Is it time to consider an Adjustable Rate Mortgage?
I have a confession to make: I have never used a 30 year fixed rate mortgage in 20 years of owning homes in the US. And my jumbo mortgage, which is based on 1 year LIBOR, has just reset to 3% and would be at the same rate today as the 1 year LIBOR rate has not moved over the last month.
Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) got a bad reputation because of the shenanigans of unscrupulous lenders and brokers in the boom/bubble. And I strongly believe that these people – starting at the top – should be incarcerated and the key thrown away. On an, of course, completely unrelated topic read this article alleging that Bank of America encouraged their employees to lie to home owners.
Conventional ARMs, however, for those who understand them, are a perfectly feasible financing option. Bear in mind that the average time that a mortgage is held before the house is sold or the loan refinanced is believed to be about 7 years.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the average rate, nationally, on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage this week was 4.46%, while that on a 5/1 ARM (meaning that the rate is fixed for 5 years and then resets each year thereafter) was 3.08%.
Now I want to make this simple, so use these numbers as a rough basis on which to work.
Over 5 years, paying 4.46% p.a. makes cumulative payments of 22.3%. At 3.08% the total is 15.4%. So there is a “saving” of 6.9%. Now ARMs adjust based on a certain index but generally cannot increase by more than 2% each year. Let’s assume that the rate goes up the maximum 2% in each of years 6 and 7. The chart below shows the cumulative interest paid:
Source: Freddie Mac; Oliver Reports
What this means is that even if the rate in years 6 and 7 increased by the maximum each year, interest paid over the average 7 year mortgage life would still be significantly less on an ARM than on a 30 year fixed,.
Again, this is very simplistic, not taking into account matters like principal reduction and tax deduction, but it’s the way I start my analysis. And it’s the reason I have never taken a 30 year fixed loan.
You are the only person who knows your life plan and risk tolerance, but an ARM may be an option you want to discuss with your financial advisor.
Putting the recent mortgage rate increase into perspective
One week the headlines are shouting that the recent recovery in home prices is creating the possibility of a new bubble; the next that the spike in mortgage rates is going to kill the recovery in prices and sales.
So perhaps a little perspective is called for.
If you first thought of buying a house when the 30 year rate was 3.5% and you find it is now 4.5% then that is a sharp jump. But many of us have owned houses for much longer. This chart, from Freddie Mac, confirms that mortgage rates are still at historically low levels. What you will note is that mortgage rates were much higher when home prices wee soaring. Mortgage rates are but one factor in the home buying decision.
Source: Freddie Mac; Oliver Reports
No Virginia, this it NOT a housing bubble
There is a saying in the stock market, wherein I spent some 35 years of my earlier life, that the market climbs a wall of worry, meaning that the market climbs even as many commentators express concern about various economic or political risks.
This week S&P published a report entitled: US Home Prices Suddenly Surge, But Talk Of A Bubble May Be Premature read report .
Wikipedia defines an economic bubble as: “trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.”
OK so before we get carried away here, let’s remind ourselves that nationally housing prices remain 28% below their peak (which WAS a bubble) and that affordability is close to all-time highs. As I have pointed out before, a market that goes down 40% and then “surges” 15% is still down 31%. Not exactly a bubble. (more…)
$560,000 for 2 Boston parking spaces. Really? What would $560,000 buy in Marblehead?
Two parking spaces – not garages, just spaces – on Commonwealth Avenue in Boston sold this week for $560,000, which had me considering what one could buy for that money in Marblehead.
As it happens one house has just sold for exactly $560,000. Like the Boston sale this one had two parking spaces. Unlike the Boston sale this one also had a 2,600 sq.ft. 4 bedroom Single Family Home.
Hm.
Marblehead has beautiful water in the harbor and ocean; and beautiful drinking water in its taps
Marblehead’s water comes from two reservoirs, Quabbin and Wachusett, and is supplied by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) which released its 2012 survey this week.
Over the last 20 years the lead in MWRA’s water, as measured by parts per billion, has dropped from 60 to just 8.
And in Marblehead that number is even lower, just 4 ppb.
Marblehead: water, water everywhere and lots and lots to drink (with apologies to Coleridge).
How long will it take to sell MY home?
My posts yesterday showed the supply of homes for sale in terms of months of current supply. That’s one useful piece of information.
But if you are thinking of selling, or have a house currently on the market, the question you want to ask is: How long will it take to sell MY home?”
First, let’s look at those Single Family Homes (SFHs) that are currently Under Agreement (UAG), meaning they have an accepted offer. Here’s the breakdown by Days on Market (DOM) and by price: (more…)
Housing supply varies greatly by price
When I presented the inventory data to the Harborside office meeting on Tuesday, I was asked how it varied at different selling prices.
The answer is “greatly”, with the market under $500,000 clearly a sellers’ market, while at the upper end supply is plentiful.
Here are the numbers for the North Shore overall. I can provide the numbers for any specific city or town – including those not in my composite – on request. (more…)
North Shore housing inventory gently rising
Spring and early summer see the greatest number of both listings and sales and the supply numbers at the beginning of June are a pretty good indicator of the current market.
The quick summary is that supply is gently rising, but not enough to change the balance of power which remains firmly with sellers, although as my next post shows this does vary according to the price bracket. (more…)
$80,000 reduction: waterfront Colonial with dock on nearly an acre
Wow! Come and see this beautiful home at 36 Crestwood Road, Marblehead (West Shore Drive to Shorewood Road to Pinecliff Drive to Crestwood Road), reduced to $1,295,000. Open House Sunday 12-2.
“This looks like a model home”, was one comment I heard. “What a beautiful re-do” was another. (more…)
Massachusetts median Single Family Home price up 10.5% in April
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released its April report this week.
Other highlights:
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFHs) eased 1% from a year ago, the third straight month of slight year over Year (YOY)declines, caused by the shortage of homes available for sale.
But… April saw a big jump in new listings (it’s called Spring) which, according to MAR, should help the market move closer to being balanced.
Days on Market (DOM)for SFHs was 110 in April 2013, down from 126 a year ago.
Inventory at the end of April was down 27% YOY and represented 5.6 months of supply, vs 9 months a year ago and up from 5.3 months in March.
Read report
Marblehead Waterfront Colonial with Dock and almost an acre: Open House Sunday
Come see this wonderful Colonial on Sunday 12:00 – 2:00 pm. (more…)
Marblehead Oceanfront 2 House Compound Open House Sunday
11 Crown Way, Marblehead. Sunday 12:00-1:30
Two houses on one lot make this ideal for extended family, nursing home alternative or just for a weekend and summer retreat without having to battle the traffic.
This spectacular oceanfront compound offers an elegantly restored, south-facing, sun-drenched 6,265 sq. ft. main home with 15 spacious rooms including 7 bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths.
Plus Marblehead’s most stunningly located carriage house with an additional 2,404 sq. ft. of living space.
Property is uniquely protected from coastal storms.
Access to a private beach. Wonderful neighborhood; private mooring available. $4.5 million.
www.11CrownWay.com
All-time one-day record for homes Under Agreement throughout Massachusetts
Tuesday, May 21st, 2013 saw an all-time record for the number of homes going Under AGreement (UAG). In Marblehead alone the number almost doubled to 69 and the same pattern was duplicated throughout the State.
Does this mean that we should be wondering if Massachusetts is entering a housing bubble, as some were concerned in Los Angeles earlier this year? What is going on? (more…)
Record visits to OliverReports.com this weekend
Maybe it was the subject matter – the upper end of the market – but whatever the reason my blog had a record number of visits this weekend.
If you stumbled on my site by chance, please either “friend” Oliver Reports on Facebook or sign up at www.OliverReports.com for email alerts of new postings.
I publish one or more articles every Saturday on a variety of real estate related topics. My goal is to make the articles short and topical.
As my home page says, Oliver Reports is: “The source for Marblehead and North Shore real estate news.”
And I also publish comments on the Boston market from time to time because of the influence that market has on the entire region.
Open House waterfront home with dock and nearly an acre in park-like setting
Come see this wonderful Colonial on Sunday 12:00 – 2:00 pm.
36 Crestwood Road (West Shore Drive to Shorewood Road to Pinecliff Drive to Crestwood).
Details:
Waterfront, updated, 4 bedroom 3,820 s.f. Colonial on nearly an acre in park-like setting with private dock. Home overlooks Wyman’s Cove and has views to the Beverly shore. Master suite has views up the harbor and beyond. Hardwood floors, central air, finished walkout lower level, & two car garage. Radiant heat in bathroom floors.
www.36CrestwoodRoad.com with interactive floor plans.
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