New Listings week before Thanksgiving
The election, new COVID-19 restrictions and the upcoming holidays combined to produce just a small number of New Listings again this week. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
Does nobody want to leave Marblehead?
Marblehead has a population of around 20,000 and more than 6,250 Single Family Homes (SFH).
In a normal year perhaps 250-300 of these change hands, which is a remarkably low number. Once people move to Marblehead they are very reluctant to leave! And that was true even before COVID-19.
Everybody has heard how low inventory is, but how low is very low?I looked at the inventory of SFHs for sale on this date for the last 20 years. (more…)
Why now is a GREAT time to sell
The election, more COVID restrictions, Thanksgiving less than two weeks ago, Hanukkah starts on December 10 and Christmas is two weeks later.
All these are reasons not to sell right now but wait for the New Year – boy, aren’t we all waiting for and looking forward to the end of 2020!
But I would like to suggest that, in fact, this is a great time to sell. Inventory is remarkably low – read Does nobody want to leave Marblehead? (more…)
Mortgage Rates: another Head Fake or Early Warning?
Back in June I wrote Mortgage rate head fake, when mortgage rates jumped but only very briefly.
On Wednesday this week I wrote: “In normal times, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) is priced based upon the extra yield investors require over and above that which can be received on the US 10-year Treasury Note (10T). In recent years that extra yield – spread – has averaged 1.7%.
2020, as you may have noticed, has not been normal. In the peak of the disruption to mortgage markets in April the spread reached 2.7%, as the yield on 10T was driven sharply lower, dropping from 1.8% at the beginning of the year to as low as 0.55%.
But recently, the yield has been climbing and now approaches 1%. And the spread over 10T has been under 2% for the last three weeks.”
Here is a chart of the spread in recent years and by quarter in 2020: (more…)
Open Houses Sunday November 8
Here are today’s Open Houses (as always, rather more Open Houses are scheduled for today than were shown when the list was published yesterday) (more…)
Open Houses weekend November7/8
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)
Gorilla invades Marblehead
Tom Saltsman, the Marblehead architect, is famous for creating larger-than-life Halloween installations at his home, 32 Pleasant Street. This year his creation is Kong, a 22 ft tall gorilla. The big ape is crouching in front of Saltsman’s garage. When he awakes this weekend, Kong will make movements and noises. To maintain suspense, Saltsman didn’t want to reveal any more details.
Halloween New Listings
Here are the latest New Listings. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
Open Houses Halloween weekend
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday.) (more…)
Open Houses weekend October 24/25
Here are this weekend’s Open Houses. This list will be updated on Sunday morning (because of the quirks of MLS some of the Sunday Open Houses don’t show up on Saturday. (more…)
New Listings week ending October 23
Here are the latest New Listings. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong. (more…)
New Listings week ending October 9
Here are the latest New Listings. See below to see how low supply is for the towns, while demand remains strong.
Click on these links for the New Listings:
Marblehead New Listings
Swampscott New Listings
Salem New Listings
Beverly New Listings
Lynn New Listings
These tables show that inventory is greatly reduced from a year ago:
And read these recent articles:
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
No improvement in Inventory in October
If you – or somebody you know – are considering buying or selling a home and have questions about the market and/or current home prices, feel free to contact me on 617.834.8205 or Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com.
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of Oliver Reports . He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
No improvement in Inventory in October
The number of Single Family Homes (SFH) in Essex County receiving offers recovered strongly from May onwards, and for the last four months has been ahead of 2019. YTD numbers are now very similar to 2019 levels. The numbers would have been even stronger in recent months but for the chronic shortage of supply.
Single Family Homes
After years of decline, the number of SFHs for sale in Essex County on the first of the month compared with a year earlier (YOY) increased from August 2018 until June 2019. The decline then resumed, and has accelerated in 2020:
The next two charts (the first for January to June; the second July to December) show the number of SFHs for sale on the first of the month since 2018. In the first chart the numbers for 2020 YOY show the renewed decline (in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year).
The second chart shows the decline YOY each month since July 2019 (note the decline both from 2018 to 2019 and again, much sharper, from 2019 to 2020).
Condos
The number of condos for sale increased YOY from June 2018 until August 2019, but since then there has been a decline which has accelerated somewhat in 2020:
These two charts show numbers since 2018 for January to June, and July to December.
The first chart shows the decline in 2020 YOY, while in 2019 inventory was increasing in the first 6 months of the year.
The second chart shows inventory has been declining since October 2019, with the rate of decline accelerating in 2020..
Supply
While the overall inventory of 1 month of supply remains well below the 6 months traditionally regarded as representing a market in equilibrium, supply as usual becomes freer the higher the price bracket.
Comment
The market in recent months has been characterised by the twin challenges of reduced inventory and increased demand, with buyers from Boston adding to local demand; and both aided by record low mortgage rates.
We are back to the most basic economic equation: when demand exceeds supply, prices rise. In housing, that often results in bidding wars, as we are seeing frequently now. My Q3 market reports will be published shortly and will make interesting reading.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Sale, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
Andrew Oliver
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
So, how much have house prices gone up?
Anecdotally, we have all heard about how prices outside Boston are booming, as people move out of the city, but how much have prices actually gone up?
Because small numbers can – and do – produce misleading statistics, I look for large numbers, as in my quarterly reports. I have, however, calculated the monthly median prices for Essex County SFHs and for Boston condos. After these charts, I will also give an early indication of what the third quarter will look like in Marblehead and Swampscott.
Essex County SFH
This chart shows the monthly median prices for the last 4 years. The blue top line is 2020. After being around $500,000 for the first few months, the median price moved to $545,000 in July and to $575,000 in August. These are, of course, monthly numbers which can fluctuate, but it is also worth noting that the numbers for August refer to sales contracted in June for the most part.
This table shows the quarterly progression. Q2 and Q3 are normally the highest quarters for the year.
Boston Condos
This chart is less clear, but the table below shows that median prices are little changed from 2019 YTD and have been declining quarter by quarter in 2020.
Marblehead and Swampscott
After being below $700,000 in Q1 and Q2, the Q3 median SFH price will blow through not $700,000 but $800,000 – and comfortably at that.
In Swampscott, however, the median SFH is likely to be similar to the 2019 level. Some interesting analysis when I write my Q3 reports.
Goodbye Boston, Hello Marblehead
Housing Inventory chronically low while demand is strong
Mortgage rates dip below 3% – where to next?
Andrew Oliver
Market Analyst | Team Harborside | teamharborside.com
REALTOR®
Sagan Harborside Sotheby’s International Realty
One Essex Street | Marblehead, MA 01945
m 617.834.8205
www.OliverReports.com
Andrew.Oliver@SothebysRealty.com
Sotheby’s International Realty® is a registered trademark licensed to Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC. Each Office Is Independently Owned and Operated
“If you’re interested in Marblehead, you have to visit the blog of Mr. Andrew Oliver, author and curator of OliverReports.com. He’s assembled the most comprehensive analysis of Essex County we know of with market data and trends going back decades. It’s a great starting point for those looking in the towns of Marblehead, Salem, Beverly, Lynn and Swampscott.”
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