Accepted Offers see small Uptick
The number of of properties receiving Accepted Offers – the best indicator of current market activity – has shown a modest increase since the low recorded in the week ending April 3.
This chart compares the number of SFHs receiving accepted offers week by week in 2019 and 2020 in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County (I have used Essex County to get a large enough sample to be significant.)
For the first 9 weeks of the year – through March 6, 2020 (March 8, 2019) – the number of accepted offers was slightly ahead: averaging 91 vs 87 in 2019.
The number of accepted offers then started to drop: by 18, 23, 27, 71, 88 and this past week by 74. But the actual number of Accepted Offers has seen a small increase from 68 to 79 and 82 in the last two weeks.
The curve is flattening
We have learned to be on the lookout for the flattening of the curve with COVID_19 so let’s apply the same technique to the housing market. This chart shows the percentage change each week compared with 2019:
This is the change in the last few weeks:
Outlook
April traditionally sees an uptick in market activity – the “spring market”. In 2019, the weekly average – even allowing for the drop in Holy Week – in the four full weeks of April was 146 accepted offers.
Adding to the economic uncertainty is the challenge of viewing properties, but we are rapidly developing a new norm for the process as buyers and sellers adapt.
It seems likely that the number of accepted offers will continue to trail below last year’s levels, but properties are still selling. It will be instructive to see if the level of activity picks up as cash from the many stimulus programs starts to arrive.
While activity will drop, it is not clear what the impact will be on prices. I suspect that will be a case-by-case situation depending upon the specific circumstances of sellers. Essex County is largely a first home – meaning primary residence – market. Contrast that with Naples, Florida – a second or vacation home market, where 65% of properties which went under agreement in the last 3 weeks have come back on to the market.
As with the economy at large, the housing market entered this shutdown from a position of strength: a chronic shortage of supply and low mortgage rates. The best outcome might be a resetting of the supply/demand imbalance creating a more stable market.
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2019 median home prices: a Town by Town guide
[Click here to download the table listing towns in alphabetical order, and here to download the table showing towns from highest to lowest median price.]Overall, in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, the median Single Family Home (SFH) price increased 3.9% to $475,000 in 2019, while sales were up 2.7%. Both were new record highs.
The table below shows the median price for each town for the last 3 years, with the percentage change in 2019. It also compares sales for the last two years.
Note that a small number of sales can lead to price fluctuations. In general, the larger the number of sales, the more reliable is the median price.
While the overall median price in Essex County was $475,000, only 12 of the 34 cities and towns had median prices below this level, while 22 had median prices above $475,000. The reason for this is that the median price for the the County is calculated by taking all 6,000 plus individual property sales, and many of the towns with a large number of sales are in communities with lower prices.
Calculating the median price for Essex County using towns – i.e. the median price of 34 numbers – rather than individual sales produces a median price of $584,500.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a PDF of this report.]Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in 2019 increased 3.9% to a new record $475,000. The pace of gain increased in H2. Sales increased 2.7%, just reaching a new high.
Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold in 2019 increased 6.7%, to $320,000. Sales increased 1.8%.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Q3 2019 Market Summary
[Click Q3 2019 Essex County Market Summary to download a copy of this report.]Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in the first 9 months of 2019 (YTD Q3 2019) increased 3.7% to $477,000, with the rate of gain increasing in Q3. Sales YTD increased 3.2%.
Condos
The median price of Condos/Townhomes sold YTD Q3 2019 increased 5.4%, to $315,000. Sales were essentially flat.
Comment
While the overall inventory at October 1 represented just 2.1 months of supply ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the number varies widely by price: from just 1 month for SFHs under $750,000, 3 months from $750,000 to $1.5 million; and nearly 14 months at prices over $1.5 million.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County Mid-Year 2019 Housing Market Summary
[Click here to download a copy of the report.]Single Family Homes (SFH)
The median price of SFHs sold increased a modest 2.2% to a new high of $465,000, while sales were in line with the numbers in recent years.
Condos
The median condo sales price increased 5.1% to $310,000, as the price reached or exceeded $300,000 for the fifth consecutive quarter. Sales eased slightly.
NB Numbers in bold represent record levels
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory back to 2017 levels
For the 12th consecutive month the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased compared with the same month of the previous year. For the last two months the 2019 number has returned to the levels of 2017.
Condos
The number of Condos for sale increased, compared with the same month of the prior year, for the 13th consecutive month in June.For the last two months the number has been running ahead of 20-17 levels. (more…)
Essex County Inventory Increases Further
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased year over year (YOY) for the 11th consecutive month in May:
(more…)
Essex County Q1 2019 Housing Market Review
[Click Essex County Q1 2019 Housing Market Report to download a pdf of this report]The median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County in Q1 2019 increased 2.9% to $445,000, while sales were almost exactly the same as a year ago. (more…)
Million Dollar Sales jump 15% in Essex County
Sales of Single Family Homes (SFH) at $1 million or more in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County jumped 15% in 2019 to a record level of 331.
Andover took over the number one position from Marblehead, where Million Dollar sales have been flat for the last three years:
Click Million Dollar Sales by Town to download a copy of the table including aggregate numbers not in the table above.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory : rising trend continues
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased again in February, the 8th consecutive month of increase Year-on-Year. The first chart below shows January-June and the second one July-December:
Condos
It is the same story with condos, except that here the increase in February was the 9th consecutive month of Year-on-Year increases:
Comment
Translating inventory into months of supply is complicated this early in the year for two reasons: inventory is always low in the winter, as is sales activity. I will, however, write another post soon showing the current inventory by price for each of the towns and cities of Essex County.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2018 Housing Market By The Numbers
[Click here to download a copy of this report.]Single Family Homes(SFH)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County increased 3.9% to $457,000, while sales eased very slightly from the 2017 level.
Condos
The median price of Condos sold in 2018 increased 5.3%, reaching $300,000 for the first time. Sales declined by 5% from the 2017 level.
*figures in bold represent record levels
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Essex County 2018 Median Home Prices: Town by Town
[Click here to download the table listing towns in alphabetical order, and here to download the table showing towns from highest to lowest median price.]Overall, in the 34 cities and towns of Essex County, the median Single Family Home (SFH) price increased 3.9% to $457,000, while sales were down 2%.
The table below shows the median price for each town for the last 4 years, with the percentage change in 2918. It also compares sales for the last two years.
Note that a small number of sales can lead to price fluctuations, as in Essex Town, Rockport and Wenham amongst others. In general, the larger the number of sales, the more reliable is the median price.
While the overall median price in Essex County was $457,000, only 12 of the 34 cities and towns had median prices below this level, while 22 had median prices above $457,000. The reason for this is that the median price for the the County is calculated by taking all individual property sales, and many of the towns with a large number of sales are in communities with lower prices.
Calculating the median price for Essex County using towns rather than individual sales produces a median price of $547,500.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside
Sotheby’s International Realty
www.andrewJoliver.com
www.OliverReports.com
Tel: 617.834.8205
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
When is the best time to buy or sell a house?
The best time to sell a home is the spring or early summer, right? But is there evidence to back up that belief? This article provides the answer to the question: when is the best time to buy or sell a home?
I looked at the median price of the Single Family Homes (SFH) sold in Essex County by quarter over the last 19 years. (Note that in all my reports, while sales numbers include all recorded MLS sales, median prices exclude distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales).
The highest price recorded each year is highlighted. This shows that in 15 of the 19 years the highest median price was recorded in Q3 – July to September; in three years the highest price was achieved in Q2, and in just one – 2000 – the highest price was in Q4. But in none of the years did Q1 see the highest price.
The next table shows the same data but with the lowest quarterly price highlighted. Here we see that in 16 of the 19 years the lowest median price was seen in Q1 and in the other 3 years it occurred in Q4, but never in Q2 or Q3.
Let me summarize these in a table:
Conclusion
While the argument has always been made that the spring or summer is the best time to sell a house because that is when there are more buyers looking (hence, more sales take place), the evidence here adds the additional information that the best prices are also achieved in the summer months.
Thus, as a seller one does indeed want to be ready to go to the market when the thermometer rises. Conversely, the best time to buy is :
In the bleak mid-winter
Frosty wind made moan,
Earth stood hard as iron,
Water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow,
Snow on snow,
In the bleak mid-winter
Long ago.
Sounds a lot like the forecast for this weekend.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
Read How should I choose the broker to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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Housing Supply is limited in Marblehead and Swampscott
In my Inventory starts 2019 continuing rising trend article yesterday I commented: While inventory has been increasing steadily for some months, in absolute terms it is still low.
Inventory in New England is always low in the first few months of the year, and activity in the first quarter of the year is very weather dependent, but in this article I show the current inventory (in terms of months of supply*) for Marblehead and Swampscott, as well as for Essex County overall.
Marblehead
Only 3 houses currently for sale under $600,000 and only 18 under $1 million.
Swampscott
Just 10 houses for sale under $1 million.
Essex County
Very limited supply under $1 million.
* a market is generally regarded as being in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when supply is 6 months
Comment
The economy is still strong, if slowing somewhat, and mortgage rates have dropped back to 4.5%.
It is early January and it is New England and winter, but there do seem to be opportunities for sellers in many price ranges.
Andrew Oliver
Realtor, Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
www.OliverReports.com
617.834.8205
Essex County: town by town guide to Median Prices
This table shows median prices for the full years 2015, 2016 and 2017, and median prices and sales for the first 9 months of 2017. Note that a small number of sales can lead to price fluctuations, as in Nahant, Essex Town and Wenham amongst others. In general, the larger the number of sales, the more reliable is the median price.
While the overall median price in Essex County was $460,000, only 12 of the 34 cities and towns had median prices below this level, while 22 had median prices above $440,000. The reason for this is that the median price for the the County is calculated by taking all individual property sales, and many of the towns with a large number of sales are in communities with lower prices.
Calculating the median price for Essex County using towns rather than individual sales produces a median price of $543,975.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact Andrew Oliver on 617.834.8205 or Kathleen Murphy on 603.498.6817.
If you are looking to buy, we will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver and Kathleen Murphy are Realtors with Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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