Housing Inventory heading into Fall: a surprise
I started to write this article intending to talk about the increase in supply we have seen in recent weeks and how the housing market was getting back into equilibrium between buyers and sellers, a situation achieved when supply reached 6 months. But a funny thing happened as I worked through the numbers. Take a look at this table: (more…)
Marblehead leads the way in Million Dollar sales in Essex County
I have reported in recent weeks that Million Dollar plus sales, including pending sales, will set a record in Marblehead this year, while in Swampscott such sales are lagging. This week I have looked at the whole of Essex County. (more…)
Marblehead 38 Swampscott 4
After my posts Marblehead Million Dollar Homes – Record Sales and Record Inventory and Marblehead’s Upper End – was 2013 the bottom? , I was asked to look at Swampscott. Here is my analysis. I have compared numbers with Marblehead.
And no, Swampscott did not record 2 safeties in the Thanksgiving football game. The headline refers to the numbers of sales and pending sales so far in 2014 of houses priced at $1 million and above. Here are the details, with numbers also for the full year in 2013: (more…)
Closing in on peak prices
The overall housing market is very close to peak levels, which generally occurred in 2005. For both Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole the median price in the first half of 2014 was just 3% below the 2005 peak. (more…)
Pending home sales reach record in May
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) issued a report this week Future Indicators showing that pending sales of single family homes (SF) in Massachusetts in May were the highest for any May since records started in 2004, while pending sales of condos were second only to those in May 2005.
After the brutal winter we endured, it is not surprising that buyers emerged with gusto when the weather finally broke.
I can imagine that one of the most frustrating things for a journalist must be seeing a headline for an article which conveys a misleading impression (in general journalists write the story while the headline is written by somebody else). Thus the headline on this article is, in part: Price and Market Confidence Index down.
On reading the article, the median price for SFHs increased in May by 7.4% in May while that for condos was up 8.6%. So to what does the headline apply?
“As more inventory starts to make its way to the market, REALTOR®-member confidence that prices will continue to go up isn’t as strong as it has been,” said Ruffini. “However, buyer demand is strong based on pending sales and hopefully that should start to push the REALTOR® Market Confidence Index up in the coming months.”
Note that this refers to those Realtors who responded to a survey. It does not say that those Realtors think prices are not going up; just that they are not as strongly convinced as they were at this time last year. Since Realtors in general are independent contractors working alone I always suspect that such surveys are more a reflection of that Realtor’s personal business pipeline than a considered, research- driven analysis of the economy and real estate trends.
We have seen a number of press headlines in recent months suggesting that prices are going up more slowly than they were a year or so ago. Suppose prices last year went up from $400,000 to $440,000. That’s a 10% increase. Now let’s assume they go up by $40,000 again this year. Because the denominator is now bigger ($440,000 rather than $400,000) the increase this year is “only” 9%. So the headline writer will say: “price increase slowing.”
A primary goal of my articles is to help buyers and sellers of real estate understand what is really happening. When you see articles about real estate, go past the headline and read the actual reports. And then use common sense. And then you will know “the rest of the story.” And you can always ask me!
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing inventory: spring is coming, right?
Two years ago the month of February saw just one day when the temperature was below freezing. This year….well you know what’s it been like, hibernation for most of the month. Statistics for sales at this time of year are, therefore, largely meaningless.
Instead, I have been looking at the supply of houses and condos for sale and comparing numbers with a year ago, which was also a cold month if not quite as brutal as this year.
We are assured that it will warm up one day, if not soon. With signs that the economy continues to improve, if slowly, it seems quite likely that spring, if and when it comes, will find buyers chasing limited inventory, again, and that prices, certainly at the lower end, will continue the improvement of 2013.
Here is the inventory by price for Marblehead, Beverly, Salem, Swamspcott and Essex County overall. (more…)
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