Why numbers do matter – but so does a good agent

In my new career as a Realtor I recently attended a class on using the data in the MLS (Multiple Listing Service). Two comments struck me. The first came from an agent of more than 20 years’ experience who said:  “I know my market; I don’t need data to tell me what a house is worth.”

The second came when the agents present were asked what they had been taught to say in response to the question: “how’s the market?” I was almost deafened as those present (this was a continuing education class) shouted out words like “great” and “terrific”. To which the instructor wryly commented that that was how Realtors got a bad name. (more…)

Where have all the sellers gone?

Buyers are out there, but sales are being held back because of a shortage of supply. If you are thinking of selling you don’t have to wait until the traditional spring market.

Conventional wisdom is that a market is in balance when the inventory represents about 6 months of sales.Currently, for the North Shore as a whole, supply is just 3.2 months for SFHs and 3.7 months for condos. What does this mean? (more…)

Marblehead 2012 housing review and 2013 outlook

People often ask: how’s the market? Well, there rarely is one “market”. The answer can vary by price (the under $500,000 market may be active while another price range is less so) and location (quiet wooded cul-de-sac versus busy main road).

This review of 2012 SFHs will follow my usual pattern of breaking down 2012 sales by price range, as well as looking forward to 2013.

And as so often, detailed analysis of the data reveals some surprising conclusions. Let’s get started. (more…)

Marblehead condo market 2012 review: apples and oranges

Any claim that “the condo market” in Marblehead is doing this or that should be treated with caution.

As I have commented many times, there are two main condo markets in Marblehead: purpose built condos like Glover Landing, Adams House, Oliver’s Pond, Marblehead Highlands, etc; and old 2/3 family houses that were ‘condo-ed” in the boom years.

The former category has seen prices hold up well, while the latter has suffered. And the overall market is so small that very often there are large price gaps between sales, making median prices even less meaningful.

Nevertheless, by digging deep into the numbers I can explain what is actually happening in the market, and it’s not what the headline number suggests.

So let’s get to the numbers. (more…)

How many million dollar homes sold in Marblehead last year?

The answer is 26, up from 24 in 2011. The highest price MLS sale was $4.1 million. At the start of 2013 a house listed at $4.75 million went under agreement.
If the past is any guide, then 2013 should see increased demand at the top end.
Here are the numbers:

MHD_SFH_$1 million_plus_2009_12

Mortgage Rates forecast to rise 1% by end of 2013

In my November 27 article Refinancing – don’t make just the minimum payment I wrote: “Don’t assume that rates will either go lower still or that they will necessarily stay this low for as long as the Federal Reserve is currently saying. If the economy does strengthen from here, interest rates my move up sooner than expected.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association has just issued a forecast that mortgage rates will increase gradually as the economy improves and finish around 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
MBA_December_Commentary_82991

More reason to consider buying NOW!

Another way to show the breakdown of Marblehead Single Family sales in 2012

Here’s another way to look at SFH sales in 2012:

First, by percentage. Note that the % of sales above $750k went up from 2011 to 2012, but that below $750k there was a marked shift from the $500-749k range to below $499k. (more…)

Big Papi strikes Marblehead housing market again

My 2009 mid-year review published in the Marblehead Reporter described the phenomenon that the local real estate market was like David Ortiz’s season: starting so poorly that even with great numbers later in the season the year’s median price would still be quite low.
Well 2012 was much like 2009, at least for the local real estate market (Big Papi himself, courtesy of a new diet and/or because he was entering a contract year, hit 318). (more…)

2013 starts with very low housing inventory

After a stronger sales year in 2012 on the North Shore – sales were up 18% for SFHs and 23% for condos -2013 starts with very low levels of inventory, echoing a trend being seen across the country.

Nationally, the latest figures for November show supply at 4.5 months of average sales.

Locally, the market appears even tighter, with just 3 months of supply of SFHs and 3.7 months for condos at the beginning of the year.
2012_Year_End_Stats_North_Shore_SFH
2012_Year_End_Stats_North_Shore_Condos

(more…)

North Shore Single Family Sales Up 18% in 2012

Sales of SFHS in the 17 cities and towns on the North Shore jumped 18% in 2012, reaching their highest level since 2005. All but Swampscott showed an increase over 2011. While Lynn remained the largest city for sales, its share of the overall North Shore market dropped from 23% in 2005 to 16% in 2012.
Sales remain 17% below peak levels of 2004, with Lynn, Ipswich, Georgetown and Swampscott all showing declines of more than 30%. At the other end, Lynnfield had a 26% increase, and Manchester,Peabody and Topsfield also showed gains. (more…)

Marblehead SFH and condo sales 2012

SFH sales in MHD in 2012 reached 229, the highest level since 2004, which was an exceptional year.
MHD_SFH_Sales_Moving_Average

Condo sales remain well below the levels of earlier in the century for the reasons outlined in my December 8 post:
Condo_Sales_Moving_Ave

Twenty Questions with Marblehead’s Assessor

The FY2013 tax rate has been set at $10.85, up from $10.52 in FY2012. The median single family assessment declined 2.4% to $476,000, and the median single family tax bill increased 0.6%, or $31, to $5,165. The commercial rate has once again been set at the same rate as the residential rate.

Marblehead’s 2013 tax rate will be the third lowest of the 17 North Shore cities and towns and also the third lowest of 34 Essex County communities.

Real-estate assessments for Fiscal Year 2013 have just been mailed. Assistant Assessor Mike Tumulty answered questions about the process. (more…)

Property Tax Rates for 2013 in Marblehead and the North Shore

Often lost in the shuffle in the hecticness of the holiday season is the announcement of the new property tax rate, which actually becomes effective from July 1, 2012. What this means is that most of us have been paying less than we owe during the first half of the year, which is why our bills will go up for the second half of the year. (more…)

Condo sales: bumping along the bottom?

Unlike the SFH market, sales of condos remain well below the levels of the early years of this century, as the following table shows:


©Oliver Reports
(more…)

SFH sales on track for best year since 2005

November saw 14 sales of SFHs, taking the YTD total to 211. This makes 2012 already the largest sales year since 2005. The moving average in the chart clearly shows the recovery to more normal sales levels. (more…)