Home sales soar – or do they?
Last month, when commenting on the National Association of Realtors (NAR) report on existing homes sales which generated headlines relating to a sales “plunge” I posted Home sales plunge – or do they?, referring to the fact that delays in closings occurred in November after the implementation of new mortgage disclosure rules, the effect of which was to push some sales into December.
So what happened in December? Existing-home sales “soared 14.7 percent” to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in December from 4.76 million in November.
What really happened?
Let’s ignore the fluctuations late in the year and look at 2015 as a whole:
– sales of SFHs were up 7% YOY and the median price increased 8%
– sales of condos increased 12% YOY and the median price was up 5% (more…)
Home sales plunge – or do they?
A recent article headlined a home sales plunge in November, but as always it pays to look into the numbers in more detail.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) used a more moderate headline in its Existing home sales suffer setback in November report.
So what actually happened in November? (more…)
Home sales: from feast to famine?
The old saying is that there are three things that matter in real estate: location, location and location.
In the same vein there are three things that matter in real estate statistics: never rely upon one month’s numbers, never rely upon one month’s numbers….well you can guess the third one. (more…)
Mortgage rates: déjà vu all over again
Well the Federal Reserve did not increase short-term interest rates this week and there was little movement in mortgage rates, which remain under 4% for the 30 year fixed rate (FRM) and close to historic lows:
The underlying assumption behind the Fed’s forecasts and those by groups such as the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is that there will, inevitably, be an increase in inflation at some point and that interest rates will start to rise as that becomes more certain.
How accurate have past forecasts been? (more…)
What can you buy for $725 million?
A lot of baby-boomers today are thinking of down-sizing.
But what if you want to up-size? What are the options? (more…)
Mortgage rates dip below 4% again – where next?
National mortgage rates for the 30 year FRM (Fixed Rate Mortgage) dipped below 4% again this week after seven weeks above 4%.
Source: Freddie Mac
And the 30 year FRM is still lower than it was a year ago:
Source: Freddie Mac
Forecasting that mortgage rates will rise has been a favourite occupation of soothsayers ( or economists as they like to call themselves) for a couple of years now. My last article on the subject in June was Mortgage rates “forecast to reach 4.5% by year end”, quoting the Mortgage Bankers Association.
When will the Federal Reserve raise rates? (more…)
Home Prices are rising, but so are Rents
Quite often I read articles about home ownership “affordability” suggesting that rising home prices are making home ownership more difficult for many people. Yet these articles rarely if ever point out that the alternative to home ownership – renting – is also seeing rising prices.
This Bloomberg article Your rent’s about to get even higher points out that
Source: US Census Bureau, Bloomberg
Rising rent = more of your money being paid to the person who owns the home in which you live, while that person benefits from any increase in the home’s value
Rising home prices = an increase for you in the value of your home if you own it.
So who do you want to help make money – you or your landlord? (more…)
Why there are so few houses for sale
For the past two years the main story in the housing market has been the lack of inventory, of houses for sale.
But why is that? (more…)
“Buyers are coming back in force”
That quote comes from Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), following publication of the NAR’s Economic and Forecast Update.
Highlights of the report include:
– Existing home sales in May were the highest since 2009, when there was a homebuyer tax credit
– Pending home sales hit a 9 year high
– New home sales hit a 7 year high
– Housing permits for new homes hit an 8 year high
– and
Housing market: 7 reasons for optimism
MarketWatch.com published Housing market can’t lose this week.The main reasons for optimism are:
Prices: rising but at a moderate rate
Equity: as prices rise so more homeowners have equity in their homes – now up to 90% of all mortgaged properties
First-time homebuyers: loans to first-time homebuyers are now the highest in 22 years of surveys from the American Bankers Association
Foreclosures: the number of loans in foreclosure is the lowest since 2007.
Construction: both starts and permits are showing strong momentum
Supply: nationally 4.8 months, below the 6 months considered to reflect a market in equilibrium between and sellers. Listings are 15% lower than a year ago.
Family net worth: has reached a new record. (more…)
Mortgage rates spike; will housing market collapse?
I have been warning for some time Mortgages rates: how low can they go?, Have mortgage rates bottomed?, Mortgage rates are rising that mortgage rates were likely to rise and this week they did spike, with the 30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) at National Grand Bank in Marblehead increasing from 3.75% to 4%, with the likelihood that the rate will move to 4 1/8% on Monday after movement in the bond market on Friday.
The second part of the headline refers to a number of comments I have heard in the last few days about how the spike in mortgage rates may kill off the still-recovering housing market. It won’t. (more…)
4 reasons home prices will keep going up
Here are 4 reasons home prices will continue to increase over the longer term: (more…)
Will baby boomers kill the housing market?
Will a flood of baby boomers cashing out their home equity be too much for the housing market to bear? That is the question I was asked recently.
One of the difficulties in trying to make personal decisions, like whether to buy a house today in the town of your choice, based on long-term, national forecasts (for example, boomers cashing in their housing chips) is the risk of missing out on a lot of known positives – i.e., home ownership – in fear of unknown possible negatives.
But let’s look at some of those big questions. See also 4 reasons home prices will keep going up . (more…)
Reasons to Sell your Home in Winter
Today’s Boston Globe carries this article Why selling in winter may be a good idea.
In addition to the benefits mentioned – less inventory means less competition for sellers, while those buyers who are out there are serious – I would add that mortgage rates have dropped sharply already this year and are not far off record lows. See my Mortgage rates: how low can they go? post from yesterday. (more…)
Detroit property rebounding: the Chinese are coming……
A recent NBC report Chinese investors snap up property in bankrupt Detroit cited Chinese online property site juwai.com as saying that Detroit was the number 4 destination in the US for Chinese housing investors.
That makes me wonder if my posts about Detroit property over the last year Detroit housing market continues to improve and Is Detroit real estate a bargain? have been read in the People’s Republic. Probably not. (more…)
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