How has the housing market in Middlesex County compared with Essex?
Recently, in response to two of my articles Where have all the condo sellers gone? and Homes for sale in Essex County plummet, a reader wondered whether the numbers would be different for Middlesex County. With the latter containing towns closer to Boston, I suspect the question was whether Middlesex would show stronger results than Essex.
The first comparison, in terms of both SFHs and Condos for sale, shows a very similar trend between the two Counties. In every case the decline in Middlesex was greater than that in Essex, but in none of the comparisons is that difference striking.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
After doing all these calculations, I re-read the comment and saw that the question asked about sales in the two Counties. I suspect this was the real question (not my misinterpretation above): have sales rebounded more strongly closer to Boston?
Once again, however, for SFHs we see a similar trend between the Counties; sales declined slightly more in Essex than they did in Middlesex between 2005 and 2013, but in the first 9 months of 2014 sales in Essex declined less than they did in Middlesex.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
There was a greater disparity between the Counties in condo sales, although Essex seems to be catching up in 2014:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
So much for sales and properties for sale. What about median prices?
Here, we do see a differential. First SFHs:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The median price decline in SFHs in Middlesex was clearly less than in Essex County in the Great Recession. In Middlesex the median price will hit a new high in 2014, while Essex seems to be a year behind. Had the median price in Essex kept pace with Middlesex it would be some $30,000 higher currently.
Has there been a similar trend in condo prices? Yes, but to a significantly greater degree. To keep pace with Middlesex the Essex median price would need to have been $290,000 in the first 9 months of 2014.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
What conclusions can one draw from these numbers?
Prices in Middlesex County overall did not decline as much they did in Essex County and have also recovered more strongly. But note that Essex County contains 34 cities and towns and Middlesex 54. Undoubtedly, different towns have different stories so the overall numbers are a starting point for further analysis, not the final answer, but they do indicate a general trend.
What intrigues me, however, is that whereas sales, in both Essex and Middlesex, at least for SFHs, have returned to close to their prior levels, the number of properties for sale overall is 50-80% below peak levels and 30-60% below the average of the last decade.
This is a point I shall return to in future as it needs further thought and research, but it does seem to give definition, on the one hand, to the Realtor’s lament that “there’s nothing for sale”, and on the other to the cry that “inventory’s up” when comparing only with the immediate past.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
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