Survey: Sellers Waiting Out Pandemic Are Ready to List
Homeowners have had all the usual reasons to sell over the past two years – marriages, deaths, children, etc. – but many hunkered down during the pandemic, and some feared the housing market because selling might be easy but finding a new home? Not so much.
A survey conducted by HarrisX for realtor.com, however, suggests that many of those people might be planning to list their home in 2022, with 65% of them planning to do so this winter and spring. The survey of 2,583 consumers was conducted online in September-October 2021.
Many sellers, however, want to set an asking price higher than they think their home is worth, and they expect buyer bidding wars.
When will sellers list? (more…)
Farewell Omicron? Hello a more normal life?
The Deer Island treatment plant of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority reports COVID-19 in wastewater and the data is analysed by Biobot Analytics. Because this is real time information and covers all households – not just those who are tested or report self-testing results – it is considered both the most reliable source as well as being an early indicator of infections.
Here is the chart of recent history:
The chart is busy as it covers both the Southern and Northern sections of MWRA but this table shows the huge drop since the peak was recorded on January 5th: (more…)
February Inventory – Marco? Marco? Where are you?
There are 34 cities and towns in Essex County and, according to the 2019 US Census, some 202,000 owner-occupied housing units. As of February 1st there were just a combined 261 Single Family Homes and Condos available for sale – or 0.13% of the total.
Single Family Homes
Condos (more…)
Mid-week New Listings February 2
A small number of New Listings:
Click these links for details: (more…)
Is today the day you decide to move to Florida?
Epic storms are the subject of conversations for years to come. How many times today will you hear comparisons with and stories of the blizzard of ’78? I wasn’t in Boston for that one but I did “enjoy” the April Fool’s Day blizzard of ’97.
Funnily enough, a number of people decide after decades of living through New England winters that it is time to move to Florida.
If you find yourself in that camp, I can help.
Here is my guide to buying in Southwest Florida: Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida
And some year end reports:
Naples Year End Market Report by Location and Property Type
Bonita Springs 2021 Year End Market Report
Sanibel/ Captiva 2021 Market Report
And plenty more on my Southwest Florida blog OliverReportsFL.com, a sister blog to OliverReportsMA.com.
Come on down!
Andrew Oliver, M.B.E., M.B.A.
REALTOR®| Market Analyst | DomainRealty.com
Naples, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers
Andrew.Oliver@DomainRealtySales.com
m. 617.834.8205
www.MarbleheadSouth.com
www.OliverReportsFL.com
_____________
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
www.OliverReportsMA.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
New Listings mid-week
5 New Listings in Marblehead more than double inventory!
Click these links for details: (more…)
Can the Federal Reserve prevent a Recession?
The housing market is driven by the balance between supply and demand. Supply cannot be increased significantly quickly, so the only way for the booming housing market to slow is if demand drops. And the most likely causes for a drop in demand are either a major geopolitical development – such as Russia invading Ukraine and the US and its NATO partners deciding to respond militarily – or a recession.
Since World War II there has been a consistent pattern of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to control inflation and thereby triggering a recession. With the Fed finally acknowledging in late November that inflation was not transitory and committing to end its bond buying spree and also raise interest rates, will it be able to avoid a recession? Can this time be different?
The Boston Globe recently carried an excellent article on this subject by Jim Puzzanghera: ‘A hellishly difficult task.’ Can the Federal Reserve lower inflation without causing a recession?
“The virus is unpredictable. People’s responses to the virus are unpredictable. It’s not a garden variety business cycle by any means,” said Donald Kohn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank who served as Fed vice chair from 2006-10. “It’s much harder to peer into the future and know how to calibrate your monetary policy.”
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, a forecasting firm, was more blunt. “The Fed has a hellishly difficult task right now,” he said. “There is absolutely no history for the Fed to lean on to deal with this kind of inflation.”
Most economists predicted last spring that high inflation would be temporary, pointing to the supply chain problems caused by restarting the US and world economies. But some economists warned the $1.9 trillion COVID aid bill enacted last March risked fueling longer-lasting inflation by pumping too much money into the already recovering US economy.
By last June even I was writing: “Should inflation prove to be more persistent than the Fed expects, then it is likely that the Fed will have to start to increase interest rates sooner and move them up more quickly than it currently expects. And mortgage rates would follow.
The Fed’s two goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment are known collectively as the “dual mandate.” In explaining its policy of keeping interest rates low – in part by buying large quantities of Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities, the latter helping to keep mortgage rates low – the Fed refers to the still high level of unemployment.
I have to admit that I struggle to understand how low interest rates, which boost asset classes such as stock prices and real estate, are helping to boost employment. Lower interest rates benefit those who own assets which appreciate.
I would like to see the Fed start to reduce (taper) its bond buying, while encouraging Congress to focus on removing barriers to employment – by providing increased child care allowances, for example. In other words, deal directly with the problem rather than hoping that benefits will trickle down somehow.”
Some quotes (more…)
New Listings and Inventory Update
Still only a handful of New Listings (the state of inventory is shown later in this article, as is a link to my annual guide to property tax rates).
Click these links for details: (more…)
Lynn’s Housing Production Plan approved by State
The city’s new housing-production plan, Housing Lynn: A Plan for Inclusive Growth, has been approved by the Massachusetts Department of Community Development (DHCD).
The five-year plan was submitted to DHCD after it was approved by the City Council on Sept. 7 and the Planning Board on Oct. 12, after months of work and input with community members.
The approval allows the city to meet its affordable-housing needs, while also allowing for preferences in many state-housing grants and infrastructure programs.
The city has never had a comprehensive housing plan and now joins 168 other Massachusetts communities with approved housing-production plans that are making an effort to solve the state’s affordable-housing crisis.
Mayor Jared Nicholson said this approval by DHCD is another step in the right direction: “It continues the momentum that we have witnessed over the past few years during the development of the plan to address one of the top issues our residents face,” said Nicholson. “The preparation of the Housing Lynn plan relied heavily on feedback from Lynn residents and a detailed review of market conditions, and as we look towards the implementation of the recommendations, we expect that to continue. We know how important these recommended actions will be to supporting growth that benefits the whole city and the impact they can have for cost-burdened residents.” (more…)
Open Houses weekend January 15/16
Freezing temperatures, Omicron and tiny inventory are the backdrop to this weekend’s Open Houses.
Click on these links for details: (more…)
January Inventory – how low can you go?
After increasing somewhat – albeit from a very low base – in the first several months of 2021, the seasonal drop-off after October after was just as sharp as in prior years – and again this is a reduction from a low level. 2022 is starting off at a seemingly impossible even lower level.
Single Family Homes
The % decline is almost irrelevant. More relevant is the months of supply shown.
Inventory now has less than 1 months’ supply overall and is only over 1 month – but still far below the 6 months deemed to reflect a market in equilibrium – at prices over $1.5 million.
Condos (more…)
New Listings and Latest Inventory Update
Still only a handful of New Listings (the state of inventory is shown later in this article, as is a link to my annual guide to property tax rates).
Click these links for details: (more…)
Essex County 2022 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
Property tax rates for FY 2022 for all 34 cities and towns in Essex County have been certified. Below is a map, so that you can compare tax rates in neighboring towns, followed by the tax rates for each town the last 5 years. The first table shows the tax rates in alphabetical order, while the second lists them from low to high.
Tax rates for each town
Alphabetically (download a copy of this table by clicking here. (more…)
Essex County 2022 Commercial Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide
While most of us look at residential tax rates (read Essex County 2022 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide ) fewer consider commercial tax rates. Yet a healthy commercial business environment can contribute significantly to the attractiveness of a town. The map below shows commercial rates in each of Essex County’s 34 cities and towns, followed by a table showing commercial rates for each town.
Commercial rates for each town: (more…)
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