Swampscott Mid-Year Review: Prices hit new high
Reflecting the low level of inventory, sales of Single family Homes (SFHs) dropped sharply in the first half of 2017, but the median price increased by 10% to a new high for the first half of the year of $539,900 and is on track – finally – to surpass the 2005 peak of $517,300 for the full year.
For most of the year the number of condos for sale has been 5 or fewer and the number has only “jumped” to 9 because of the new Avery development. The median price in the first half increased 16% to a new high of $295,750, but in a small market with wide variation in prices the median price can reflect the type of condo sold in a particular time period. Nevertheless, 15 of the 37 Condo sales in the first half of the year took place above the list price, an indication of strong demand.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
Here is the chart of half-yearly median prices since 2012, followed by a table showing quarterly numbers.
In a seasonal (think winter) market with a limited number of sales, quarterly fluctuations can and frequently do occur (which is why I place greater emphasis on semi-annual and annual numbers)
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Sales
The shortage of inventory has caught up with sales.
SFH Sales by price
This table shows that the percentage of houses selling below $500,000 has declined in the last three years from 59% to 51% and now just 32%. Since the median price is that at which 50% of sales are higher and 50% lower, as the percentage dropped from above 50% to below it, so the median price has moved from under $500,000 to above it.
Current SFH Inventory
There are currently 5 SFHs for sale under $500,000 and a total of just 18 under $1 million. The biggest change compared with last year is the drop from 20 to 10 in the number for sale between $600,000 and $1 million.
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Condo Market
The condo market in Swampscott is small and varies from modestly priced developments around Vinnin Square to luxury oceanfront units. Those two factors can – and frequently – do cause swings in the recorded median price. The larger the sample the more reliable the number (the law of large numbers) so I place some confidence in the half-yearly number and most in the full year’s figure. Note also the breakdown in sales by price shown after the pricing information.
MLS, Oliver Reports
Condo Sales by price
This table shows that the percentage of condos selling below $250,000 has declined in the last three years from 59% to 43% and now just 25%. Since the median price is that at which 50% of sales are higher and 50% lower, as the percentage dropped from above 50% to below it, so the median price has moved from under $250,000 to above it.
15 of the 37 Condo sales in the first half of the year took place above the list price, an indication of strong demand.
Current Condo Inventory
5 of the 9 condos currently for sale have just come on to the market at the new Avery development, which will add 42 units to the market.
COMMENT
It is no surprise that the combination of very low inventory, strong demand and low mortgage rates has finally pushed the median price of SFHs selling in Swampscott to a new high, with 20 of the 54 SFH sales taking place above list price. While the factors cited last, there is no reason to expect a change in the upward movement of prices.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Is there really an inventory shortage?
You have all read – and I have written enough – about the chronic shortage of inventory to assume that the answer to this question is a resounding yes. But it all depends on price.
A market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when the number of homes for sale equals about 6 months of sales. I have put together charts for Marblehead, Swampscott and Essex County overall, showing, by price, the number of sales so far this year plus the number scheduled to close by June 30 and compared that with the number of homes currently for sale. If the market were in equilibrium – the two bars for each price would be the same size.
Let’s see what we have. First, let’s look at the overall market for Marblehead and Swampscott: clearly supply is below the level of a market in equilibrium, so it is a sellers’ market.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Now let’s look in more detail. First, Marblehead:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
At all price points up to $1 million, supply is way below sales levels for the first half of the year. But as soon as we go over $1 million the position is reversed. And the total number of homes for sale under $1 million is just 23.
Next, Swampscott:
A similar story here, except that the supply equation reverses at $700,000 – with one exception. Note that from $1-1.5 million there are fewer homes for sale than have sold so far in 2017.
Finally, let’s look at the 34 cities and towns of Essex County overall:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
And in more detail:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Sellers are in control up to $700,000; the market is in balance between $700,000 and $1 million; and it is a buyers’ market over $1 million.
Comment
One of the surprises of the market this year has been how weak demand has been for higher-priced homes. Logically, with the market so active under $1 million, and macro-economic factors – the stock market at record levels, expectations/hopes of tax cuts coming – positive, one would expect to see sellers trading up. And that is especially true in a town Marblehead, a town people are reluctant to leave – meaning most sellers plan to buy another house in town.
The optimistic view is that this may be a timing issue and that sales of higher priced houses will soon pick up. But clearly this is an excellent time to trade up to a higher priced home – and you don’t have to compete with 90 groups at Marblehead Open House.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
90 Groups at Marblehead Open House
After my post last week 60 groups at Swampscott Open House for house in the $500s, this past weekend there were 90 groups at a Marblehead Open House for a house in the $600s.
If we assume 50% of the attendees at each Open House were genuine buyers, that means there are 29 buyers still looking for a house in Swampscott in the $500s and 44 in Marblehead in the $600s.
Read Sellers: now is the time to act.
Then read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
60 groups at Swampscott Open House
Is there strong demand for houses under $600,000? Well last weekend 60 groups visited an Open House for a property in that price range and the house went under agreement on Monday. It would be a reasonable bet that it will sell for over the list price.
Is there strong demand? I think the answer is obvious.
Read my Swampscott market report just published for an up-to-date report on the current market.
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q1 2017 Housing Market Report: inventory shortage
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) dropped in Q1 while prices rose sharply. Caution is needed because of the low volume of sales, but the chart below the table, showing sales YTD, pending sales and current inventory, clearly suggests that the median price is going to remain above $500,000 and threaten, at last, to break the 2005 peak of $517,300.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median price
YTD the median price of sales is $524,000; the median list price of pending sales and homes available for sale are both well in excess of $550,000.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
In markets such as Swampscott with a small number of condo sales I do not report in depth on Q1 numbers, which saw sales increase from 9 to 14 while the median price declined from $268,050 to $245,000.
More significant is the inventory situation: there are just 2 condos for sale in Swampscott.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
While it is important to understand that the median price reflects what is actually selling or available for sale, rather than the entire market, it is a reliable guide to activity as sellers (and real estate agents) price new listings based on comparable sales.
What is very clear is that there is an extreme shortage of both SFHs and condos for sale in Swampscott. And we all know what that means for prices.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott 2016 Housing Market by the Numbers
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $488,000, still well below the exceptional $517,300 of 2005. Sales dropped 14% as supply was sharply lower throughout the year.
The median price of a condo rose 4% to $255,000, 11% below the 2005 peak. Sales fell back from the levels of the prior two years. (more…)
Swampscott 2016 housing market: prices up, supply really low
In 2016 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott increased by $28,000, or 6%, to $488,000, a sharp recovery from the Great Recession lows but still 6% below the exceptional peak of $517,300 in 2005 (read What happened in Swampscott in 2005?). Sales dropped back, largely in the second half of the year, but the big story was the continuing shrinking of the number of homes for sale, which averaged only half the level of 2014.
Median price*
The first chart, with the numbers below, shows the median price for the two halves of the year and for the full year. But for 2005, 2016 would have represented a new high.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Huge jump in Mortgage Loan Limits
Home buyers in Essex County and Suffolk County received a major boost this week with the announcement that the limit for conforming mortgages was being increased by 18% from $523,250 to $598,000.
For a buyer putting down 20% the price of a home that can be financed conventionally – meaning that it can be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac – jumps by almost $100,000, from $654,063 to $747,500.
This table shows the trend in the last few years: (more…)
Swampscott Q3 Housing Market Summary
Through the Third Quarter, the median price of a Single Family House (SFH) in Swampscott rose 6% to $485,000, while that for a condo rose 4% to $253,700. Both median prices remain well below their 2005 peaks.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports; peak in bold
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Not sure which broker to use to sell your home? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q3 report: prices up, inventory well down
For the first 9 months of 2015 the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) in Swampscott increased 6% to $485,000. This is the highest figure since the exceptional $507,000 in the first 9 months of 2005. While sales held up quite well in the first half of the year the acute shortage of inventory started to make an impact on sales in Q3. The last table in this report graphically illustrated the decline in the number of houses for sale in the last two years.
In this report I will look at the Q3 numbers, the YTD numbers and also give a preview of where I think the year will end up.
Q3 median price
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott Mid-Year Review: median price up 10%
The main feature of the first half was a 10.5% increase in the median price of a Single Family Home (SFH) to $491,500.
For the last year I have been highlighting the shortage of inventory in Swampscott, especially at the lower end. In my 2015 mid-year review I wrote: “Of the 47 SFHs for sale today just 7 are listed below $445,000, the median sales price for the first half of 2015. And only 11 are below $500,000.” And in my review of this year’s Q1 I added:”The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.”
Low inventory + low mortgage rates + buyers looking = higher prices.
The condo market has seen an extraordinary shrinkage in inventory, with only 10 condos currently for sale – and 4 of those are over $1 million.
A breakdown of current inventory is shown further on in this report. (more…)
What’s the current supply of houses for sale locally?
This report sets out to analyze the current supply of houses for sale in Marblehead, Swampscott and Salem.
Single Family Homes (SFH)
First, let’s look at sales so far this year to May 20. The pace of sales is slower in winter so these numbers overstate the supply. Bear in mind that a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply.
Next I looked at recent activity, namely the number of SFHs which had offers accepted since the beginning of April and compared that with current supply. April, May and June are generally the three largest months for accepted offers in these markets, so these numbers may slightly understate supply going forward, but they provide a stark indication of how little supply there is today, especially in Swampscott and Salem:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
While sales numbers for SFHs are similar for the three towns, they are very different for condos, where only Salem has a large market. Thus the supply number for Salem is more significant than for the other towns:
Turning to accepted offers since the beginning of April, the supply drops sharply in all markets. Note that in Salem there have been 47 accepted offers so far in May alone and there are just 61 for sale.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
This report quantifies just how short of supply the market is, especially in Swampscott and Salem. And bear in mind that these numbers are for the total market; at lower prices there is even less supply, as higher priced properties generally take longer to sell.
The supply numbers are somewhat better in Marblehead where there is some evidence that list prices of SFHs have increased this year, possibly in advance of the market.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott housing market still lacks supply
The data I maintain on home sales is useful but, since sales can take 2-3 months to complete from the date an offer is accepted, they do not provide as current a picture of the market as accepted offers. This article covers month by month this year the listing prices of houses in Swampscott where the seller has accepted an offer, together with the Days on Market (the number of days since the house was listed for sale) of the current inventory. Read my comments at the end of the post.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Note that just over half the accepted offers were on houses listed under $500,000.
Here is the month-by-month breakdown:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The pace of sales has been very steady, despite the lack of inventory.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
This is the current inventory by price and by Days on Market (DOM):
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
While the average DOM is 87, below $1 million that number drops to 40. Note also that with sales running at 4 per week, the current inventory represents just 2 months of supply – and even less under $1 million.
Comment
The median SFH sales price in 2016 in Swampscott was $460,000 and as of today there are just 2 houses for sale below that figure and only 5 in all under $500,000. Furthermore, the median list price of the 58 houses with accepted offers through April was $499,000.
Inventory in Swampscott is well below the level of recent years as shown here:
The law of supply and demand continues to point to a rising market in Swampscott. If you are thinking of selling, now would be an excellent time.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing Inventory today, by price and town, versus a year ago
This article compares today’s inventory, by price, compared with that of a year ago.We are now past the vagaries of winter weather and the dates of Easter and Passover, thus making the comparisons like for like for probably the first time this year. I will look first at Essex County and Massachusetts for the big picture, followed by Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn, adding comments where appropriate.
Overall, the story is of a decline in inventory at lower price levels and an increase at higher price points, a trend consistent with a rising market.
Massachusetts and Essex County
Overall inventory is down in the entire State by 9% for SFHs and 6% for condos; in Essex County the decline is 10% for SFHs and 12% for condos. But…. there is a marked difference between supply under $500,000 and above that figure, with large declines in supply below $500,000 and increases above that figure, particularly at the top end.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Marblehead
While Marblehead is one of the few towns to show an increase in inventory over 2015, it still shows a sharp drop from the 92 and 100 SFHs for sales on this date in 2013 and 2014, while condo inventory is more in line with numbers from those years. The increase in SFH inventory is concentrated in the $750,000 – $999,999 and over $2 million brackets for SFHs and, rather surprisingly, in condos under $250,000.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott
The story in Swampscott continues to be the incredibly low level of supply, most markedly for SFHs below $500,000, where the number available has collapsed from 25 to just 3. And there are just 5 condos for sale in the entire town.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Salem
While overall supply in Salem is down just slightly from last year, here again we see declines in inventory at the lower price levels:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Beverly
The total number of SFHs for sale is much the same as last year but the mix has changed, with a huge drop under $400,000 and increases in most of the higher ranges. Condos for sale under $250,000 plunged from 16 to just 4.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Lynn
The decline is most pronounced in SFHs under $300,000 where supply has more than halved from 48 to 23.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers
This report gives a picture of the Swampscott Q1 Housing Market by the Numbers, followed by a snapshot of current inventory compared with a year ago, a comparison which shows a huge drop.
Median Prices and Sales
Sales of both SFHs and condos were down slightly from last year, while the median price for both categories increased somewhat. Always remember that quarterly numbers can be – and frequently are – volatile, especially during the winter months. We will get a truer picture of the underlying market trends when we get the numbers for the first half of the year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Current Inventory
The big story is the shortness of inventory compared with a year ago. The number of SFHs for sale under $500,000 is just 5 compared with 19 a year ago. Overall inventory for both SFHs and condos is about half that of a year ago.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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