Swampscott Mid-Year 2018 Housing Market Report
(Click here to download a PDF of this report.)
The recent strong growth in the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Swampscott continued in the first half, with the median price increasing by 7% from a year ago to $577,750.
While quarterly prices can and do fluctuate, the median price has now exceeded $500,000 for seven consecutive quarters.
SFH Sales
After a sharp drop in 2017, sales recovered in 2018 to the levels of 2014-2016.
Sales by Price
The increase in the median price can also be demonstrated by the fact that the percentage of houses that sold for less than $500,000 dropped from 51% in 2016 to 32% in 2017 and to just 27% in 2018.
Of the 73 sales, 11 took place at list price and 28 above list price.
SFH for sale
As of July 1, there were just 7 houses for sale in Swampscott under $600,000. At the other end of the scale there were 9 for sale over $1.5 million, while there were only 2 sales at that level in the first half of the year. Notably, one of those sales occurred at $7.7. million, one of only 10 sales over $7.5 million in Essex County in MLS records, and almost double the previous highest price recorded in Swampscott.
Condos
As we saw in Beverly with Elliot Landing, a large new development can have a major impact on the reported median price since new developments are usually of higher-priced units. The 42 units at Avery will have a similar impact on the median price in Swampscott. In the first half of 2018 there were 9 sales recorded at Avery at prices from$370,00 to $500,000. Without the Avery sales, the median price for the first half would have been $299,900.
Sales by Price
Without the Avery sales the percentage of sale under $250,000 would have been 20%, down from 43% in 2016.
Condo for Sale
The MLS numbers for July 1 include only 2 units at Avery, although there are 21 currently available.
Summary
It took 12 years for the median SFH price to beat the $517,300 achieved in 2005, but that figure has now been put firmly in the rear view mirror. With only 13 of 30 pending SFH sales at list prices under $600,000, and just 7 of the 30 SFHs for sale listed under $600,000, there is every chance that the median price will top $600,000 in the second half of 2018. Meanwhile, Avery continues to transform the condo market in Swampscott.
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Are houses coming to the market in Marbehead and Swampscott?
This article follows up a couple of recent posts demonstrating that while 50% of houses may be selling in 30 days or less, that means that 50% are taking 30 days or longer to sell.
The tables below shows that houses are coming on to the market. While the number of houses for sale in the last 6 weeks has increased by just 7 in both Marblehead and Swampscott, there have been 40 new listings in Marblehead during that period and 37 in Swampscott.
There are houses for sale: you need to be ready to act and also willing to look at those houses which have been on the market for a little while.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Essex County Q1 2018 housing market: prices continue to increase
The first Quarter of the year is the slowest one for sales in Essex County (weather!), typically representing about 15% of the year’s total. The smaller the number of sales the less significant is the data, so the numbers for individual towns can and do fluctuate from quarter to quarter.
As the numbers get bigger so does the significance. In the 34 cities and towns of Essex County overall, sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) were down 4% from Q1 2017 while the median price increased 4.4%.
In the whole of Massachusetts, sales were flat and the median price increased 3%,
The table below shows the median SFH price for each town for the last three years; and the median price and sales for Q1 for 2017 and 2018. The mid-year data, which I shall publish in mid-July, will give a better feel for the market in individual cities and towns, but these numbers support the general perception that the housing market in Essex County continues to show price increases.
OliverReports.com
Swampscott market surges to new high in 2017
(Click here to download a pdf of this report.)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Swampscott in 2017 jumped $42,000, or 8.6%, to a new high of $530,000, finally surpassing the prior 2005 peak of $517,300. Sales, however, reflecting the low inventory all year, dropped to 135 from 157 in 2016 and 183 in 2015.
Median price
The first chart shows median prices since 2000. I find it helpful to look at longer term trends and this chart shows how prices – which had already risen for some years prior to 2000 – jumped sharply in the early years of the millennium, with a spike in 2005, and dropped during the Great Recession. Prices have been moving upwards for the last three years.
Source:Oliver Reports
Swampscott Q3 Housing Report: prices break through $500,000 – at last
The startling decline in inventory at lower price levels over the last two years has contributed to a 9% increase in the median price of SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2017 to a record level of $530,000. It is likely that 2017 will see the old 2005 record median price of $517,300 broken – finally.
Median Price
6 of the last 8 quarters have seen median prices above $500,000.
Swampscott Mid-Year Review: Prices hit new high
Reflecting the low level of inventory, sales of Single family Homes (SFHs) dropped sharply in the first half of 2017, but the median price increased by 10% to a new high for the first half of the year of $539,900 and is on track – finally – to surpass the 2005 peak of $517,300 for the full year.
For most of the year the number of condos for sale has been 5 or fewer and the number has only “jumped” to 9 because of the new Avery development. The median price in the first half increased 16% to a new high of $295,750, but in a small market with wide variation in prices the median price can reflect the type of condo sold in a particular time period. Nevertheless, 15 of the 37 Condo sales in the first half of the year took place above the list price, an indication of strong demand.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Here is the chart of half-yearly median prices since 2012, followed by a table showing quarterly numbers.
In a seasonal (think winter) market with a limited number of sales, quarterly fluctuations can and frequently do occur (which is why I place greater emphasis on semi-annual and annual numbers)
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Sales
The shortage of inventory has caught up with sales.
SFH Sales by price
This table shows that the percentage of houses selling below $500,000 has declined in the last three years from 59% to 51% and now just 32%. Since the median price is that at which 50% of sales are higher and 50% lower, as the percentage dropped from above 50% to below it, so the median price has moved from under $500,000 to above it.
Current SFH Inventory
There are currently 5 SFHs for sale under $500,000 and a total of just 18 under $1 million. The biggest change compared with last year is the drop from 20 to 10 in the number for sale between $600,000 and $1 million.
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Condo Market
The condo market in Swampscott is small and varies from modestly priced developments around Vinnin Square to luxury oceanfront units. Those two factors can – and frequently – do cause swings in the recorded median price. The larger the sample the more reliable the number (the law of large numbers) so I place some confidence in the half-yearly number and most in the full year’s figure. Note also the breakdown in sales by price shown after the pricing information.
MLS, Oliver Reports
Condo Sales by price
This table shows that the percentage of condos selling below $250,000 has declined in the last three years from 59% to 43% and now just 25%. Since the median price is that at which 50% of sales are higher and 50% lower, as the percentage dropped from above 50% to below it, so the median price has moved from under $250,000 to above it.
15 of the 37 Condo sales in the first half of the year took place above the list price, an indication of strong demand.
Current Condo Inventory
5 of the 9 condos currently for sale have just come on to the market at the new Avery development, which will add 42 units to the market.
COMMENT
It is no surprise that the combination of very low inventory, strong demand and low mortgage rates has finally pushed the median price of SFHs selling in Swampscott to a new high, with 20 of the 54 SFH sales taking place above list price. While the factors cited last, there is no reason to expect a change in the upward movement of prices.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
60 groups at Swampscott Open House
Is there strong demand for houses under $600,000? Well last weekend 60 groups visited an Open House for a property in that price range and the house went under agreement on Monday. It would be a reasonable bet that it will sell for over the list price.
Is there strong demand? I think the answer is obvious.
Read my Swampscott market report just published for an up-to-date report on the current market.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q1 2017 Housing Market Report: inventory shortage
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) dropped in Q1 while prices rose sharply. Caution is needed because of the low volume of sales, but the chart below the table, showing sales YTD, pending sales and current inventory, clearly suggests that the median price is going to remain above $500,000 and threaten, at last, to break the 2005 peak of $517,300.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median price
YTD the median price of sales is $524,000; the median list price of pending sales and homes available for sale are both well in excess of $550,000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
In markets such as Swampscott with a small number of condo sales I do not report in depth on Q1 numbers, which saw sales increase from 9 to 14 while the median price declined from $268,050 to $245,000.
More significant is the inventory situation: there are just 2 condos for sale in Swampscott.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
While it is important to understand that the median price reflects what is actually selling or available for sale, rather than the entire market, it is a reliable guide to activity as sellers (and real estate agents) price new listings based on comparable sales.
What is very clear is that there is an extreme shortage of both SFHs and condos for sale in Swampscott. And we all know what that means for prices.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott 2016 Housing Market by the Numbers
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $488,000, still well below the exceptional $517,300 of 2005. Sales dropped 14% as supply was sharply lower throughout the year.
The median price of a condo rose 4% to $255,000, 11% below the 2005 peak. Sales fell back from the levels of the prior two years. (more…)
Swampscott 2016 housing market: prices up, supply really low
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott increased by $28,000, or 6%, to $488,000, a sharp recovery from the Great Recession lows but still 6% below the exceptional peak of $517,300 in 2005 (read What happened in Swampscott in 2005?). Sales dropped back, largely in the second half of the year, but the big story was the continuing shrinking of the number of homes for sale, which averaged only half the level of 2014.
Median price*
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. But for 2005, 2016 would have represented a new high.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary
Through the Third Quarter, the median price of a Single Family House (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $485,000, while that for a condo rose 4% to $253,700. Both median prices remain well below their 2005 peaks.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports; peak in bold
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Mid-Year Review: median price up 10%
The main feature of the first half was a 10.5% increase in the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) to $491,500.
For the last year I have been highlighting the shortage of inventory in Swampscott, especially at the lower end. In my 2015 mid-year review I wrote: “Of the 47 SFHs for sale today just 7 are listed below $445,000, the median sales price for the first half of 2015. And only 11 are below $500,000.” And in my review of this year’s Q1 I added:”The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.”
Low inventory + low mortgage rates + buyers looking = higher prices.
The condo market has seen an extraordinary shrinkage in inventory, with only 10 condos currently for sale – and 4 of those are over $1 million.
A breakdown of current inventory is shown further on in this report. (more…)
Housing supply even tighter than a year ago
The supply of houses and condos for sale in North Shore towns, as well as throughout Essex County and Massachusetts, is down from last year’s levels – which were themselves low.
Housing markets are generally regarded as being in equilibrium between sellers and buyers when the supply of houses for sale is equal to the number that would be sold in 6 months. So a housing supply of 6 months represents equilibrium; more than 6 months means the supply is high enough to favor buyers; less than 6 months the lack of supply favors sellers – what is known as a sellers’ market.
The following tables show the numbers for 2016 in the left column and 2015 in the right one.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Overall supply in both Essex County and Massachusetts is less than 4 months and down from a year go. In individual towns, only Marblehead has a slight increase in supply, but the number remains below 6 months:
Condos
The condo market is even tighter with supply of less than 3 months in Essex County and Massachusetts, and all areas showing a decline from this time a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
This analysis shows the overall markets. There will be differences at differing price points, but because higher-priced houses usually take longer to sell, that means supply at the lower prices is even less than shown.
The housing market here may not be crazy, but clearly there is less supply than buyers would like.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott housing market still lacks supply
The data I maintain on home sales is useful but, since sales can take 2-3 months to complete from the date an offer is accepted, they do not provide as current a picture of the market as accepted offers. This article covers month by month this year the listing prices of houses in Swampscott where the seller has accepted an offer, together with the Days on Market (the number of days since the house was listed for sale) of the current inventory. Read my comments at the end of the post.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Note that just over half the accepted offers were on houses listed under $500,000.
Here is the month-by-month breakdown:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The pace of sales has been very steady, despite the lack of inventory.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
This is the current inventory by price and by Days on Market (DOM):
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
While the average DOM is 87, below $1 million that number drops to 40. Note also that with sales running at 4 per week, the current inventory represents just 2 months of supply – and even less under $1 million.
Comment
The median SFH sales price in 2016 in Swampscott was $460,000 and as of today there are just 2 houses for sale below that figure and only 5 in all under $500,000. Furthermore, the median list price of the 58 houses with accepted offers through April was $499,000.
Inventory in Swampscott is well below the level of recent years as shown here:
The law of supply and demand continues to point to a rising market in Swampscott. If you are thinking of selling, now would be an excellent time.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers
This report gives a picture of the Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago, a comparison which shows a huge drop.
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of both SFHs and condos were down slightly from last year, while the median price for both categories increased somewhat. Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Current Inventory
The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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