What’s happening – or not – in the Marblehead market?
I am always cautious about reading too much into short-term trends, especially in a market like Marblehead with a small number of sales, but at the same time I do try to report on current market conditions.
And I am puzzled by what has been happening over the last 2-3 weeks – or rather by what has not been happening. And that is houses receiving accepted offers. (more…)
Housing Inventory: better in places but still tight
As we move into the spring selling season we are seeing the traditional pick-up in inventory, although it varies from town to town. Overall in Essex County, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale is 15% lower than a year ago, while the number of condos is down 17%.
Here are the numbers for each city and town. First, SFH: (more…)
Essex County housing inventory: worse than you think
After my article yesterday Marblehead inventory:even worse than you think I have looked at Essex County overall.
There are currently 1352 Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County, down nearly 20% compared from 1660 a year ago at this time. But the position for buyers is even worse than it appears.
Marblehead housing inventory: even worse than you think
There are currently just 49 Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Marblehead, compared with 90 a year ago at this time. But the position for buyers is even worse than it appears. (more…)
Don’t believe real estate headlines
Information overload. “News” is so freely available online that it is hard to know what to believe and what not to believe.
Take real estate-related headlines. (more…)
Which matters more – home sales numbers or price?
No, no, it’s not a trick question.
I am also intrigued when I hear or read of a report on commentary about the real estate market which leads with sales numbers. I suspect – usually correctly – that such a report comes from a Realtors’ association. I mean, how many houses does the average home buyer buy or sell in a month, or a quarter, or a year. Quite. (more…)
Essex County Housing Inventory by town
Here is a town by town breakdown of inventory compared with a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Essex County Housing Inventory at low levels
Low inventory has, rightly, been cited as a factor frustrating many would-be home buyers. But how low is inventory currently?
Here is the answer, comparing today’s supply with that a year ago, for Essex County, first for Single Family Homes (SFHs). To put these numbers into perspective, the total represents just over two months of sales based upon the last year. A market with six months of supply is generally regarded as one being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
Sales are, of course, lower in winter, but nevertheless these numbers suggest a severe shortage of homes for sale as we move towards spring. (more…)
Farewell February: we shall not miss you
“Stay not upon the order of thy going but go” are, according to my memory, the words spoken by Lady Macbeth. But when I checked, I found the actual quotation is:”Stand not upon the order of your going, but go at once.” I don’t wish to criticise Shakespeare but I actually prefer my version.
And either is better than the “modern” text version:”Don’t bother exiting in the order of your rank, but just leave right away.”
How can anybody take the majesty of Shakespeare’s prose and turn it into such prosaic English is beyond me.
It reminds me of the story I heard of a young Rabbi explaining to a man in his new congregation that the rewriting of Psalm 23, in which “my cup runneth over” became “my cup overflows”, was to make the meaning clearer. Unconvinced, the man replied:”Rabbi, my cup runneth over, it’s my toilet which overflows.”
And what, if anything, does this have to do with real estate you may be asking?
Well, I suspect a lot of people are fearing that the snow will be on the ground well into – I won’t say spring, but let’s say April. People will stay indoors, home owners won’t be able to get their houses ready for sale, and the housing market will freeze (ho ho!) up.
How long the snow will remain on the ground is, therefore, a factor in the housing market. Earlier in the week I posted The snow may disappear earlier than you think quoting Dave Epstein (@growingwisdom). Epstein has now posted another excellent article Spring really is coming. Well, that’s not the actual title of the article, but again I like my version better than the author’s.
The article explain how the hours and intensity of sun shine will increase dramatically over the next three weeks. As Epstein says:”This increase in solar radiation will start to rapidly melt the snow and transform our barren landscape.” The transformation may also extend to the real estate market. Whether you are a buyer or seller, it is time to get ready to act.
I had an email recently from a frustrated buyer who has been looking for over a year for a house to buy. He asked what it will take to increase the very low inventory of houses for sale. Here is my answer: Why home prices will go up in 2015.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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A New Inventory Measurement Tool
I am constantly on the look out for new ways to demonstrate the current market (that being what interests most of us) and I have added another calculation to my table: the ratio of pending sales to pending and active combined. For example, if there are currently 50 homes for sale of which 25 have received an offer, my stats will show pending 25 and active 25. The new calculation is the ratio of pending – 25 – to pending and active – 50 – or 50%. Thus the higher the ratio the greater number of houses for sale with an accepted offer and, conversely, the smallest percentage available for sale to a buyer. Note that this calculation should be more reflective of current market conditions than the usual supply figure shown, which is based on sales for the last 12 months. (more…)
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