Oliver Reports Massachusetts
The reliable, informed source for Marblehead and North Shore real estate news
Menu
  • About Me
  • Weekly Newsletters
  • Mortgage Rates and Economic Commentary
  • Property Taxes
  • About Marblehead
  • Market Reports
    • 2024 Market Reports
    • 2023 Market Reports
    • 2022 Market Reports
    • 2021 Market Reports
    • Marblehead
    • Swampscott
    • Beverly
    • Salem
    • Essex County
  • Boston
  • Massachusetts
  • The Luxury Market
  • Flood insurance

Sales Up, Prices Down After 131-Month Streak

March 22, 2023 · by Andrew Oliver · in Market Reports, National News

Existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S. regions – but they also all saw year-over-year declines.

February median existing home prices fell for the first time in 131 months– almost eleven years – according to NAR. The median existing-home price for all housing types was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700), as prices climbed in the Midwest and South yet waned in the Northeast and West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – climbed 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February. Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022).

Total housing inventory at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.

Properties typically remained on the market for 34 days in February, up from 33 days in January and 18 days in February 2022. Still, most homes (57%) sold in February were on the market for less than a month.

Buyer types (more…)

“Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve

March 21, 2021 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News, Mortgage and Finance News

Former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin, Jr famously said: “The Federal Reserve…is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.”

This week, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell in effect said “party on, dude.” As the New York Times commented: “The official view of the central bank’s leaders now is that it has been an overly stingy host, taking away the punch bowl so quickly that parties were dreary, disappointing affairs.
The job now is to persuade the world that it really will leave the punch bowl out long enough, and spiked adequately — that it will be a party worth attending. They insist punch bowl removal will be based on actual realized inebriation of the guests, not on forecasts of potential future problematic levels of drunkenness.”

Chairman Powell’s comments
“We will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes.”
“We’re not going to act pre-emptively based on forecasts for the most part, and we’re going to wait to see actual data. And I think it will take people time to adjust to that, and the only way we can really build the credibility of that is by doing it.”
“People start businesses, they reopen restaurants, the airlines will be flying again — all of those things will happen, and it will turn out to be a one-time bulge in prices, but it won’t change inflation going forward.”

Interest rates and inflation
The big questions overhanging financial markets are what will happen to inflation and to interest rates.
(more…)

So, how much have house prices gone up?

September 20, 2020 · by Andrew Oliver · in Boston housing market, Essex County Housing News, Marblehead News, Market Reports, Swampscott Housing Market

Anecdotally, we have all heard about how prices outside Boston are booming, as people move out of the city, but how much have prices actually gone up?

Because small numbers can – and do – produce misleading statistics, I look for large numbers, as in my quarterly reports. I have, however, calculated the monthly median prices for Essex County SFHs and for Boston condos. After these charts, I will also give an early indication of what the third quarter will look like in Marblehead and Swampscott.

Essex County SFH
This chart shows the monthly median prices for the last 4 years. The blue top line is 2020. After being around $500,000 for the first few months, the median price moved to $545,000 in July and to $575,000 in August. These are, of course, monthly numbers which can fluctuate, but it is also worth noting that the numbers for August refer to sales contracted in June for the most part.

Home prices

This table shows the quarterly progression. Q2 and Q3 are normally the highest quarters for the year.

Median Prices

Boston Condos
This chart is less clear, but the table below shows that median prices are little changed from 2019 YTD and have been declining quarter by quarter in 2020.

Boston Condos

Marblehead and Swampscott
After being below $700,000 in Q1 and Q2, the Q3 median SFH price will blow through not $700,000 but $800,000 – and comfortably at that.
In Swampscott, however, the median SFH is likely to be similar to the 2019 level. Some interesting analysis when I write my Q3 reports.

Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Housing Inventory chronically low while demand is strong
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205

www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”

“Home prices drop for the 12th consecutive month.” Really?

June 8, 2019 · by Andrew Oliver · in Latest News, Market Reports

The above headline is from a recent article written by a mortgage broker. (Not the “really?” That came from me.)

The next headline in the article was: Appreciation slowdown hits the one-year mark.

And then it read: According to new data from CoreLogic, March marked one full year of slowing growth for U.S. home prices. They rose just 3.7 percent between March 2018 and March 2019 (my italics).   

Ah, so now we are getting to the truth. The rate of increase has been slowing for the last year, but prices are still 3.7% higher than they were a year ago.

Let’s look at two charts. The first, the point in the headline (however incorrectly worded) shows the rate of growth:
Home prices

The second shows actual home prices:
Home prices

Now, when I buy a product, let’s say a pineapple , I ask “what’s the price?” I don’t ask: “how much has the cost of this pineapple gone up in the last year?” Unfortunately, I cannot buy the pineapple at last year’s prices – I have to pay today’s price. Same with houses.

The annual compound rate of growth in national house prices from 2000-2018 was 3.6%. None of us buys a “national average” house nor pays a “national average” price. As buyers and sellers know only too well, many factors – many of them emotional – go into the decision to buy or sell a house. And for the vast majority of people buying a house is buying a home, a place to bring up a family.

I have been saying consistently since late last year that my outlook for 2019 was for a slowing, but still growing economy and, locally, for a stable housing market.

In last week’s article Why are mortgage rates plummeting? I quoted the Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board: “The biggest economic risk of a Donald Trump Presidency has always been that his trade obsessions would swamp the benefits of tax reform and deregulation. For two years he has kept his worst protectionist impulses mostly in check, but as he seeks a second term we are now seeing Tariff Man unchained. Where he stops nobody knows, which is bad for the economy and perhaps his own re-election.”

And here is another quote this week from the same source: “The stock market on Friday rallied as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to counter trade uncertainty. But as we learned in the Obama years, monetary policy alone can’t overcome bad fiscal, trade or regulatory policy. The May jobs report is a flashing yellow light that Mr. Trump needs to settle his trade wars and get back to promoting growth.”

The reason that interest rates and mortgage rates are dropping (the Freddie Mac 30 year FRM was 3.82% this week) is the slowing economy and increasing uncertainty caused by the President’s tariff obsession. Should the economic numbers continue to herald a significant slowdown the Federal Reserve is indeed likely to cut rates to try to stimulate the economy. Last year the Fed increased interest rates in order to prevent the huge tax cuts over-stimulating the economy and causing inflation. I think the Fed did a good job last year and I would expect it again to act to add stimulus to try to counteract the negative impact of tariffs and tariff threats.

I shall end by repeating the last sentence of last week’s article: “The natural tendency and hope is that all these issues will blow over quickly and not have a damaging effect on the economy. But the bond market is sending out warning signals.”

Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®

Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]

Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

Are home prices falling?

August 27, 2016 · by Andrew Oliver · in Market Reports, Massachusetts Housing News, National News

Sometimes I think headline writers are deliberately trying to convey a false impression.

Take this will home price appreciation fall? article in the Daily Dose. Ok be honest, if you read this headline quickly, would you think home prices were going up or falling?

Rising home prices_75

or Falling home prices_2 (more…)

8 Predictors of Housing Prices

December 14, 2015 · by Andrew Oliver · in Market Reports, National News

The National Association of Realtors has published a report looking at different factors as predictors of housing prices.

Indicators

The study looks at 8 factors:
– gas prices
– proximity to Trader Joe’s or Whole Foods
– proximity to sports facilities
– legalization of marijuana
– effect of temperature change
– nearness to casinos
– closeness to highways
– whether there are trees on the street

Click here to read the report and find out how these factors affect housing prices.

If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].

Read Which broker will actually sell my home?

Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated

You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.

@OliverReports

Essex County town by town home prices compared with the peak

July 25, 2015 · by Andrew Oliver · in Essex County Housing News, Market Reports, Massachusetts Housing News

In a week when the National Association of Realtors reported that nationally home price have surpassed their 2006 peak I have looked at median SFH prices town by town in Essex County for the first half of 2015 compared with the first half of 2006.These numbers show that median prices in both Essex County and Massachusetts are back to 2006 levels, but with wide variations from town to town.

Here’s the table: (more…)

Links

  • Simplifying the Market

Recent Comments

  • May Inventory shows no improvement - Oliver Reports Massachusetts on “Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve
  • April Inventory shows little improvement - Oliver Reports Massachusetts on “Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve
  • March Inventory shows no improvement - Oliver Reports Massachusetts on “Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve
  • February Inventory as low as this weekend's temperature - Oliver Reports Massachusetts on “Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve
  • November Inventory stays high - Oliver Reports Massachusetts on “Party on, dude” says the Federal Reserve

SEARCH_MLS Listings

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 786 other subscribers

Worth Reading

Which broker should I hire to sell my house?

Archives

  • May 2025
  • April 2025
  • March 2025
  • February 2025
  • January 2025
  • December 2024
  • November 2024
  • October 2024
  • September 2024
  • August 2024

Categories

  • Beverly Housing Market
  • Boston
  • Boston housing market
  • By The Numbers Posts
  • Essex County Housing News
  • Florida real estate
  • Home maintenenance
  • Housing Inventory
  • Latest News
  • Life Style
  • Luxury Property
  • Lynn Housing Market
  • Marblehead News
  • Market Reports
  • Massachusetts Housing News
  • Mortgage and Finance News
  • National News
  • New Listings
  • North Shore housing market
  • Open Houses
  • Property taxes
  • Salem housing market
  • Swampscott Housing Market

Copyright © 2025 Oliver Reports Massachusetts

Powered by WordPress and Ascetica