Housing Inventory and Supply: a town by town guide

This report has two parts. In the first I show the inventory of Single Family Homes SFH) for sale compared with this time for the last two years; and in the second I show how many months supply those numbers represent.

Overall in Essex County the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale as we head into Labor Day weekend is down 21% from a year ago and down 28% from this time in 2014. The numbers for Massachusetts overall are very similar: down 21% from last year and down 26% from 2014.

The supply, based upon sales for the last 12 months (L12M), in Essex County, has dropped from 4.2 months in 2014 to 3.6 months in 2015 and to just 2.6 months currently. Massachusetts overall has seen a similar drop from 5.1 months to 4.5 and now just 3.2 months. Bear in mind that a housing market is generally deemed to be in balance between buyers and sellers when supply is at 6 months. When the inventory is less than 6 months, as now, it is called a sellers’ market.Like now.

Inventory
Just 4 towns – Beverly, Essex, Lynnfield and Topsfield – show an increase in supply, mostly insignificant, compared with a year ago, and only 3 – Andover, Middleton and Newburyport – an increase from 2014.

Supply
I have shown two numbers for each town for each year: supply based upon the last 3 months (L3M) sales and on the L12M. The market in Massachusetts is seasonal: June-August typically sees the highest number of sales in any 3 month period, so using that number alone would give the impression of tighter supply than using the L12M. Nevertheless, L3M does give a very current picture of supply.

Comment
There is a saying that all real estate is local. While I agree with that when it comes to buying a particular house, it is also valuable to know and understand what is happening in the broader market. If, for example, you are looking to buy in a town with seemingly adequate supply, it is important to know that throughout Essex County and Massachusetts supply is very tight, and therefore ask questions about the market in the town with higher supply. Thee may well be a reason, and knowing the broader trend will alert you to ask questions.

Overall, as I have been saying for some time now, the economy is doing ok, mortgage rates are close to record lows, inventory is low – all the ingredients for a continuing steadily improving housing market. It will be interesting to see if the forthcoming elections cause some slow down in the next couple of months.

Here is a spreadsheet  Essex_For Sale_Supply_Sep_2_2014_2015_2016_towns which combines both the inventory and supply numbers for each town. I can provide a more detailed analysis of any town on request.

If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.

Read  Which broker should I choose to sell my house?

If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.

Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

@OliverReports