Mortgage Rates: another Head Fake or Early Warning?
Back in June I wrote Mortgage rate head fake, when mortgage rates jumped but only very briefly.
On Wednesday this week I wrote: “In normal times, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is priced based upon the extra yield investors require over and above that which can be received on the US 10-year Treasury Note (10T). In recent years that extra yield – spread – has averaged 1.7%.
2020, as you may have noticed, has not been normal. In the peak of the disruption to mortgage markets in April the spread reached 2.7%, as the yield on 10T was driven sharply lower, dropping from 1.8% at the beginning of the year to as low as 0.55%.
But recently, the yield has been climbing and now approaches 1%. And the spread over 10T has been under 2% for the last three weeks.”
Here is a chart of the spread in recent years and by quarter in 2020: (more…)
New Listings week ending November 13
The election, new COVID-19 restrictions and the upcoming holidays combined to produce just a small number of New Listings this week. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
Open Houses weekend November 14/15
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)
Are Mortgage Rates about to rise?
In normal times, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is priced based upon the extra yield investors require over and above that which can be received on the US 10-year Treasury Note (10T). In recent years that extra yield – spread – has averaged 1.7%.
2020, as you may have noticed, has not been normal. In the peak of the disruption to mortgage markets in April the spread reached 2.7%, as the yield on 10T was driven sharply lower, dropping from 1.8% at the beginning of the year to as low as 0.55%.
But recently, the yield has been climbing and now approaches 1%. And the spread over 10T has been under 2% for the last three weeks. (more…)
New Listings mid-week November 11
These are the latest New Listings, slowed by new COVID-19 restrictions and the calendar: (more…)
Market still active while inventory remains low
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County receiving offers recovered strongly from May onwards, and for the last several months has been ahead of 2019. YTD numbers are now slightly ahead of 2019 levels. The numbers would have been even stronger in recent months but for the chronic shortage of supply.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, and has accelerated in 2020:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2018. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month since July 2019 (note the decline both from 2018 to 2019 and again, much sharper, from 2019 to 2020).
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline which has accelerated somewhat in 2020:
These two charts show numbers since 2018 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory has been declining since October 2019, with the rate of decline accelerating in 2020..
Supply
While the overall inventory of 1 month of supply remains well below the 6 months traditionally regarded as representing a market in equilibrium. While supply as usual becomes freer the higher the price bracket, it is notable that it does not exceed the traditional gauge of a market in equilibrium – 6 months of supply – until prices reach $2 million.
Comment
The market in recent months has been characterised by the twin challenges of reduced inventory and increased demand, with buyers from Boston adding to local demand; and both aided by record low mortgage rates.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. In housing, that often results in bidding wars, as we are seeing frequently now.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics: Q3 GDP growth
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Open Houses Sunday November 8
Here are today’s Open Houses (as always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday) (more…)
8 Habits for a Clean Home
From Vibrant Living:
1. Make the bed right away, every day
2. Move appliances off the kitchen counter
3. Wipe down the bathroom sink before bed
4. Run the dishwasher each night
5. Have a dedicate spot for mail
6. Tidy up before bed each night
7. Clean up as you cook
8. Do a deep cleaning chore once a week
Well, that sounds easy. I’ll start…. tomorrow.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
“Some people use stats the way a drunk uses a lamppost: for support rather than for illumination”
Winter Parking ban suspended in Marblehead
“The Board of Selectmen voted on October 28, 2020 to suspend Town of Marblehead Bylaw Article 5 Section 8 known as the current “all night parking ban” and to implement in its place a snow emergency response to snow events on an ‘as needed’ basis for a trial period of one year.
Declared snow emergencies will prohibit on-street parking starting at midnight the day of the anticipated snow storm. On-street parking will be allowed the following morning starting at 7am during a declared snow emergency unless conditions do not allow it. If the duration of any snow emergency is more than a day, on-street parking will be prohibited on each day of the snow emergency from midnight to 7am.
Many factors will be considered before the Town declares a snow emergency including air and road temperatures, weather forecasts and snow accumulation. The Town will declare a snow emergency when snowfall accumulation is forecasted to be 2 inches or over but other factors could contribute to the declaration of a snow emergency even if snow accumulation is expected to be less than 2 inches. The Town will endeavor to provide as much notice as possible to residents when a snow emergency is declared.
Any vehicles that violate these provisions will be subject to the issuance of parking tickets and towing. Parking ticketing and towing will be done in a matter of priority and will be done to all vehicles parked on-street during a snow emergency.
If towed, vehicles will be stored at the transfer station.
Notification of a declared snow emergency during this trial period shall be done through the Town website, CodeRED automated call system, Town-managed social media accounts, MHTV, and any other outlets the Town has available.
This trial period is revocable upon the determination of the Police Chief, Fire Chief, Town Administrator, Department of Public Works, or their designees, that it is negatively impacting public health and safety.”
Read Snow Emergency Fact Sheet for full details.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
“Some people use stats the way a drunk uses a lamppost: for support rather than for illumination”
New Listings week ending November 6
The election, new COVID-19 restrictions and the holidays combined to produce just a small number of New Listings this week. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
Open Houses weekend November7/8
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)
New Listings mid-week November 4
These are the latest New Listings. (more…)
Open Houses Sunday November 1
If you were tricked yesterday, you deserve a treat today, so go to these Open Houses (as always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday): (more…)
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