Are we already in a Recession?
In January this year I published an article asking Can the Federal Reserve prevent a Recession?
My question now is: Are we already in a Recession?
I think the answer is yes. Here is the evidence, in three charts: (more…)
Marblehead Facts and Figures Weekly Update
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Open Houses June 4/5
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses (an updated list will be published tomorrow at 8 a.m.):
Click on these links for details: (more…)
Marblehead Neck Oceanfront Open House TODAY
It has been 9 months since the last oceanfront house on Ocean Avenue sold and now comes this Wonderful opportunity to enjoy Marblehead living at its finest. There is one Open House today from 11:30 -1:00.
(more…)Marblehead Neck Oceanfront New Listing
It has been 9 months since the last oceanfront house on Ocean Avenue sold and now comes this Wonderful opportunity to enjoy Marblehead living at its finest.
Experience the breathtaking vistas and sounds of the sea with spectacular views from almost every room. The tastefully landscaped grounds feature an acre+ of rolling lawns and beautiful gardens leading to your own private gate allowing direct access to the rocks, ocean and beach.
The home offers plenty of space including 4 bedrooms with en-suite baths including a stunning master with luxurious spa-like bath and amazing views. Located in Marblehead – a unique town that embraces community and sea-side living.
Click here for full details and photos.
Please call me on 617.834.8205 to arrange a private showing.
And read these recent articles:
Why This Housing Market Is Not a Bubble Ready To Pop
Why are Mortgage Rates so high?
The Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates
How Marblehead’s 2022 Property Tax Rate is calculated
Essex County 2022 Property Tax Rates: Town by Town guide Guide to Buying and Selling in Southwest Florida
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, please contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver, M.B.E.,M.B.A.
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsMA.com
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReportsMA.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
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Andrew Oliver, M.B.E.,M.B.A.
Real Estate Advisor| Market Analyst | The Feins Group | thefeinsgroup.com
m.617.834.8205
www.OliverReportsFL.com
[email protected]
What Higher Mortgage Rates Mean for the Housing Market
The recent uptick in mortgage interest rates is having a chilling effect on home buyers at the moment, but Wharton real estate professor Benjamin Keys doesn’t expect that to last.
Mortgage interest rates have increased across all categories in the last several weeks, following the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2018 to fight inflation. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage topped 5% last week, compared with less than 3% a year ago. The jump corresponded with a 40% drop in mortgage applications from a year ago.
“Aside from a few days in 2018, we haven’t seen rates this high persistently since around 2011,” Keys said. “Mortgage rates are the real focus among a lot of people right now, and trying to understand what impact [that is] going to have on housing markets.”
Sky-high rents have been spiraling faster than home prices in the last decade, which will continue to push many Americans toward home ownership. With a fixed-rate mortgage, they can budget a stable monthly housing expense for the next 15 or 30 years. (more…)
5 Crafting Ideas Perfect for Spring
Spring is the season of renewal, and it’s the perfect time to get a fresh start. Whether your home needs some updated decor or you are looking for a new hobby to help you pass away those April showers, you may want to think about taking on a craft project this spring.
Here are a few unique spring craft ideas for adults:
Wood Slice Bunny Rabbit Decorations
If you have some leftover firewood after a long and cold winter, you can put some of those logs to use with a springtime craft. You can slice various pieces of wood in order to craft bunny decorations that are both seasonal and cheerful. Full circular and oval logs can be used for the bunny’s tummy and head, while slices cut in half can be creatively placed to become ears and feet. Finish off the craft with a pastel colored bow, and you can instantly bring spring inside your home with this piece of festive decor.
Cup and Saucer Bird Feeders
Some of the best things to craft during the springtime are outdoor decor items such as bird feeders. Not only are bird feeders a decorative element for your yard, but they also help take care of the birds who call your neighborhood home. One of the simplest springtime crafts is the cup and saucer bird feeder. You can use an old tea cup and saucer to craft a unique bird feeding station. Simply turn the cup on its side and use a strong glue to attach it to its saucer. A large piece of twine can be tied around the cup handle, and once it’s dry you can hang this creation in your yard to feed the birds. (more…)
The Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates
As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its Fed Funds Rate (FF) this week by 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase since 2018.
What does this mean for mortgage rates and why are they rising? The FF rate affects the lending rate for credit cards, auto loans, adjustable rate mortgages, all of which are impacted by banks’ Prime Rate, which moves with the FF rate. Fixed Rate Mortgages – the typical 30-year mortgage – have a longer life and their benchmark is the closest Treasury security, which is the 10-year (10T).
Five charts explain the factors driving mortgage rates. In all cases the numbers are at the dates that the Fed has changed its FF since 2015: 9 increases followed by 5 decreases before this week’s rise. Because the purpose of this article is to show the link between FF, FRM and 10T the dates shown are only those on which the FF rate changed. Bear that in mind when looking at the charts below – they do not attempt to show all the price movements in between the dates shown. (more…)
Quick Upgrades to Transform Your Property
Photo by Blue Bird from Pexels
If you own a home, chances are you’ll make improvements at some point. Whether you’re looking to increase your property value or make your space better suited for your needs, there are many reasons you should follow through with these updates.
However, knowing where to start can be challenging. What renovation has the biggest impact on my property value? What upgrade is best suited for my family’s needs? Answering these questions can help point you in the right direction. But to help you find your starting point, we’ve listed a few popular home upgrades that can take your property to the next level. (more…)
Survey: Sellers Waiting Out Pandemic Are Ready to List
Homeowners have had all the usual reasons to sell over the past two years – marriages, deaths, children, etc. – but many hunkered down during the pandemic, and some feared the housing market because selling might be easy but finding a new home? Not so much.
A survey conducted by HarrisX for realtor.com, however, suggests that many of those people might be planning to list their home in 2022, with 65% of them planning to do so this winter and spring. The survey of 2,583 consumers was conducted online in September-October 2021.
Many sellers, however, want to set an asking price higher than they think their home is worth, and they expect buyer bidding wars.
When will sellers list? (more…)
Open Houses Sunday February 6th
It will warm up in time for today’s Open Houses:
Click on these links for details: (more…)
Can the Federal Reserve prevent a Recession?
The housing market is driven by the balance between supply and demand. Supply cannot be increased significantly quickly, so the only way for the booming housing market to slow is if demand drops. And the most likely causes for a drop in demand are either a major geopolitical development – such as Russia invading Ukraine and the US and its NATO partners deciding to respond militarily – or a recession.
Since World War II there has been a consistent pattern of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to control inflation and thereby triggering a recession. With the Fed finally acknowledging in late November that inflation was not transitory and committing to end its bond buying spree and also raise interest rates, will it be able to avoid a recession? Can this time be different?
The Boston Globe recently carried an excellent article on this subject by Jim Puzzanghera: ‘A hellishly difficult task.’ Can the Federal Reserve lower inflation without causing a recession?
“The virus is unpredictable. People’s responses to the virus are unpredictable. It’s not a garden variety business cycle by any means,” said Donald Kohn, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank who served as Fed vice chair from 2006-10. “It’s much harder to peer into the future and know how to calibrate your monetary policy.”
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, a forecasting firm, was more blunt. “The Fed has a hellishly difficult task right now,” he said. “There is absolutely no history for the Fed to lean on to deal with this kind of inflation.”
Most economists predicted last spring that high inflation would be temporary, pointing to the supply chain problems caused by restarting the US and world economies. But some economists warned the $1.9 trillion COVID aid bill enacted last March risked fueling longer-lasting inflation by pumping too much money into the already recovering US economy.
By last June even I was writing: “Should inflation prove to be more persistent than the Fed expects, then it is likely that the Fed will have to start to increase interest rates sooner and move them up more quickly than it currently expects. And mortgage rates would follow.
The Fed’s two goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment are known collectively as the “dual mandate.” In explaining its policy of keeping interest rates low – in part by buying large quantities of Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities, the latter helping to keep mortgage rates low – the Fed refers to the still high level of unemployment.
I have to admit that I struggle to understand how low interest rates, which boost asset classes such as stock prices and real estate, are helping to boost employment. Lower interest rates benefit those who own assets which appreciate.
I would like to see the Fed start to reduce (taper) its bond buying, while encouraging Congress to focus on removing barriers to employment – by providing increased child care allowances, for example. In other words, deal directly with the problem rather than hoping that benefits will trickle down somehow.”
Some quotes (more…)
Lynn’s Housing Production Plan approved by State
The city’s new housing-production plan, Housing Lynn: A Plan for Inclusive Growth, has been approved by the Massachusetts Department of Community Development (DHCD).
The five-year plan was submitted to DHCD after it was approved by the City Council on Sept. 7 and the Planning Board on Oct. 12, after months of work and input with community members.
The approval allows the city to meet its affordable-housing needs, while also allowing for preferences in many state-housing grants and infrastructure programs.
The city has never had a comprehensive housing plan and now joins 168 other Massachusetts communities with approved housing-production plans that are making an effort to solve the state’s affordable-housing crisis.
Mayor Jared Nicholson said this approval by DHCD is another step in the right direction: “It continues the momentum that we have witnessed over the past few years during the development of the plan to address one of the top issues our residents face,” said Nicholson. “The preparation of the Housing Lynn plan relied heavily on feedback from Lynn residents and a detailed review of market conditions, and as we look towards the implementation of the recommendations, we expect that to continue. We know how important these recommended actions will be to supporting growth that benefits the whole city and the impact they can have for cost-burdened residents.” (more…)
How Marblehead’s 2022 Property Tax Rate is calculated
The formula for calculating the property tax is actually very simple: take the $ amount of the previous year’s Tax Levy, add 2.5% for Proposition 2 1/2, and also add any New Growth (such as new construction or a condo conversion). This figure is the new tax levy. To this figure is added debt service – the Principal and Interest payable on the town’s debt. – to produce the total Tax Levy.
Here are the numbers for Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022, remembering that FY 2022 runs from July 2021 to June 2022. (more…)
January Inventory – how low can you go?
After increasing somewhat – albeit from a very low base – in the first several months of 2021, the seasonal drop-off after October after was just as sharp as in prior years – and again this is a reduction from a low level. 2022 is starting off at a seemingly impossible even lower level.
Single Family Homes
The % decline is almost irrelevant. More relevant is the months of supply shown.
Inventory now has less than 1 months’ supply overall and is only over 1 month – but still far below the 6 months deemed to reflect a market in equilibrium – at prices over $1.5 million.
Condos (more…)
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