Why I ignore economic forecasts

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Almost daily, it seems, we get another batch of dismal economic statistics and equally dismal forecasts. But all forecasts are meaningless because nobody knows how long the shut-downs will last around the world, how quickly economies will resume and what the “new normal” will look like.

Will the recovery be V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped or, for that matter, pear-shaped?

We do not know. So even though I have a degree in economics, spent my career on Wall Street and am a statistician, I ignore all these numbers.

Listening to negative news can have a negative effect psychologically. Better to to focus on some positive news. Here’s one example: 99-year old Capt. Tom Moore who set out to raise GBP1,000 for the National health Service by walking 100 laps of his garden before his 100th birthday on April 30th. At the last count he has raised GBP 23 MILLION!

There are many similar stories all round the world, examples of the determination and goodwill of many, many people, the spirit that gets us through wars and catastrophes.

One real estate comment. Over the last say 20 years there has been a trend towards people wanting to live in big cities and also to live in open plan homes. Going forward, big cities will be seen to be less attractive, especially for those with families, and open plan homes less conducive to multiple family members needing work spaces.

Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]

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