Swampscott: where have all the sellers gone?
Recently, I published Swampscott homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell.
Since then, all 3 of the houses listed at the time for under $1 million have had offers accepted, while this week two more were listed :
11 Bay View Drive at $665,000, and 85 Walker Road at $459,900.
There are currently just 11 houses for sale in Swampscott and 5 of those are new construction in a 55+ community; 3 others are $2.9 million or more, and the last one is 20 One Salem Street at $1.2 million.
So…. if you have been thinking of selling it is hard to imagine a better opportunity: 3,462 SFHs in Swampscott and only 6 of them (the other 5 are new construction) for sale. The demand is there, but where is the supply?
If you would like to know what your home might sell for in this market please contact me to arrange for Team Harborside to visit you and give you a current market opinion.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell
The lack of housing inventory has been a feature of markets for several years, but nowhere to my knowledge has reached the situation currently prevailing in Swampscott.
Guess how many Single Family Homes are for sale currently? Just 12. Let me repeat that – there are 12 SFHs for sale in Swampscott. A town which has 3,462 SFHs.
And wait, there is more. (more…)
How did North Shore Home Prices Perform in the last Decade?
The decade from 2010-2019 saw a remarkably consistent record of Single Family Home Price increases throughout the North Shore and Essex County.
For the purposes of comparison I have converted all prices to a base of 100 for 2009.
The first chart shows the performance of Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Essex County as a whole. If you look at the numbers for 2019 you can see how consistent the performance was, with a 50% increase over the decade.
(more…)
How is Swampscott’s 2020 Property Tax rate calculated?
Swampscott’ residential tax rate will drop from $15.20 in Fiscal Year 2019 to $14.30 in FY 2020 (and down from a high of $18.84 in FY 2013). The FY 2020 rate will be the lowest since 2008.
Commercial and industrial property is surcharged at 170%, as in FY 2019, resulting in a tax rate of $27.45, down from $28.83 in FY 2018 (and a high of $35.02 in FY 2013).
The average SFH tax bill has been flat in recent years, while the average commercial tax bill has increased:

Were a single tax rate to be enacted – meaning that residential and commercial property were taxed at the same rate – that rate would be $15.10 for FY 2020. The average SFH and condo tax bills would increase by 5.6% while the average commercial bill would drop 41.2%.

How is the rate calculated?
The method of calculating the tax rate is quite simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s tax levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any new growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new maximum tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt.
Note that in recent years, Swampscott has not assessed the maximum allowed under this formula, a decision that has reduced the tax bill for residents. The average tax bill will decline by $23 in FY 2020, a third consecutive year of decline.
Here are the numbers for FY 2018, 2018 and 2020, remembering that the FY runs from July to June.

The Tax Levy calculation
The maximum $ amount that can be raised by the property tax will increase year by year. That is because of the formula: last year’s number plus 2.5% (Prop 2 1/2) plus new growth. In the table above you can see how the FY 2019 maximum tax levy of $50,034,670 becomes the base for FY 2020. Add $1,250,867 for Prop 2 1/2 and new growth of $425,000 to get the new figure of $51,710,537.
To this number is added the debt service – Principal and Interest on the town’s debt, much as homeowners pay P&I on their mortgage. Note that the actual tax levy was less than the maximum allowed by just over $2 million in FY 2018, by $3.4 million in FY 2019 and by $4.4 million in FY 2020. In other words, the amount to be raised through taxes was reduced by these amounts each year.
The Tax Rate
The actual tax rate depends upon the total Assessed Value of all property: residential, and commercial, industrial and personal (CIP). The tax rate is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount to be raised from each class by the Assessed Value of each class. Thus, the headline tax rate will also fluctuate depending upon the direction of Assessed Values.
In simplistic terms, if we assume that the $ amount to be raised increases by a little more than 2 1/2% each year, then if the average Assessed Value also increases by a little more than 2 1/2% the tax rate will be unchanged. If the increase in Assessed Values is less than 2 1/2%, then the tax rate will rise. And if the increase in Assessed Values is more than 2 1/2% then the tax rate will fall. In recent years Assessed Values have been increasing significantly more than 2 1/2% allowing for the tax rate to decline sharply.
Looking at the Swampscott residential tax rate, in FY 2019 it was $15.20, achieved by dividing $42.6 million raised from residential homeowners by the residential AV of $2.8 billion. In FY 2020 the amount to be raised from residential taxpayers is set to increase slightly to $42.9 million, but because the total residential AV increased by 7.2% to $3.0 billion, the headline tax rate has dropped sharply to just $14.30, the lowest figure since 2009.
Comment
The residential real estate market in Swampscott was stable in 2019 (and 2019 prices will be the basis for the FY 20201 tax rate), with the median price of Single Family Homes sold rising less than 1%, while the median price of the condos sold declined 2.5%. Sales in any year represent only a small percentage of the total stock so it does not follow that assessed values calculated by the town will mirror these movements.
As to the tax rate for FY 2021, that depends on a number of factors: the amount of debt service, how much of the maximum tax levy is assessed, and the shift to the CIP class being three of them. Absent some change in methodology, however, it does not seem likely that the residential tax rate will see a further decline in FY 2021.
From a residential real estate perspective, the substantial decline in the tax rate in recent years and the stability in tax bills are both very welcome news and are clearly encouraging more people to decide both to live and work in Swampscott.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click Swampscott 2019 to download a copy of this report.]
Single Family Homes
After three years of strong growth the median price of the SFHs sold in 2019 increased less than 1%. Sales remained well below the peak level of 2015.

Condos
The median price of the condos sold dropped 2.5% to $345,000. Excluding sales at the Avery development in both years the median price increased $4,000.

NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary
[Click Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary to download a PDF of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the first 9 months of 2019 edged higher, while sales dropped to the lowest figure since 2012. The median Days to Offer (DTO) declined from 12 to 10.5

Condos
Sales dropped sharply from last year’s number but were close to the 5-year average. The decline in the median price was accounted for by the smaller number of sales at Avery. DTO increased sharply from 8 to 20.

NB Numbers in bold represent record levels. Sources: MLSPIN, OliverReports.com
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
4 bed Classic Swampscott Colonial, OH Sunday 11:30-1:00.
DISCOVER TIMELESS APPEAL AND COMFORTABLE LIVING, JUST A SHORT STROLL FROM THE BEACH
The colors of autumn create a warm, inviting backdrop that blends cool evenings with great food and libation shared at home among family and friends.
If you’re in the market for a new residence for those harmonious evenings, there will be an Open House at 3 Beverly Road in Swampscott this SUNDAY from 11:30-1:00pm. With a custom designed kitchen and a double-sided fireplace, this 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, classic colonial home is perfect for comfortable living and relaxed entertaining. The professional landscaped perennial garden and inviting layout are best experienced in person.


Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Mid-Year 2019 Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in H1 2019 edged higher on lower sales.

Condos
Condo sales dropped sharply, in part only because of fewer sales at Avery.

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Swampscott Median Price: Flash Q2 Report
The preliminary numbers show that the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Swampscott in the first half of 2019 increased by less than 1% to a new high of $580,000. Sales dropped back to 2017 levels.
A full report will be published when the final numbers are available.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Supply by Price in North Shore Towns
Conventional wisdom is that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current inventory represents 6 months of sales. Currently, as shown in the tables below, the overall inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County represents just 3.1 months of supply, indicating that the market still favours sellers.
But overall numbers can disguise large differences in supply at different price points. The first table shows two supply numbers: in Marblehead, Swampscott and Beverly for prices under $750,000 and for prices above that level; in Salem, Lynn and Essex County overall the numbers are for prices under $500,000 and for prices about that level.

Notice how supply increases dramatically at higher price points. The following tables for individual towns break down that supply further.
Marblehead
The market comes into equilibrium above $600,000 and favours buyers above $1.5 million. Note that generally higher priced houses take longer to sell and also often see higher sales in summer months. (more…)
Housing Inventory by Price in North Shore towns
While conventional wisdom holds that a market is in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the current inventory represents 6 months of sales, that overall number masks major differences which occur at different price points.
The tables below show the position by price for Essex County overall and for Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn.
Essex County
The table below breaks down supply at different price levels for Essex County overall.This shows that the dynamic between sellers and buyers changes as prices go above $750,000.
Swampscott Q1 2019 Housing Market Review
[Click Swampscott Q1 2019 Housing Market Review to download a pdf of this report]
Q1 is always the slowest quarter of the year for sales, but in 2019 that was especially true in Swampscott. Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) dropped from 22 to 14 and of Condos from 20 to 10. There were no condo sales at Avery included in either year. (more…)
Swampscott 2018 Housing Market By The Numbers
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in Swampscott in 2018 increased 10.5% to a new record of $587,250. Sales recovered, but only to the 2016 level.

Condos
The median price was influenced by the sale of 16 units in the new Avery development. Excluding those, the median price was $329,950, which was still a 12% increase. Sales were a new record, helped by the 16 at Avery.

Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Headlines for Marblehead and Swampscott
Marblehead
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Marblehead in 2018 increased 3.7% to a new record of $689,500. Sales dropped to the lowest level since 2011.

Swampscott
After finally breaking the 2005 peak of $517,300 in 2017, the median price jumped 10.8% in 2018. Sales recovered to the 2016 level, but were below the levels of 2013-2015.

Detailed reports on both markets (and several others) will be published in the near future.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Housing Supply is limited in Marblehead and Swampscott
In my Inventory starts 2019 continuing rising trend article yesterday I commented: While inventory has been increasing steadily for some months, in absolute terms it is still low.
Inventory in New England is always low in the first few months of the year, and activity in the first quarter of the year is very weather dependent, but in this article I show the current inventory (in terms of months of supply*) for Marblehead and Swampscott, as well as for Essex County overall.
Marblehead
Only 3 houses currently for sale under $600,000 and only 18 under $1 million.

Swampscott
Just 10 houses for sale under $1 million.

Essex County
Very limited supply under $1 million.

* a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when supply is 6 months
Comment
The economy is still strong, if slowing somewhat, and mortgage rates have dropped back to 4.5%.
It is early January and it is New England and winter, but there do seem to be opportunities for sellers in many price ranges.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
617.834.8205
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