Beverly Third Quarter Housing Review
The Single Family Home (SFH) market
The median price in Beverly in Q3 was flat with a year ago, consistent with the trend in Essex County overall. While prices have recovered from the effects of the great recession, the 2014 number is likely to come in some 4-5% below the peak level of $400,000 in 2004. (more…)
Today’s Posts will appear in the next hour
Third Quarter review for Beverly, Salem, Swampscott and Essex County will be published shortly. Check back!
Here’s where to pick a pumpkin today
After yesterday’s deluge today promises to be dry and sunny. Click on this post Where to pick pumpkins near Boston from Curbed Boston listing places where one can pick a pumpkin. And schedule the pumpkin picking around this Open House list. And watch the revitalized Patriots take on Buffalo.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Are you urban chic?
According to Tapestry, Marblehead is “urban chic”:
“We’re well-educated, married couple families and singles who live in the suburbs of major metros on both coasts. Professional and managerial positions in technical and legal occupations fund our exclusive, upscale, and sophisticated lifestyles. Portfolios are healthy, filled with stocks, bonds, and real estate investments. Our houses range in style from pre-war to new construction, high-rises or single-family homes; two-thirds of us own our homes. Tech savvy, we’re tops for owning Apple products, and use our devices to shop, bank, and research information. Leisure time is spent visiting museums, traveling, drinking imported wine, going out to the movies, skiing, and practicing yoga.” (more…)
Marblehead housing market now
The Single Family Home (SFH) market
The market in Marblehead continues to be quite active, with 15 Single Family Homes (SFHs) having received accepted offers already in October, compared with 21 in the whole of October 2013. New sales in September also showed a sharp increase over 2013, more than making up for the drop in August.
The first chart shows quarterly numbers for median prices for the last few years. The Q3 number is not a record. The YTD through September median price is $585,600 so for the full year we will end up very close to, or slightly higher than, the record of $585,000 set in 2006. It may come down to which of the houses under agreement actually closes before year end:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The current composition of houses available for sale shows an increase in supply at the lower end of late and also in the $1-2 million bracket. Both these segments have been active this year.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Looking at what has sold this year, note that sales from $500-749k have exceeded those under $500,000, a reversal of last year’s relationship, showing both that prices are increasing and buyers moving up.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The Condo Market
The condo market looks likely to emulate the SFH market ending 2014 very close to the 2007 peak of $346,000, as through 9 months the median price was $347,750:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
It is important to remember that the law of small numbers applies to condos in Marblehead. For example, sales to date in the $3-400k range (which will determine the year’s median price) and the gaps between sales have been as follows:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
The median through 9 months is the average of $328,000 and $367,500, or $347,750. One more sale outside these prices would move the median price by almost $20,000. This is why I comment on prices in the condo market on a semi-annual rather than quarterly basis.
Talking of sales, here are the numbers for the first 9 months of 2014 compared with 2013 and broken down by price range. The increase in the $500-749k range was what drove the increase in the median price.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
There is little change year over year in condos available for sale.
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
But look at the change over the last ten years:
Source: MLS, Oliver Reports
Marblehead is not only a small market for condos, but that market is split between a small number of purpose built condos and the HGTV-driven boom in “condo conversions” of older 2-4 unit apartment buildings. It is the latter market which has largely disappeared.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty. Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Housing Market 2014 – the first nine months
As promised last week I am publishing numbers for the first 9 months of 2014. These show that for Essex County and Massachusetts overall, sales of Single Family Homes (SFHs) are down slightly year-on-year, while prices are up slightly. There are, however, quite wide fluctuations from town to town: (more…)
Third Quarter Housing Review
Third quarter numbers for sales and median prices support the argument I have been making in recent weeks that we are now in a more stable market, having recovered from the 2008/2009 slump. As always, I caution against reading too much into one quarter’s numbers, particularly in those cases where the number of sales is small. Next week I shall publish a report for the first nine months of the year, which will provide a fuller picture of the market.
A good sign for the housing market is that the economy continues to improve with unemployment dropping below 6% for the first time since 2008, although the underemployment rate is still high at 11.8% and hourly earnings increased only 2% year over year. The latter numbers suggest that the Federal Reserve will not be rushing to raise interest rates, which is good news for mortgage rates. (more…)
Good news for 946,000 home owners
Another sign of the improving housing market came this week, as reported in this MarketWatch article 900,000 homes regain equity, about a report from CoreLogic that in the second quarter of 2014 some 946,000 home owners moved out of a negative equity position, meaning their houses were now worth more than their mortgage. (more…)
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Home Sales picking up in September
In addition to longer-term trends I try also to comment on current market conditions.
Whereas new sales (as in accepted offers rather than closed transactions) increased 8% in Essex County in August compared with a year ago, in Marblehead they dropped slightly. The numbers in August are small but we saw 17 new sales against 22 a year ago.
I believe that September’s new sales will give a lead as to how strong the market will be this winter. In Essex County new sales are already some 73% of last year’s total, so look likely to show an increase year on year. In Marblehead, new sales have reached 21, which compares with 18 in the whole of September 2014.
So far, so good.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Flood Insurance and Class Action Lawsuits: who benefits?
After spending some time last year negotiating flood insurance premiums with my insurance company my eye was attracted to this article:Bank of America settles Flood Insurance Lawsuit
Two things struck me about this article. First, of course, that BofA should have been forcing people to maintain excessive amounts of coverage. That probably comes as little surprise to most people, me included.
The second thing is the economics of the settlement. Out of the total award of $31 million, the settlement administrator gets $660,000, while the 359,320 members of the class action share $21.82 million. Sounds like a lot of money, but that is just 60 dollars and 73 cents per member. And for negotiating this magnificent settlement how much do the lawyers get? Want to guess? The answer is $7.7 million – yep, $7,700,000. And those on behalf of whom they have worked so diligently get $60.73 each.
Tort reform anybody?
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Detroit Housing Market continues to improve
In August 2013 I wrote Is Detroit real estate a bargain?
This article Detroit prices up 15% in August suggests the answer is Yes.
At an event called Detroit Homecoming this week, Warren Buffett commented that Detroit will be better, stronger after bankruptcy, while Michael Bloomberg stated that Detroit Is Just Like 1970s New York, And That’s A Good Thing.
Not long ago Detroit was not only written off as a disaster area but also held up as the example of what would likely happen to other former industrial cities. Signs of recovery are, therefore, particularly encouraging.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
How many Million Dollar Homes are there in Marblehead?
As I have been asked this question on a number of occasions I thought I would answer it: 743 according to my calculations, based upon Assessed Value (AV). Such homes represent 12% of Marblehead’s total housing stock. All data is taken from Patriot Properties.
Two disclosures: first, the numbers I am using are Assessed Values (AV) for the 2014 Fiscal Year and these are based upon sales during 2012. In my mid-year review I reported that the median sale in the first half took place at about a 12% premium to the current AV. As a reminder – and as explained in Twenty Questions with Marblehead Assessor – the FY 2015 tax rate, due to be announced in December, will be based on 2013 sales, while this year’s sales will be used in the FY 2016 assessments.
The second disclosure is that I calculated my numbers manually (and in case you care there are 175 pages of numbers on the Patriot Properties’ website). When I compared my numbers with the official aggregate statistics, however, I found that I was out by just 8 in over 6,000 Single Family Homes (SFH) and by 15 in nearly 1,000 condos. Close enough.
Source: Patriot Properties; Oliver Reports
I also looked at the data for Manchester-by-the-Sea and Swampscott. Clearly Marblehead offers the most choices for the luxury market with the exception of the very high end, over $5 million, where Manchester has the largest selection.
Sources: Dept of Revenue; Patriot Properties; Oliver Reports
One area where Swampscott is the clear winner is condos. It has 21 with an AV of $1 million or more compared to just 2 each in Marblehead and Manchester.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
Are there inexpensive homes in Marblehead?
Marblehead is often described as an affluent town, and with that goes the unspoken – and sometimes spoken – assumption that housing must be expensive.
I spent a happy afternoon recently going through the data on Patriot Properties and came up with some interesting numbers.
Two disclosures: first, the numbers I am using are Assessed Values (AV) for the 2014 Fiscal Year and these are based upon sales during 2012. In my mid-year review I reported that the median sale in the first half took place at about a 12% premium to the current AV.
As a reminder – and as explained in Twenty Questions with Marblehead Assessor – the FY 2015 tax rate, due to be announced in December, will be based on 2013 sales, while this year’s sales will be used in the FY 2016 assessments.
The second disclosure is that I calculated my numbers manually (and in case you care there are 175 pages of numbers on the Patriot Properties’ website). When I compared my numbers with the official aggregate statistics, however, I found that I was out by just 8 in over 6,000 Single Family Homes (SFH) and by 15 in nearly 1,000 condos. Close enough.
It does depend, of course, on how one defines “inexpensive”, but I was pleasantly surprised to discover that there are 3,402 SFHs with an AV under $500,000. And almost exactly half of those are under $400,000 ( I abbreviated the table below but can provide on request breakdowns by hundred thousand. The actual number is 1,511 in the $300-399k bracket and 1,698 in the $400-499k one).
As the table shows 55% of Marblehead’s SFHs have an AV below $500,000 and 88% are below $1 million.
Source:Patriot Properties; Oliver Reports
In the condo market 84% of the total are below $500,000 AV, with 56% under $300,000, while there are just 2 with an AV greater than $1 million.
Source: Patriot Properties; Oliver Reports
What does make buying an inexpensive house in Marblehead difficult is that we like our homes so much that we don’t sell very often. In fact, this year will likely see perhaps 240 sales or just 4% of the housing stock. And currently, there are just 19 for sale under $500,000.
Now you know the make-up of the market with AVs below $1 million, click here to read about those at $1 million and above.
Andrew Oliver is a Realtor with Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty.
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or [email protected].
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
So how does the Housing Market look after Labor Day?
After a summer which saw the highest number of sales of SFHs in Marblehead since 2004, where does the market stand after Labor Day?
Here are a few thoughts and, of course, numbers: (more…)
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