Inventory chronically low; demand booming
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) receiving offers, while still down Year-on-Year, has increased sharply in recent weeks while inventory has been well down all year, indicating that homes are selling very quickly.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month since July 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a consistent decline:
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory has been declining since October 2019.
Supply
Once again, the pattern of supply is consistent: very scarce at lower price levels and abundant at the top end:
Comment
Housing statistics for properties sold are a rear-view mirror, telling us what happened 6-8 weeks earlier.
For relevant statistics about the current level of market activity I look at both inventory (which I report monthly in this article) and the number of houses receiving Accepted Offers week by week, a number I report at the beginning of the week for the prior week. (Here is a link to the most recent report Accepted Offers held back by shortage of inventory).
The number of Accepted Offers in June showed a Year-on-Year increase as we are seeing fresh demand from people wanting to move out of Boston in addition to the demand that was already present, as both buyers and sellers have become comfortable with the new protocol in place for buying and selling properties.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: demand exceeds supply = rising prices.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates hit all-time low – again
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
List of available properties for sale
While it is human nature to focus on properties new to the market, it is also important for buyers to check the entire inventory. Very often – for no apparent reason – houses get overlooked. I am posting each week details of all houses and condos currently available for sale (and the links below continually update). Different arrangements are being made for viewing so please contact me to see what is possible. The market is very active at the moment with the number of Accepted Offers in the last 4 weeks almost back to 2019’s level, despite the fact the inventory is down 40%.
Marblehead SFHs For Sale
Marblehead Condos For Sale
Swampscott SFH For Sale
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Salem SFHS For Sale
Salem Condos For Sale
Beverly SFHs For Sale
Beverly Condos For Sale
Lynn SFHs For Sale
Lynn Condos For Sale
Inventory plummets while demand increases
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Accepted Offers held back by shortage of inventory
The number of Accepted Offers (AO) for SFHs received in Essex County last week increased modestly to a 2020 high of 162.
This is the chart I post each week showing the weekly numbers compared with 2019. Note that Holy Week was week 14 in 2020 and week 16 in 2019. To make it easier to read I have started the chart at week 9 (March 6, 2020; March 8, 2019):
And this is the percentage change compared with the same week in 2019.
The jump in week 16 ( April 24) was a result of the timing of Holy Week, while the increase in the last week compared with a strangely low number in 2019. More relevantly, the improving trend is clear. A better indicator is that the 3-week average of 157 is just 6% lower than the 67 in 2019.
And… look at this table:
Inventory is down more than 40% from last year – and has been running 30-40% below last year’s numbers all year – yet the number of Accepted Offers recently has been quite close to last year’s levels,
Comment
The real estate industry – professionals involved in transactions, as well as buyer and sellers – has adapted to the COVID-19 world. Buyers are out there, inventory remains low (read Inventory plummets while demand increases) and bidding wars are back. In fact, with inventory down 40% YOY it is clear that properties are now selling more quickly than they were a year ago.
Thus buyers need to have all their ducks in line – most importantly, a current pre-approval letter – before considering making an offer.
Also, bear in mind that some sellers – a diminishing number as confidence in the measures now in place for viewing become established- are requesting that their properties not be listed in MLS, so if you are checking on Zillow you might not be seeing all that is available.: you need to speak to a real estate agent.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates hit all-time low – again
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Inventory plummets while demand increases
In summary, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) receiving offers in the last three weeks has been nearly back to 2019 levels, while inventory is down 35-40%, indicating that homes are selling very quickly.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline:
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Supply
Once again, the pattern of supply is consistent: very scarce at lower price levels and abundant at the top end:
Comment
Housing statistics for properties sold are a rear-view mirror, telling us what happened 6-8 weeks earlier.
For relevant statistics about the current level of market activity I look at both inventory (which I report monthly in this article) and the number of houses receiving Accepted Offers week by week, a number I report at the beginning of the week for the prior week. (Here is a link to the most recent report Accepted Offers held back by shortage of inventory).
After dropping by 50% YoY in early April, the number of Accepted Offers is now running close to 2019 levels. We are seeing increased demand from people wanting to move out of Boston in addition to the demand that was already there. There is a new protocol in place for buying and selling properties, one with which both sides are increasingly comfortable with.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates hit all-time low – again
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Current inventory of SFHs and Condos
In the continuing absence of Open Houses in Marblehead and Swampscott (there are a handful in Salem, Beverly and Lynn), I am replacing the normal Open House post with one showing details of all houses and condos currently available for sale (and the links below continually update). Different arrangements are being made for viewing so please contact me to see what is possible. The market is very active at the moment with the number of Accepted Offers in the last week nearly back to 2019’s level.
Marblehead SFHs For Sale
Marblehead Condos For Sale
Swampscott SFH For Sale
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Salem SFHS For Sale
Salem Condos For Sale
Beverly SFHs For Sale
Beverly Condos For Sale
Lynn SFHs For Sale
Lynn Condos For Sale
The number of Accepted Offers is increasing
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
The ever shrinking Housing Inventory
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
Properties currently available for sale
In the continuing absence of Open Houses, I am replacing the normal Open House post with one showing details of all houses and condos currently available for sale. Different arrangements are being made for viewing so please contact me to see what is possible. But properties are still selling in this environment.
Click on these links for full details of each of the properties:
Marblehead SFHs For Sale
Marblehead Condos For Sale
Swampscott SFH For Sale
Swampscott Condos For Sale
Salem SFHS For Sale
Salem Condos For Sale
Beverly SFHs For Sale
Beverly Condos For Sale
Lynn SFHs For Sale
Lynn Condos For Sale
Accepted Offers: the Curve is Flattening
A Calmer Mortgage Market
Recession and Recovery
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Inventory continues to shrink
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June). (more…)
No Open Houses Sunday March 29
Just a reminder that there are no Open Houses today. Instead, this shows all houses and condos currently available for sale. Different arrangements are being made for viewing – some are video only – so please contact me to see what is possible. (more…)
Housing market inventory shrinks even further in March
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated in recent months:
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 1.5 months ( a market has traditionally been considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies widely by price, as shown in this table:
While inventory early in the year is normally low, a feature of 2020 so far is the speed at which new listings, if priced appropriately, are selling. If you are thinking of selling, now is a really good time.
The conclusion remains that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Mortgage rates after the collapse of bond yields
Will house prices continue to rise in 2020?
Are You Thinking of Selling in 2020?
Swampscott homeowners: now is a GREAT time to sell
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory slump continues
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
Housing Inventory slumps further
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2017. In the first chart the number for January 2020 -554 – shows the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing until June).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month from July to December in 2019.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated, although it moderated slightly in January.
These two charts show numbers since 2017 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in January 2020 YOY while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory continuing to increase in 2019 YOY in July and August, steadying in September, and then resuming the decline in October.
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 1 month ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Also bear in mind that the January inventory is always the lowest for the year so while the position is dire, it may not be quite a dire as these numbers suggest.
Nevertheless, the conclusion remains that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory decline accelerates in December
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at less than 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramatically swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory declines yet again
Single Family Homes (SFH)
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline, which has also accelerated.
These two charts show numbers since 2016 for January to June, and July to December:
Comment
While the overall supply of SFHs in Essex County remains very low at just 2 months ( a market is considered to be in equilibrium between buyers and sellers when there is 6 months of supply) the position varies greatly by price, as shown in this table:
Thus, the conclusion is that the market remains in favour of sellers right up to $1.5 million, but above that dramaticallys swings in favour of buyers.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
Housing Inventory decline accelerates in October
After years of decline, the number of Single Family Homes (SFH) for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. Since then the decline has resumed and, in fact, accelerated, as this table shows:
Single Family Homes (SFH)
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2016. The far right line in each column, representing 2019, shows the increase in the first half of the year followed by the resumption of the decline.
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, while the last two months have shown just a modest decline. The condo market sees more supply in terms of new construction and conversions than does the SFH market.
Comment
I will publish a report this weekend analysing whether the decline in inventory is an accurate comment on the market or whether it reflects a faster pace of sales. The preliminary look at median prices for Marblehead and Swampscott for the 9 months to September show prices in both markets increasing by a little under 2%. The market continues to look stable, despite the daily barrage of headline-grabbing news.
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
www.TeamHarborside.com
[email protected]
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
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