Marblehead and North Shore home sales in April
In April the number of Single Family Homes (SFHs) sold in Marblehead was 23 against 17 last year, bring the Year To Date number to 54 compared with 44 last year,
As of May 1 there were 58 SFHs with an accepted offer. Were all these to close by June 30 – which they won’t, but others not yet with an accepted offer will – total sales for the first half of the year would be around 110.
Last year’s sales reached 229, the highest total since the extraordinary 285 of 2004. We are unlikely to challenge the 2004 level but we do seem to be moving back into the 220-240 range of the early 2000s.
Condo sales so far are 6 against 7. A further 8 had accepted offers as of May 1. At this stage it seems quite likely that sales will not match last year’s 42.
For the 17 North Shore cities and towns I track, sales of SFHs increased 6% for the first four months of the year while condo sales were up 12%.
North Shore Housing Inventory remains low in May
Using the same data as in previous months, the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFHs) remained pretty steady at 4.6 months supply as of May 1, compared with 4.5 months at April 1. For condos, supply increased from 5.0 months to 5.5 months.
April sees a flood of new properties coming to market for the peak spring selling season so an increase in supply is normal. In actual numbers, there wee 725 SFHs available (that is without an accepted offer) compared with 623 a month earlier, while there were 346 available condos, up from 292 a month earlier.
These numbers make the point that while the absorption rate remains high, there are now more properties available for sale, as one would expect at this time of year.
I am not publishing the tables I have shown in recent months because I have decided to change my methodology. I have been using the Last 3 Months for calculating absorption rates and hence how many months of supply is represented by the available properties. The problem with that is that is that it makes no allowance for seasonality. For example, April’s number of homes for sale – the start of spring selling – was compared with actual sales in January- March, the slowest quarter of the year.
For this month I am using the Last 12 Months believing that this will smooth out some of the seasonality. It’s not perfect, but then neither is the weather in New England and that’s the real cause of the seasonality.
Using L12M, the inventory for SFHs drops to just 3.6 months, with Peabody under 2, and several under 3. Here is the table:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Similarly, condo supply drops to 4.4 months, with Salem, the largest condo market, being one of the tightest. Here’s the condo table:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The equation is unchanged: low inventory + low mortgage rates = higher prices.
Open House Sunday for Waterfront, updated 3820 sq.ft. Colonial with private dock in park-like setting of nearly an acre
36 Crestwood Road $1,375,000
West Shore Drive to Shorewood Road to Pinecliff Drive to Crestwood Road
Open House tomorrow, April 28, 12:30 to 2:30.
Click here for full details
Marblehead First Quarter Report
The first quarter is usually the slowest of the year for sales and that pattern continued in 2013. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. As the quarter went on, activity accelerated as I have reported in several posts.
Sales were 31 vs 27 (29 vs 24 excluding distressed sales), and the median price $497,000, up 6% from last year’s depressed level, caused by the high percentage of sales under $500,000.
The most significant statistic from Q1 is the Assessed to Sale Ratio, which compares Assessed Values to Sales Prices. When sales take place above AV, the ASR is below 100%. So the lower the number the better the market! In my year rend review Read Review I pointed out that the ASR had declined during the year for SFH sales under $500,000.
Look now at the data for Q1.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
We have seen quite a sharp drop in the ASR in all price ranges. Bear in mind this data refers to just 29 sales that closed in Q1, which means sales agreed late last year into early this.
At the end of March there were a further 46 houses with an accepted offer and these, which will be in Q2 numbers, will reflect the stronger market seen in recent weeks.
Déjà vu all over again
Here is a comment from a new listing in Marblehead this week:
First showings @ open house 4/6,7. Offers held until 4/7 5pm.
In recent weeks houses have come on the market and offers have been accepted before the first public open house. Holding offers until the end of the open house allows the seller time to receive more offers. It also encourages buyers to make their best offer, which may well be above the asking price.
Did somebody say 2004?
North Shore Housing Inventory at the beginning of April
The first quarter on the North Shore is the time of the lowest sales and also the lowest number of houses for sale. Thus, the statistics as of April 1, give only a modest indication of what the spring market will be like.
As to that, I will comment in my next post.
Here are the numbers for SFHs for 17 North Shore Cities and Towns: (more…)
Moving up the food chain
The spring market continues to build momentum, as activity is moving up the price brackets.
Let’s look at the sequence of events:
– A February snowy Sunday with the temperature below freezing. 30 people showed up at an Open House for a property listed in the low $400s and multiple offers were received.
– In March another house priced in the low $400s never reached the open market as four offers were received above the asking price.
– Last week a house priced at $600,000 sold in one day.
– Four houses listed in March between $725,000 and $875,000 had offers accepted in 5-20 days.
– This week one house listed in the low $900s and one in the $1,500s had offers accepted in less than a week.
And in the last ten days two condos listed at $389,000 and $425,000 had offers accepted in 1 and 2 days.
Here’s a list of what is available by price. The last column shows the median Days on Market (how long it has been listed for sale) for those properties still available. (more…)
Listed for $550,000; sold for $630,000
The above example appeared in a Wednesday Boston Globe article Boston-area house hunters face bidding battles.
– The sale referred to above took place in Cambridge.
– In Jamaica Plain a buyer bid 12% above a condo’s asking price.
– Redfin.com reported that 89% of Cambridge deals this year involved multiple bids.
– A friend who owns a multi family in Boston’s South End has received three unsolicited offers in the last month, and I have reported earlier about the chronic shortage of condos for sale in Boston.
The market on the North Shore tends to lag behind Boston, but there are already signs that buyers here are feeling the pressure of increased competition for the small number of properties available for sale. I have reported before on multiple bid situations over the asking price in the last few weeks. (more…)
Small Business Owner: buy with only 10% down
PRIME OFFICE/RETAIL SPACE AT FIVE CORNERS
257 Washington Street – next to 5 Corners Kitchen!
Less expensive than leasing!
Details:
714 sq.ft. Office/Retail Condo with private bathroom
Attractive entrance: brick pathway and vestibule
Very light, lots of windows and character
Condo fee $87.50 per month
Price: $187,500
Click here for more details
Mike Cannuscio, Managing Partner
781.838.0068
Mike@HarborsideRealty.com
How much will home prices increase in the next decade?
According to a Bloomberg report, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) more than doubled its forecast for U.S. home price gains in 2013 to 7 percent this week, and predicts a more than 14 percent increase through 2015. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) said last week property values will jump 8 percent this year, up from a prior estimate of 4.7 percent in a report titled “Someone say house party?”
I have previously written that I expect any surprise in 2013 to be on the upside. I also reported a recent open house in Marblehead on a snowy and blustery day when 30 people showed up and multiple offers were received. Then last week before a new property came on the open market it received several offers above the asking price.
(more…)
What every oceanfront property buyer should do NOW
Some oceanfront houses get battered by storms time and time again, while others remain unscathed.
What is the difference?
Largely, it is a question of the direction the house faces and the protection – or lack of it – from the elements, mainly water and wind.
If you are looking for an oceanfront property, what you should do this weekend is get in your car and drive around the areas in which you are interested. And take a compass with you (I find the compass on my iPhone unreliable).
(more…)
Is this why the housing market is heating up?
The stock market hit an all-time high this week, unemployment dropped to 7.7%, and the Federal Reserve reported that Americans have regained the $16 trillion in wealth lost during the Great Recession.
In contrast, home prices nationally remain, depending on the index, up to 30% below peak levels, while mortgage rates are at all-time lows.
Plus, as I reported last week, home ownership between 2004 and 0212 declined by 3.6% or some 4 million households.
Add to that an historically low level of houses for sale, and what do you get?
In classical economic theory, the relation between supply and demand determines the price of a commodity. As demand for an item increases, prices rise. When manufacturers respond to the price increase by producing a larger supply of that item, this increases competition and drives the price down
Demand is up and increasing
Supply is at historic lows
New housing starts remain well below “normal” levels and can’t be increased quickly
Based on the above, where do you think prices are headed in 2013?
Associated Press; March 7, 2013
WASHINGTON — It took five years, but surging stock prices and steady home-price increases have finally allowed Americans to regain the $16 trillion in wealth they lost to the Great Recession.
(more…)
The most important website for first time and Veteran homebuyers
For many first time home buyers the process can seem intimidating, but information available on the internet can help the buyer become well informed and able to be in control of the process.
This website North Shore Home Programs provides a remarkable amount of information, ranging from a step-by-step guide to home buying, to a list of programs available to help with down payments.
The greatest gift of the internet is the way it empowers the consumer through knowledge. Spending a little time on this website, and then googling “first time home buyer”, will go a long way to giving power to you, the buyer.
Knowledge helps to remove intimidation from the process of buying your first home.
“Local housing market, packed with eager buyers, is desperately seeking home sellers”
If you have been reading my articles in the last couple of months it will come as no surprise to read today’s front page article in the Boston Globe about the severe shortage of homes for sale. While this article is written about Boston it applies just as much to our North Shore communities.
The message is clear: if you have been waiting to sell, wait no longer! And if you have been thinking of buying or trading up, wait no longer! (more…)
Is it time to trade up?
Last Sunday, as you may recall, was a cold, snowy, stormy day. Harborside had a new listing and planned an open house, but the broker wondered whether anybody would venture out in the snow. Should he cancel the open house? He decided to go ahead and see if anybody would show up.
Um. Some 30 people “showed up” and the result was multiple offers for the property. (more…)
Recent Comments