Swampscott Q1 2017 Housing Market Report: inventory shortage
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) dropped in Q1 while prices rose sharply. Caution is needed because of the low volume of sales, but the chart below the table, showing sales YTD, pending sales and current inventory, clearly suggests that the median price is going to remain above $500,000 and threaten, at last, to break the 2005 peak of $517,300.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median price
YTD the median price of sales is $524,000; the median list price of pending sales and homes available for sale are both well in excess of $550,000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
In markets such as Swampscott with a small number of condo sales I do not report in depth on Q1 numbers, which saw sales increase from 9 to 14 while the median price declined from $268,050 to $245,000.
More significant is the inventory situation: there are just 2 condos for sale in Swampscott.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
While it is important to understand that the median price reflects what is actually selling or available for sale, rather than the entire market, it is a reliable guide to activity as sellers (and real estate agents) price new listings based on comparable sales.
What is very clear is that there is an extreme shortage of both SFHs and condos for sale in Swampscott. And we all know what that means for prices.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott 2016 Housing Market by the Numbers
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $488,000, still well below the exceptional $517,300 of 2005. Sales dropped 14% as supply was sharply lower throughout the year.
The median price of a condo rose 4% to $255,000, 11% below the 2005 peak. Sales fell back from the levels of the prior two years. (more…)
Swampscott 2016 housing market: prices up, supply really low
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott increased by $28,000, or 6%, to $488,000, a sharp recovery from the Great Recession lows but still 6% below the exceptional peak of $517,300 in 2005 (read What happened in Swampscott in 2005?). Sales dropped back, largely in the second half of the year, but the big story was the continuing shrinking of the number of homes for sale, which averaged only half the level of 2014.
Median price*
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. But for 2005, 2016 would have represented a new high.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Huge jump in Mortgage Loan Limits
Home buyers in Essex County and Suffolk County received a major boost this week with the announcement that the limit for conforming mortgages was being increased by 18% from $523,250 to $598,000.
For a buyer putting down 20% the price of a home that can be financed conventionally – meaning that it can be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac – jumps by almost $100,000, from $654,063 to $747,500.
This table shows the trend in the last few years: (more…)
Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary
Through the Third Quarter, the median price of a Single Family House (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $485,000, while that for a condo rose 4% to $253,700. Both median prices remain well below their 2005 peaks.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports; peak in bold
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q3 report: prices up, inventory well down
For the first 9 months of 2015 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott increased 6% to $485,000. This is the highest figure since the exceptional $507,000 in the first 9 months of 2005. While sales held up quite well in the first half of the year the acute shortage of inventory started to make an impact on sales in Q3. The last table in this report graphically illustrated the decline in the number of houses for sale in the last two years.
In this report I will look at the Q3 numbers, the YTD numbers and also give a preview of where I think the year will end up.
Q3 median price
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott Mid-Year Review: median price up 10%
The main feature of the first half was a 10.5% increase in the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) to $491,500.
For the last year I have been highlighting the shortage of inventory in Swampscott, especially at the lower end. In my 2015 mid-year review I wrote: “Of the 47 SFHs for sale today just 7 are listed below $445,000, the median sales price for the first half of 2015. And only 11 are below $500,000.” And in my review of this year’s Q1 I added:”The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.”
Low inventory + low mortgage rates + buyers looking = higher prices.
The condo market has seen an extraordinary shrinkage in inventory, with only 10 condos currently for sale – and 4 of those are over $1 million.
A breakdown of current inventory is shown further on in this report. (more…)
What’s the current supply of houses for sale locally?
This report sets out to analyze the current supply of houses for sale in Marblehead, Swampscott and Salem.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
First, let’s look at sales so far this year to May 20. The pace of sales is slower in winter so these numbers overstate the supply. Bear in mind that a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
Next I looked at recent activity, namely the number of SFHs which had offers accepted since the beginning of April and compared that with current supply. April, May and June are generally the three largest months for accepted offers in these markets, so these numbers may slightly understate supply going forward, but they provide a stark indication of how little supply there is today, especially in Swampscott and Salem:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
While sales numbers for SFHs are similar for the three towns, they are very different for condos, where only Salem has a large market. Thus the supply number for Salem is more significant than for the other towns:
Turning to accepted offers since the beginning of April, the supply drops sharply in all markets. Note that in Salem there have been 47 accepted offers so far in May alone and there are just 61 for sale.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
This report quantifies just how short of supply the market is, especially in Swampscott and Salem. And bear in mind that these numbers are for the total market; at lower prices there is even less supply, as higher priced properties generally take longer to sell.
The supply numbers are somewhat better in Marblehead where there is some evidence that list prices of SFHs have increased this year, possibly in advance of the market.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott housing market still lacks supply
The data I maintain on home sales is useful but, since sales can take 2-3 months to complete from the date an offer is accepted, they do not provide as current a picture of the market as accepted offers. This article covers month by month this year the listing prices of houses in Swampscott where the seller has accepted an offer, together with the Days on Market (the number of days since the house was listed for sale) of the current inventory. Read my comments at the end of the post.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Note that just over half the accepted offers were on houses listed under $500,000.
Here is the month-by-month breakdown:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The pace of sales has been very steady, despite the lack of inventory.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
This is the current inventory by price and by Days on Market (DOM):
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
While the average DOM is 87, below $1 million that number drops to 40. Note also that with sales running at 4 per week, the current inventory represents just 2 months of supply – and even less under $1 million.
Comment
The median SFH sales price in 2016 in Swampscott was $460,000 and as of today there are just 2 houses for sale below that figure and only 5 in all under $500,000. Furthermore, the median list price of the 58 houses with accepted offers through April was $499,000.
Inventory in Swampscott is well below the level of recent years as shown here:
The law of supply and demand continues to point to a rising market in Swampscott. If you are thinking of selling, now would be an excellent time.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing Inventory today, by price and town, versus a year ago
This article compares today’s inventory, by price, compared with that of a year ago.We are now past the vagaries of winter weather and the dates of Easter and Passover, thus making the comparisons like for like for probably the first time this year. I will look first at Essex County and Massachusetts for the big picture, followed by Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn, adding comments where appropriate.
Overall, the story is of a decline in inventory at lower price levels and an increase at higher price points, a trend consistent with a rising market.
Massachusetts and Essex County
Overall inventory is down in the entire State by 9% for SFHs and 6% for condos; in Essex County the decline is 10% for SFHs and 12% for condos. But…. there is a marked difference between supply under $500,000 and above that figure, with large declines in supply below $500,000 and increases above that figure, particularly at the top end.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Marblehead
While Marblehead is one of the few towns to show an increase in inventory over 2015, it still shows a sharp drop from the 92 and 100 SFHs for sales on this date in 2013 and 2014, while condo inventory is more in line with numbers from those years. The increase in SFH inventory is concentrated in the $750,000 – $999,999 and over $2 million brackets for SFHs and, rather surprisingly, in condos under $250,000.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott
The story in Swampscott continues to be the incredibly low level of supply, most markedly for SFHs below $500,000, where the number available has collapsed from 25 to just 3. And there are just 5 condos for sale in the entire town.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Salem
While overall supply in Salem is down just slightly from last year, here again we see declines in inventory at the lower price levels:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Beverly
The total number of SFHs for sale is much the same as last year but the mix has changed, with a huge drop under $400,000 and increases in most of the higher ranges. Condos for sale under $250,000 plunged from 16 to just 4.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Lynn
The decline is most pronounced in SFHs under $300,000 where supply has more than halved from 48 to 23.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers
This report gives a picture of the Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago, a comparison which shows a huge drop.
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of both SFHs and condos were down slightly from last year, while the median price for both categories increased somewhat. Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Current Inventory
The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected] for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Where have all the sellers gone?
I am sure I am not alone in expecting that housing inventory would be higher this (early) spring, given the mild winter and continuing low interest rates,but that has not happened. In this post I look at inventory for both Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos for local towns, Essex County and Massachusetts.
Marblehead, Swampscott, Beverly and Salem
None of these markets has higher inventory than last year – the big snow year, remember? All are sharply down from 2013 and 2014.
Similar story for condos – look at the drop in Salem.
MLS, Oliver Reports
Essex County and Massachusetts
These don’t show well in a chart so here are the numbers, which show a similar, but less pronounced pattern.
Changes in inventory since 2013
The last two charts show the percentage decline in inventory since 2013.
MLS, Oliver Reports
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should list my house for sale?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
Swampscott 2015 Housing Market Summary
In addition to my more detailed reports I am publishing this summary showing just the main numbers.
For more details on the SFH market read Swampscott 2015 Housing Market review and for condos Swampscott 2015 Condo market review.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
2015 Swampscott housing market review
This 2015 Swampscott housing market review focuses on the Single Family Home (SFH) market. I shall publish a separate report on the condo market. I have also published a one page Summary of the main numbers.
For the year sales increased 10% to a new record, while the median price increased 5%, but is still some 11% below the 2005 peak. 2005 was, however, an exceptional year (read What happened in Swampscott in 2005?) and the 2015 level was the second highest reported. I suggested in my mid-year review that the shortage of inventory should lead to higher prices in the second half of the year and that did, indeed, occur, with a strong finish to the year in Q4.
Median price
Sales
Sales were a record in 2015, beating the previous peak of 170 in 2004.
Sales at the higher end has been impacted by Swampscott’s high tax rate, so it was encouraging to see a sharp increase in sales above $1 million in 2015:
ASR*
Even though Swampscott had a significant increase in its Assessed Values last year, the ratio of AV to Sale Price (see below for an explanation) increased only to 90.5%, meaning that the median sales prices was 10% (100/90.5) above the new Assessed Values.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
Swampscott continues to see new development and conversions, and its proximity to Boston, whether by commuter train or the T from Wonderland, ensures that the market remains attractive to those who accept the trade off with higher taxes.
* One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall.
Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills that have just been sent out for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
What happened in Swampscott in 2005?
While housing markets in Boston and places like Cambridge have been hitting new highs for the last 2-3 years, it takes time for higher prices to ripple further out. When the final numbers are tallied, the median price in Essex County in 2015 will be within about 1% of its peak, with many towns already reaching new highs. In Swampscott, however, the median price is still 11% below its peak, leading me to ask: what happened in Swampscott in 2005?
Price mix of sales
Only a very small percentage – 5% or less – of SFHs change hands each year, so while the median price of those that do sell can and does provide a good indication of the market, there is always the possibility that sales in any year will not be reflective of the overall housing market. It is for the same reason that we see quarterly fluctuations in median prices when sales in any quarter are skewed to a particular price range. These fluctuations do, however, tend to even out over time.
I looked at the sales in Swampscott for 2005 and compared them with the years either side. This is what I found: the biggest difference was that sales under $400,000 – which were 34% of the total in 2004 and 39% in 2006 – were only 20% in 2005. Conversely, sales over $500,000 were 53% in 2005, compared with only 35% in 2004 and 34% in 2006.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
My conclusion is that 2005 was an outlier in terms of its sales mix. Had 2005 seen a more normal mix of sales, then the median price would have been somewhere in the mid $400s and we would now be talking of a market close to its previous peak.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
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