El Nino: warmer than what?

I have written before about how this year’s forecast of warmer than normal weather in the Northeast could be good news for real estate markets, but this week’s brutally cold snap raises the question, El Nino: warmer than what?

I am sure my daughter got bored, as she was growing up, of hearing me say how important it was to understand the difference between relative and absolute. Thus, if the temperature tomorrow morning is say 15 degrees, it will be relatively warmer than today’s 8 degrees, but it will still be absolutely freezing.

Looking for guidance as to what to expect for the next three months I spotted this January-March 2016 outlook from the Weather Company, thanks to wunderground, my favourite source for weather information.

The report mentions the “potential for a significant cold snap in parts of the central and eastern states starting in the middle portion of January”, but goes on “… however, there are several other factors in the atmosphere, operating on shorter time scales, that can, at times, oppose the overall three-month trend.”

OK so now I am starting to struggle with the forecast. It doesn’t get any easier: “An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or warmer weather, respectively, that bucks the overall three-month trend. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend that is forecast.”

I know this is blog is meant to be rated G but I could not help noticing the reference to PV – Polar Vortex – in the following: An Icelandic storm .. tugged above-freezing air to the North Pole between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. “The rapid and unexpected destruction of the tropospheric* polar vortex, via the historically strong North Atlantic storm this week, has thrown a significant monkey wrench into the January forecast.”

OK so I think I have this clear. In the Northeast the weather is going to be warmer this winter

unless that Polar Vortex thingy does something or other in which case it will be

colder. And neither warm nor cold spells should be taken as a guide to the weather for the rest of the winter.

I love science: it is so precise.

*I know you know this but just in case it has slipped your mind, “the troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere and site of all weather on Earth. The troposphere is bonded on the top by a layer of air called the tropopause, which separates the troposphere from the stratosphere, and on bottom by the surface of the Earth.”

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].

Read  Marblehead 2015 Housing Market review  and Marblehead 2015 Condo Market review. Further 2015 reviews will be published shortly.

Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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