Housing Inventory continues to decline
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale at the beginning of December in both Essex County and Massachusetts has fallen by nearly a quarter over the last two years, with most of that decline coming in the last year, as shown in the charts below: (more…)
Housing Inventory and Supply: a town by town guide
This report has two parts. In the first I show the inventory of Single Family Homes SFH) for sale compared with this time for the last two years; and in the second I show how many months supply those numbers represent.
Overall in Essex County the inventory of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale as we head into Labor Day weekend is down 21% from a year ago and down 28% from this time in 2014. The numbers for Massachusetts overall are very similar: down 21% from last year and down 26% from 2014.
The supply, based upon sales for the last 12 months (L12M), in Essex County, has dropped from 4.2 months in 2014 to 3.6 months in 2015 and to just 2.6 months currently. Massachusetts overall has seen a similar drop from 5.1 months to 4.5 and now just 3.2 months. Bear in mind that a housing market is generally deemed to be in balance between buyers and sellers when supply is at 6 months. When the inventory is less than 6 months, as now, it is called a sellers’ market.Like now.
Inventory
Just 4 towns – Beverly, Essex, Lynnfield and Topsfield – show an increase in supply, mostly insignificant, compared with a year ago, and only 3 – Andover, Middleton and Newburyport – an increase from 2014.
Supply
I have shown two numbers for each town for each year: supply based upon the last 3 months (L3M) sales and on the L12M. The market in Massachusetts is seasonal: June-August typically sees the highest number of sales in any 3 month period, so using that number alone would give the impression of tighter supply than using the L12M. Nevertheless, L3M does give a very current picture of supply.
Comment
There is a saying that all real estate is local. While I agree with that when it comes to buying a particular house, it is also valuable to know and understand what is happening in the broader market. If, for example, you are looking to buy in a town with seemingly adequate supply, it is important to know that throughout Essex County and Massachusetts supply is very tight, and therefore ask questions about the market in the town with higher supply. Thee may well be a reason, and knowing the broader trend will alert you to ask questions.
Overall, as I have been saying for some time now, the economy is doing ok, mortgage rates are close to record lows, inventory is low – all the ingredients for a continuing steadily improving housing market. It will be interesting to see if the forthcoming elections cause some slow down in the next couple of months.
Here is a spreadsheet Essex_For Sale_Supply_Sep_2_2014_2015_2016_towns which combines both the inventory and supply numbers for each town. I can provide a more detailed analysis of any town on request.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Flash Mid-year housing report
The headline for the first 6 months of 2016 is that sales of both Single Family Homes (SFH) and Condos in Essex County and Massachusetts were up by 12-18% compared with 2015, while inventory is down 13-23%.
This report shows current inventory, compared with sales in the first 6 months of the year, for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County and for Essex County and Massachusetts overall.
Summary
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Single Family Homes
I have used sales for the first 6 months of the year to calculate current supply (the number of months current inventory would last at the rate of sales in the first 6 months). The market is generally considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months supply. Less than that favours sellers, more than that favours buyers.
For both Essex County and MA the supply is less than 4 months, indicating a market favouring sellers. Within Essex County there are some significant variations. Manchester stands out with nearly 13 months of supply, with only Gloucester, Ipswich, Middleton, Nahant, Rockport, Wenham and West Newbury, joining it with 6 months or more of supply.
Many more towns have very tight supply positions, with 6 towns – Danvers, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lynn, Peabody and Salem – having less than 2 months of supply:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Condos
The condo market is even tighter with just 2.5 months’ supply in Essex County and 2.3 months in Massachusetts overall. It is so tight that only Rockport, which is not a condo town, has more than 6 months of supply.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Comment
These numbers clearly show the pattern that sales are up and inventory down pretty well across the board. With mortgage rates challenging all-time lows, and the economy growing steadily, if not strongly, the outlook should be for continued strength in the housing market.
A necessary caveat is that world events – think Brexit – may cause the world economy to slow, while here in the US the Presidential election will feature more prominently in the news come Labor Day. This may not be the time to be exceptionally brave, but it is may also not be the time to be too cautious.
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing inventory has dropped since 2013_14
This report shows the decline in inventory in recent years, first for local towns:
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
And for Essex County and Massachusetts as a whole:
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Housing Inventory today, by price and town, versus a year ago
This article compares today’s inventory, by price, compared with that of a year ago.We are now past the vagaries of winter weather and the dates of Easter and Passover, thus making the comparisons like for like for probably the first time this year. I will look first at Essex County and Massachusetts for the big picture, followed by Marblehead, Swampscott, Salem, Beverly and Lynn, adding comments where appropriate.
Overall, the story is of a decline in inventory at lower price levels and an increase at higher price points, a trend consistent with a rising market.
Massachusetts and Essex County
Overall inventory is down in the entire State by 9% for SFHs and 6% for condos; in Essex County the decline is 10% for SFHs and 12% for condos. But…. there is a marked difference between supply under $500,000 and above that figure, with large declines in supply below $500,000 and increases above that figure, particularly at the top end.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Marblehead
While Marblehead is one of the few towns to show an increase in inventory over 2015, it still shows a sharp drop from the 92 and 100 SFHs for sales on this date in 2013 and 2014, while condo inventory is more in line with numbers from those years. The increase in SFH inventory is concentrated in the $750,000 – $999,999 and over $2 million brackets for SFHs and, rather surprisingly, in condos under $250,000.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Swampscott
The story in Swampscott continues to be the incredibly low level of supply, most markedly for SFHs below $500,000, where the number available has collapsed from 25 to just 3. And there are just 5 condos for sale in the entire town.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Salem
While overall supply in Salem is down just slightly from last year, here again we see declines in inventory at the lower price levels:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Beverly
The total number of SFHs for sale is much the same as last year but the mix has changed, with a huge drop under $400,000 and increases in most of the higher ranges. Condos for sale under $250,000 plunged from 16 to just 4.
Source:MLS, Oliver Reports
Lynn
The decline is most pronounced in SFHs under $300,000 where supply has more than halved from 48 to 23.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
If you are considering selling your home please contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com for a free market analysis and explanation of the outstanding marketing program I offer.
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
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