Why I don’t rely on Trulia

Let me start by saying that I think sites like Trulia and Zillow provide a useful service in terms of informing buyers about things like Open Houses. I also like the feature on Zillow that shows the price and tax history of a property listed for sale.

Where I have a problem with such sites is when they quote “statistics”. The danger with statistics always lies with the way they can be presented to give an impression of authority even when the statistics themselves are meaningless. It is always, always essential to be clear what is included in quoted statistics. If it is not clear do not rely on the numbers quoted!

What drives this comment? I had an email yesterday from Trulia entitled Marblehead Weekend Update. Prominently displayed was a box saying:

Source: Zillow

What the you know what? $289,000!!!

I duly viewed Local Trends and found quoted a median sales price from October 14 to January 15 of $310,000, down 12.4% from a year earlier.

Intrigued I went into my statistics from MLS for that same period. There were 60 SFH sales at a median price of $624,000 and 11 condo sales with a median price of $275,000. Even combining the two (why?)  produces a median price of $590,000.

So where does Trulia get $310,000?  Reading on I found this quote: “The median sales price for homes in Marblehead MA for Oct 14 to Jan 15 was $310,000 based on 3 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 12.4%, or $44,000, and the number of home sales decreased 62.5%.” 3 home sales! And last year there were just 8 according to Trulia!

Clearly, therefore, Trulia’s “statistic” is meaningless, using a tiny, tiny fraction of actual sales during the period quoted.

I also found this delightful quote about Marblehead on Zillow: “West Town Landing, Derby Wharf, and Marblehead Lighthouse are nearby cities.” Really?

My first report for the Marblehead Reporter in 2008 was entitled: “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.” I analyze numbers extensively in my work. I use consistent criteria from quarter to quarter and year to year and try always to explain the basis for my analysis.

Don’t stop using Trulia or Zillow, but please do not rely on their “statistics!”

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

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