior Center. (more…)
Essex County Median Home Prices Town by Town
This report shows Single Family Home (SFH) median prices for each city and town in Essex County for 2015 compared with 2014. Several towns have a very small number of sales, especially in the first quarter, so I have used the half-year prices to calculate the change from 2014.
The second table shows the towns with the largest increase and decrease year over year. Overall, the message is that prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts have edged up 1% in 2015. As always, there are variations from town to town. (more…)
Swampscott Mid-Year Housing Market Review
Inventory in the Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott remained well down on last year, while sales were slightly up. The outlook is for an increase, possibly a sharp one, in the median price in the second half of the year.
Median Prices
The median price for the first half of 2015 was $445,000, up 1% from $439,000 in 2014. (more…)
Swampscott’s shrinking Housing Inventory
Swampscott’s housing inventory has actually declined since the beginning of May, a period that has seen a 30% increase in inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County overall. (more…)
Housing Inventory still down heading to July 4
As we head towards July 4th, often the target date for home buyers wanting to be in their new homes for the start of the school year, housing inventory remains well down from a year ago. (more…)
Marblehead vs Swampscott
On BostonGlobe.com under Lifestyle, Real Estate, there is a tool to allow the reader to compare two towns. Here is a link to Marblehead vs Swampscott;
The most notable comparisons: (more…)
What’s happening – or not – in the Marblehead market?
I am always cautious about reading too much into short-term trends, especially in a market like Marblehead with a small number of sales, but at the same time I do try to report on current market conditions.
And I am puzzled by what has been happening over the last 2-3 weeks – or rather by what has not been happening. And that is houses receiving accepted offers. (more…)
We’re off: more listings, Open Houses
As expected, we have seen a decent number of new listings this week. We even have the promise of 60 degrees and sunshine on Sunday.
So make plans to visit these Open Houses:
(more…)
Beverly, Salem and Swampscott Housing Market Reports
In the world of small numbers it is necessary to be cautious about drawing too many conclusions. That is why, for example, I am not including percentage changes for the tables below. The message I take from these numbers is that, in general, the market continues to progress in an orderly manner. (more…)
Housing inventory: how low can it go?
A recent Boston Globe article Snow delays spring market highlighted the lack of inventory in the, you know, “important” markets such as Cambridge and Somerville.
We know inventory is down from last year, when if you remember we had the polar vortex, but where do we stand, here in Essex County and indeed throughout Massachusetts, compared with the last several years? (more…)
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