Lynn Q3 2018 Report: Prices Continue Upwards
(Click here to download a copy of this report.)
The median price of the SFHs sold in the first 9 Months of 2018 increased a further 5% to a new high of $352,500. (Numbers in bold represent record levels.) (more…)
Essex County Condo Market: very little supply at lower prices
This report compares the supply of condos available for sale now compared with the last two years in Essex County overall, together with the individual markets of Salem, Beverly and Lynn, the three largest condo towns nearby. Because sales are not always reported promptly in MLS, my reports on median prices in these markets will be published next week.
Essex County
The number of condos for sale throughout the 34 cities and towns of Essex County has dropped by 25% over the last year and by one-third compared with 2015. As we shall see – and as one would expect – the drop in supply is most marked at lower prices.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The number of condos for sale under $250,000 has plunged over the last two years from 280 to 179 to just 107. There has been a smaller drop in the $250-350,000 range, and above that the numbers are fairly flat.
Salem
The Salem condo market continues to be very active, while the number of condos for sale has dropped 60% over the last two years.
The story by price mirrors that of Essex County overall: a huge drop under $250,000; a large drop in the $250-350,000 range; and stable above that price. And there is activity at the higher prices: through 9 months Salem saw 101 condo sales above $350,000, yet there are currently just 12 for sale.
Beverly
The statistics for the condo market in Beverly are slewed by the 73 condos at Elliott Landing which came to the market starting in the spring of 2016. Now that these have been sold, the number of condos for sale has dropped back sharply.
Because of the impact of Elliott Landing, where condos sold for between $330,000 and $800,000, it is more relevant to compare today’s inventory with that of two years ago. We see that there are almost no condos under $250,000 and a small increase in the $250-350,000 range.
Lynn
The number of condos for sale in Lynn has also dropped sharply over the last two years.
The median price of the condos sold in Lynn has been close to – but never exceeded – $200,000. Until 2017, when the median price for the first 9 months reached $220,000. There are currently just 9 condos for sale in Lynn below $200,000 – down from 37 two years ago.
Comment
Further comment seems almost superfluous: the condo market in Essex County has been extremely active. Low supply and continued strong demand inevitably lead to higher prices. Preliminary numbers show that the median price throughout Essex County increased 10% in the first 9 months of the year. Check back for the full report next week.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
If you are looking to buy, I will contact you immediately when a house that meets your needs is available. In this market you need to have somebody looking after your interests.
Are you thinking about selling? Read Which broker should I choose to sell my house?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
@OliverReports
Lynn 2015 Condo Market Review: a remarkable recovery
This Lynn 2015 Condo Market review chronicles the remarkable recovery in the market from the depths of 2009.
Sales
Sales were in the low 100s before exploding in the 2003-2006 years. The collapse was even more dramatic, as sales fell from 399 in 2005 to just 99 in 2008. Since then, sales have been more stable, although the second half of 2015 saw a sharp increase.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Distressed Sales
Not only did the total number of sales plummet, but distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were almost half the total in the 2010-2012 period. Put another way, there were just 57 and 59 non-distressed sales in 2011 and 2012. In the last two years, distressed sales have fallen sharply to a much more modest share of the total.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Median Price
The first half of 2009 saw the bottom of the market, with the median price down 48% from the peak, and the year overall seeing a 39% decline. The market was remarkable stable in the 2010-2014 period as the distressed sales worked their way through the market, but 2015 saw a sharp jump, taking the median price back to within 10% of the peak.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
ASR*
One way I measure prices is by the ratio (ASR) of Assessed Value (AV) to Sales Price (SP). The ASR is the AV divided by the SP: if the SP is rising (prices going up), the ASR will fall.
Note that the ASR for Lynn Condos has fallen sharply since 2012. In 2015 the median condo selling price was 26% (100/89.5 – 1) above its Assessed Value.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
*Properties selling above their AV will have an ASR below 100%. What this means is that in a period of rising prices the ASR is likely to be falling. So what we, as homeowners, want is an ASR below 100% and falling.
Remember that AVs are a lagging indicator: the tax bills for FY2016 are based on actual sales in 2014. Thus the 2015 sales data, reported in this review, will be the basis for FY2017 assessments.
Summary
Lynn, the largest city in Essex County, “is an urban manufacturing and commercial center, densely populated and culturally diverse.” Lynn suffered more than any other town on the North Shore during the Great Recession, so it is heartening to see the strong recovery taking place in the real estate market.
The announcement that GE is relocating its corporate HQ to Boston is a reminder that GE built the first jet engine in Lynn, while as this post Lynn, Lynn, city of……. revitalization records there are plans for Lynn’s development.
All in all, the outlook is for continued improvement in the housing market in Lynn.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Read Which broker should I choose to sell my home?
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
You can REGISTER to receive email alerts of new posts on the right hand side of the home page at www.OliverReports.com.
@OliverReports
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