New Listings in School Vacation week
Still very few New Listings:

Click on these links for details: (more…)
Open Houses weekend February 25/26
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses (an updated list for Sunday will be posted tomorrow at 8 a.m.):

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
Mozart Requiem: First Rehearsal TONIGHT!
Registration and the first rehearsal will take place at 7:30 p.m. today, Wednesday, Feb. 22 in the Parish Hall of Old North Church.
Subsequent rehearsals will take place every Wednesday evening from 7:30 to 9 p.m. until the April 2 performance.
Go HERE for more details
The centerpiece of the Lenten Choral Concert will be the “Requiem in D” by W.A. Mozart, universally recognized as among the most poignant and breathtakingly beautiful works of the sacred choral repertoire.
Maria van Kalken, director of the Old North Festival Chorus and minister of music at Old North Church, extends a warm and enthusiastic welcome to all singers to join the chorus for its annual Lenten Choral Concert, which will be the first time the chorus has performed with full orchestra in person since March 2019.
Celebrating her 34th season as director of the Festival Chorus, van Kalken has planned a memorable choral concert to take place at 7:30 p.m. Sunday, April 2, Palm Sunday (more…)
New Listings mid-week February 22
The weather may fluctuate but the number of New Listings is consistently low:

Click on these links for details: (more…)
All invited to join Old North Festival Chorus in post-pandemic return
Registration and the first rehearsal will take place at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 22 in the Parish Hall of Old North Church.
Subsequent rehearsals will take place every Wednesday evening from 7:30 to 9 p.m. until the April 2 performance.
The centerpiece of the Lenten Choral Concert will be the “Requiem in D” by W.A. Mozart, universally recognized as among the most poignant and breathtakingly beautiful works of the sacred choral repertoire.
Maria van Kalken, director of the Old North Festival Chorus and minister of music at Old North Church, extends a warm and enthusiastic welcome to all singers to join the chorus for its annual Lenten Choral Concert, which will be the first time the chorus has performed with full orchestra in person since March 2019.
Celebrating her 34th season as director of the Festival Chorus, van Kalken has planned a memorable choral concert to take place at 7:30 p.m. Sunday, April 2, Palm Sunday (more…)
Open Houses Sunday February 19
Here are today’s Open Houses:

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
New Listings week ending February 17
The number of New Listings is still tiny:

Click on these links for details: (more…)
Open Houses weekend February 18/19
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses (an updated list for Sunday will be posted tomorrow at 8 a.m.):

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
New Listings mid-week February 15
The temperature may be on the rise – but not the number of New Listings:

Click on these links for details: (more…)
What drives Mortgage Rates in one chart
I can explain as often as I do that the 30-year Fixed rate Mortgage (FRM) is based upon the yield on the US 10-year Treasury (10T), not the Federal Reserve’s Fed Funds rate (FFR), but still I read regularly comments such as “mortgage rates will move up after the Fed increased its interest rate.”
Look at this chart for the last few months, the dates being those when the Federal Reserve increased its interest rate:

Note the correlation between the 10T (red line) and FRM (blue) – and the lack of correlation between FFR and FRM.
Let’s look at this another way, the spread (difference) between the FRM and 10T and between FRM and FFR:

Over the last 5 months, the spread between FRM and 10T has been in a tight band between 2.69% and 2.85%, while that between FRM and FFR has dropped by a huge 1.7%.
For a more detailed explanation of what drives mortgage rates – and why the FRM will fall at some point – read Why Mortgage Rates Will Fall
And these recent articles: (more…)
Open Houses Sunday February 12
Here are today’s Open Houses:

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
Essex County 2022 Housing Market Review
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After sharp increases Year-over-Year (YOY) in Q2 and Q3, the median SFH price in Essex County showed a more modest increase (YOY) in Q4, and also showed the usual seasonal decline from Q3 into Q4. Overall, the median price increased 5% for the year to $640,000, taking the increase in the last 3 years to 35%. Reflecting the low levels of inventory recently, SFH sales declined 11% in H1 and 18% in H2.

The share of sales over $600,000 increased from 52% in 2021 to 58% in 2022, driving the median price for the year well over $600,000.

Condos
The median condo sale price moved more steadily upwards in 2022, increasing by 11% in both H1 and H2, and by 34% since 2019. Sales fell 11% in H1 but by a startling 27% in H2. It seems likely that the increase in mortgage rates had a bigger impact on Condo sales – often bought as a first home with a significant mortgage – than on SFH sales, where mortgages – especially at the higher-end – tend to be less important with many buyers using cash or a large down-payment. (more…)
New Listings week ending February 10
The temperature may have risen this week – but not the number of New Listings:

Click on these links for details: (more…)
Open Houses weekend February 11/12
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses (an updated list for Sunday will be posted tomorrow at 8 a.m.):

Click on these links for details:
Marblehead Open Houses
Swampscott Open Houses
Salem Open Houses
Beverly Open House
And these recent articles: (more…)
How Swampscott’s FY2022 Property Tax is Calculated
Swampscott’s residential tax rate will drop from $13.80 in Fiscal Year 2021 to $12.83 in FY 2022 (and down from a high of $18.84 in FY 2013). The FY 2022 rate will be the lowest since 2006.
Commercial and industrial property is surcharged at 170%, as in FY 2021, resulting in a tax rate of $23.20, down from $24.90 in FY 2021 (and a high of $35.02 in FY 2013).
The average SFH tax bill has been flat in recent years:

“Every year since 2017, Swampscott’s average, single-family home tax bill has dropped or stayed level – and that’s unique, exceptional,” said Town Administrator Sean Fitzgerald. “You won’t be able to find another community in the commonwealth that has spent as much time really trying to find balance and stability. Many peer communities have increased their taxes every year over the past four years.”
How is the rate calculated?
The method of calculating the tax rate is quite simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s tax levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any new growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new maximum tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt.
Note that in recent years, Swampscott has not assessed the maximum allowed under this formula, a decision that has reduced the tax bill for residents.
Here are the numbers for FY 2021 and FY 2022, remembering that the FY 2022 runs from July 2021 to June 2022.

The Tax Rate
The actual tax rate depends upon the total Assessed Value of all property: residential, and commercial, industrial and personal (CIP). The tax rate is calculated by dividing the total dollar amount to be raised from each class by the Assessed Value of each class. Thus, the headline tax rate will also fluctuate depending upon the direction of Assessed Values.
In simplistic terms, if we assume that the $ amount to be raised increases by a little more than 2 1/2% each year, then if the average Assessed Value also increases by a little more than 2 1/2% the tax rate will be unchanged. If the increase in Assessed Values is less than 2 1/2%, then the tax rate will rise. And if the increase in Assessed Values is more than 2 1/2% then the tax rate will fall. In recent years Assessed Values have been increasing significantly more than 2 1/2% allowing for the tax rate to decline sharply.
Looking at the Swampscott residential tax rate, in FY 2021 it was $13.80, achieved by dividing $43.7 million raised from residential homeowners by the residential AV of $3.2 billion. In FY 2022 the amount to be raised from residential taxpayers is set to increase slightly to $44.7 million, but because the total residential AV increased by 10% to $3.5 billion, the headline tax rate has dropped to $13.20, the lowest figure since 2006.
Comment
The residential real estate market in Swampscott was stable in 2020 (and 2020 prices are the basis for the FY 2022 tax rate), with the median price of Single Family Homes sold rising by 2.1%. Sales in any year represent only a small percentage of the total stock so it does not follow that assessed values calculated by the town will mirror these movements.
As to the tax rate for FY 2023, 2022 ( the basis for FY 2021) is a different story with the median Single Family price increasing 16% in the first half of the year. The actual rate will depend on a number of factors: the amount of debt service, how much of the maximum tax levy is assessed, and the shift to the CIP class being three of them. But unless there is a dramatic change in the market in the second half of 2021 the likelihood is that the actual tax rate will decline significantly in FY2023.
From a residential real estate perspective, the substantial decline in the tax rate in recent years and the stability in tax bills are both very welcome news and are clearly encouraging more people to decide both to live and work in Swampscott.
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
__________________
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR® | Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.AndrewOliverRealtor.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com
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