The Facts about Inventory and Home Prices

Confused by the market? Is inventory on the increase? What about sales? Are New Listings down? And how can sales be steady if inventory is down so much, especially when compared with 2019?

Let’s try to address these questions.
Is inventory on the increase? This chart shows the daily SFH active inventory for Essex County.There was an interesting phenomenon at the end of June. The SF inventory dropped from 477 on June 24 to 315 on July 2. My guess is there were two factors at work- buyers wanting to get an offer accepted before July 4 – and sellers waiting until after that date to list.
There has also been a drop throughout August which may reflect sellers waiting until Labor Day to list. (more…)

Open Houses Labor Day weekend

Here are the Open Houses this weekend. Because of the quirks of MLS properties with OH’s both days so not show up in both days’ lists but do if you click on the individual properties. I will publish the updated list for Sunday tomorrow at 8 a.m.

Open Houses

Click on these links for details: (more…)

New Listings before Labor Day

Here are the latest New Listings:


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Essex County Inventory and Activity update

SFH Inventory as of September 1 dropped slightly from August 1 and still trails historic levels. See the chart and comment later in this article for more details.

Single Family Homes

Housing Inventory

 

Condos (more…)

Latest New Listing and Inventory Report

Here are the latest New Listings (the state of inventory is shown later in this article) :

Click these links for details: (more…)

Which country has the fastest growth in home prices?

According to data gathered by money.co.uk (no relation to money.com, but we should probably be friends or something), the country with the highest property price increase from 2010 to 2020 was Israel, where there was a staggering 346% rise in costs per square meter.

Switzerland and Germany come next, with increases of 166% and 162%, followed by the United States at 153%. Hungary, Slovakia, France, Portugal, Japan and the United Kingdom round out the rest of the top 10, all with average home price increases of at least 75%.

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Open Houses Sunday August 29

This is the updated list of today’s Open Houses:

Click on these links for details: (more…)

Property Insurance Costs Too Much? 7 Ways to Reduce It

When is the lowest-cost insurer not the lowest-cost insurer? When another company actually charges less because you bundled or installed security or did something else.

NEW YORK – The price of homeowners’ insurance is on the rise, and many owners may be looking for ways to reduce their high premiums. While discounts can vary greatly based on location, size, and age of the house, some credits may be available that could reduce some homeowners’ premiums by as much as thousands of dollars per year, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The average premium for a homeowner’s insurance policy increased 3.1% to $1,249 in 2018, the latest year for which data is available. Luxury homes tend to be much more costly to insure than standard homes since they’re larger and have more decorative features within.

Here are some ways homeowners may be able to save on their homeowners’ insurance costs: (more…)

Open Houses August 28/29

Here are the Open Houses this weekend. Because of the quirks of MLS properties with OH’s both days so not show up in both days’ lists but do if you click on the individual properties. I will publish the updated list for Sunday tomorrow at 8 a.m.

Open Houses
Click on these links for details: (more…)

New Listings week ending August 27

Here are the latest New Listings:


(more…)

Latest New Listings and Inventory Report

Here are the latest New Listings (the state of inventory is shown later in this article) :

Click these links for details: (more…)

Is Your Home (and Home Insurance) Ready for Extreme Weather?

Hurricanes. Heat waves. Earthquakes. Tornadoes. Today’s headlines are awash in extreme weather, and whether you blame climate change or just plain bad luck, the simple truth is that the damage from these disasters is impossible to ignore.

Realtor.com® teamed up with HarrisX to conduct a poll of 3,026 adults on their extreme weather concerns and homeowners insurance know-how—and the results suggest that many Americans may be more vulnerable than we think.

Here are some of the key highlights: (more…)

Open Houses Sunday August 22

This list is current as of 7:30 am according to MLS:

Click on these links for details: (more…)

What is happening to Housing Inventory?

“The epic housing shortage that began before the pandemic and then was exacerbated by it may finally be starting to ease up. More supply is suddenly coming on the market, which will certainly help frustrated buyers and could, in the longer term, take some of the heat out of home prices.”(CNBC)

Articles such as this one have appeared on a number of occasions in recent weeks. It is, of course, inevitable that the year-on-year decline in inventory will end at some point, but an increase from an extremely low level does not take the market supply into one of abundance!

Inventory
Let us look at Essex County and a few of the North Shore towns and compare inventory levels for the last three years:

This table clearly shows that while inventory may be increasing in places from last year’s levels, it is still way below that of 2019.

 

Supply
While I believe that the old metric of 6 months of supply representing a housing market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers may be out of sate with the speed at which buyers become aware of new listings these days, it is still the measure most widely quoted. This table, showing inventory as of August 1 and sales through July 31, demonstrates just how much the market remains weighted in favour of sellers:

Comment
As the year-on-year declines inevitably come to an end, so we will see more commentary about the increase in supply. But…. we are starting from an incredibly low level, so even if inventory were suddenly to double, it would still represent only 2 months of supply.
And right now, there are so many variables – new COVID restrictions, back to school, etc. – that any projection is more guess than forecast.
One factor that could be significant is the psychological impact played by press reports of increasing inventory. For the last year one of the main driving forces behind the frenzied bidding wars has been FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
If FOMO declines we could see a more stable market.
But there are too many unknowns – both the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns – to be confident of any prediction.

Read these recent articles:
Is the increase in Inventory for real?
Team Harborside recognized on America’s Best Real Estate Professionals list
Are mortgage rates heading up or down?
Essex County 2021 Residential Property Tax Rates: a Town by Town guide
Naples market summary in June

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Andrew Oliver
Sales Associate | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
REALTOR®

Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205

www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com

www.OliverReportsFL.com<

Open Houses O Henri

Here are the Open Houses scheduled this weekend. As we remember Hurricane Bob, which arrived 30 years ago this week, we ae looking out for Henri, which may affect some of tomorrow’s Open Houses. I will publish an updated list for Sunday tomorrow at 8 a.m. Stay safe!!


Click on these links for details: (more…)