Housing supply even tighter than a year ago
The supply of houses and condos for sale in North Shore towns, as well as throughout Essex County and Massachusetts, is down from last year’s levels – which were themselves low.
Housing markets are generally regarded as being in equilibrium between sellers and buyers when the supply of houses for sale is equal to the number that would be sold in 6 months. So a housing supply of 6 months represents equilibrium; more than 6 months means the supply is high enough to favor buyers; less than 6 months the lack of supply favors sellers – what is known as a sellers’ market.
The following tables show the numbers for 2016 in the left column and 2015 in the right one.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Overall supply in both Essex County and Massachusetts is less than 4 months and down from a year go. In individual towns, only Marblehead has a slight increase in supply, but the number remains below 6 months:
Condos
The condo market is even tighter with supply of less than 3 months in Essex County and Massachusetts, and all areas showing a decline from this time a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
This analysis shows the overall markets. There will be differences at differing price points, but because higher-priced houses usually take longer to sell, that means supply at the lower prices is even less than shown.
The housing market here may not be crazy, but clearly there is less supply than buyers would like.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Massachusetts Q1 Housing Market Review
This report reviews the Massachusetts Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago.
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of SFHs jumped sharply, not just from last year’s level, but from that of the last several years and were the highest recorded in my records going back to 2000. Condo sales were also up significantly, but are still lower than in the heady days of 2005-2007.
The median price of both SFHs and condos was within 1% of last year’s Q1 levels. Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Current Inventory
The median SFH price in Massachusetts is around $360,000. While overall inventory for SFHs is down 7% from last year, the decline is concentrated below $500,000.
Numbers for the condo market in the entire State are distorted by the inclusion of Boston. The vast majority of the condos for sale over $1 million are in Boston, and places like Cambridge, Brookline and Newton. While the overall decline in inventory is 6%, it is 15-19% under $350,000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
When is the best time to buy or sell a home in Massachusetts?
We probably all “know” that the best time to sell a home is the spring or early summer, right? But is there evidence to back up that belief? This article provides the answer to the question: when is the best time to buy or sell a home in Massachusetts?
I looked at the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) by quarter over the last 16 years. (Note that in all my reports, while sales numbers include all recorded MLS sales, median prices exclude distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales).
The highest price recorded each year is highlighted. This shows that in 14 of the 16 years the highest median price was recorded in Q3 – July to September. In the other two years the highest price was achieved in Q2, but in none of the years did Q1 or Q4 see the highest price.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The next table shows the same data but with the lowest quarterly price highlighted. Here we see that in 12 of the 16 years the lowest median price was seen in Q1 and in the other 4 years it occurred in Q4, but never in Q2 or Q3.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Let me summarize these in a table:
Conclusion
While the argument has always been made that the spring or summer is the best time to sell a house because that is when there are more buyers looking (hence, higher sales take place), the evidence here adds the additional information that the best prices are also achieved in the summer months.
Thus, as a seller one does indeed want to be ready to go to the market when the thermometer rises. Conversely, the best time to buy is :
In the bleak mid-winter
Frosty wind made moan,
Earth stood hard as iron,
Water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow,
Snow on snow,
In the bleak mid-winter
Long ago.
Sounds a lot like today.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Massachusetts 2015 Condo Market Review
This Massachusetts 2015 Condo Market review shows that sales in 2015 were steady, while prices overall rose 3%. But – and it’s a big but – the inclusion of Boston in numbers for all 353 cities and towns in the State distort the result. In this report I break out Boston and show how the rest of the State fared in 2015.
Sales
Condo sales in Massachusetts have been steady for the last three years, but are still sharply down from the 2005 peak.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median Price
It may appear surprising, at first blush, that the median price of a condo in Massachusetts should show a 20% increase over the 2005 level. There is a one word explanation: Boston.
The first chart shows just the overall condo market, while the second breaks out Boston and shows Massachusetts ex Boston. Removing Boston from the calculation reduces the increase since 2005 to 10%, while the median price in Boston has increased more than 50% in the same period.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Summary
The inclusion of Boston condos – the main market in the city – distorts the numbers for the State overall. Nevertheless, it is encouraging that the median condo price, excluding Boston, still reached a new paek level in 2015.
The Massachusetts economy remains strong – GE’s decision to relocate to Boston will only help – and mortgage rates are once again close to all-time lows.
Barring geopolitical disasters, the outlook for 2016 is for a gently improving market in Massachusetts.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I hire to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Massachusetts 2015 Housing Market Review
The Single Family (SFH) market in Massachusetts in 2015 saw a 10% increase in sales and a 3% increase in the median price, returning the latter to within 1% of the 2004 peak.
Sales
The 10% increase in 2015, all of which came in the second half of the year, took sales just above the prior peak in 2004.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median Price
The median price increased a modest 3%, taking it to within 1% of the 2005 peak.
As is quite normal, the highest prices were achieved in Q2 and Q3.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Summary
While it is hard to draw meaningful conclusions from numbers covering 353 cities and towns, the overall picture is of a market that has largely returned to normal.
The Massachusetts economy remains strong – GE’s decision to relocate to Boston will only help – and mortgage rates are once again close to all-time lows.
Barring geopolitical disasters, the outlook for 2016 is for a gently improving market in Massachusetts.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I hire to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
What matters more – the number of sales or the price?
I read a report recently listing the 25 “hottest” real estate markets in Massachusetts, ranked by the percentage increase in sales. This raises the question: what matters more – the number of sales or the price?
One argument is that a big increase in home sales is a strong indicator that it is “becoming a sought-after location for homeowners”—in other words, a “hot” market.
So let’s look at 2015 and compare the hottest 25 with the State overall (note these numbers include SFHs, condos and multi-families, and are the median numbers):
There is always a wide range of price and sales increases or decreases, but I note that only 1 of the 25 hottest towns had an increase in double figures, while 5 recorded decreases in the median price.
Overall, the 25 hottest towns did somewhat better than the State, which is good news – especially for the real estate agents selling those extra properties.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Sales and Median Prices Town by Town
As promised in my Are home sales really booming? article this weekend I am now publishing a town by town guide to Sales and Median Prices for the year through August. (more…)
New listings remain subdued
Another quite week for new listings and, disappointingly, still no private islands: (more…)
Essex County Mid-Year Housing Review
In the first half of 2015 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) increased slightly, while sales were basically flat, despite the low inventory. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were steady year on year, but are way down from the levels of 2010-2012.
Median Prices
The median price for the first half of 2015 was $385,000, up from $380,000 in 2014, and close to the 2005 peak of $390,000..
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Mortgage rates dip below 4% again – where next?
National mortgage rates for the 30 year FRM (Fixed Rate Mortgage) dipped below 4% again this week after seven weeks above 4%.
Source: Freddie Mac
And the 30 year FRM is still lower than it was a year ago:
Source: Freddie Mac
Forecasting that mortgage rates will rise has been a favourite occupation of soothsayers ( or economists as they like to call themselves) for a couple of years now. My last article on the subject in June was Mortgage rates “forecast to reach 4.5% by year end”, quoting the Mortgage Bankers Association.
When will the Federal Reserve raise rates? (more…)
Essex County town by town home prices compared with the peak
In a week when the National Association of Realtors reported that nationally home price have surpassed their 2006 peak I have looked at median SFH prices town by town in Essex County for the first half of 2015 compared with the first half of 2006.These numbers show that median prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts are back to 2006 levels, but with wide variations from town to town.
Here’s the table: (more…)
Essex County Median Home Prices Town by Town
This report shows Single Family Home (SFH) median prices for each city and town in Essex County for 2015 compared with 2014. Several towns have a very small number of sales, especially in the first quarter, so I have used the half-year prices to calculate the change from 2014.
The second table shows the towns with the largest increase and decrease year over year. Overall, the message is that prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts have edged up 1% in 2015. As always, there are variations from town to town. (more…)
Foreclosure update: down but not out
What we mostly hear about these days are reports such as this Home prices surpass July 2006 peak from the National Association of Realtors.
We don’t hear as much about distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – so I have looked at the trend since the beginning of 2014 in Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole, and then looked at the pattern since the foreclosure crisis really started in 2009.
The message from these numbers, which relate to Single Family Homes, is that while distressed sales have dropped sharply in the last 2-3 years, they still account for more than 1 in 20 of all sales in both Essex County and Massachusetts overall. (more…)
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